Sorry, guess I read too quickly. I even thought I looked at it twice because I didn't understand why tanking was there.
That's an unreliable statistic, because the top-rated QBs are taken by the worst teams and it takes a while for them to build if they have the right GM and CS. Burrow was the #1 pick this past draft. He was definitely one of the best QBs in the NFL prior to his injury. Both Mahomes and Watson should have been drafted earlier. The only reason they weren't is because there are a bunch of dumbass incompetent GMs in the NFL
It’s not an argument, it’s a fact. The question is what argument being made with the fact, and that argument is clear — being concerned a year out that there are only two QB prospects worth taking next year, and the Jets won’t have the chance to get a QB next year if they aren’t drafting high, has no basis in reality.
You’re clearly wrong: Brady — 6th round Mahomes — 10th pick Foles - 3rd round Peyton Manning — 1st pick Wilson - 3rd round Flacco — 18th pick Rodgers - 24th pick Brees - 2nd round Roethlesberger - 11th pick Eli Manning - 1st Brad Johnson — 9th round Kurt Warner - Undrafted Trent Dilfer — 6th pick Only two winning QB’s in the last 20 years were drafted in the top five, the Manning Bros. The next highest is Trent Fucking Dilfer at 6. I’m not sure what you could possibly be confused about in this regard.
I guess I did not misunderstand you after all. Let me try to explain, I hope you read with open mind. You are only talking only about SB winners here - 13 guys, which statistically not very significant, but even if you take this set, it is very obvious that there is more chance to get a SB winning QB higher in the draft. Don't look at top 5 as an absolute construct. With 13 guys total, there will be a lot specific picks that are not one of them, so you need to analyze the patter here. Otherwise you might make a an absolute foolish conclusion that there is a better chance to sign undrafted QB to win a SB than say if you have #2, #3 pick in the draft. Examine the pattern. If you look at first 32 picks (first round today), that's 8 out of 13 guys. Actually, should be 9 out of 14 as Wentz and Foles both contributed to Eagles SB team in very large capacity, with Carson actually winning more games. Yet how many guys were picked in first round as compared to ALL other rounds? And you are including undrafted as well, how many 1st round QBs as compared to ALL College QBs? You don't need to be a genius even in your small sample set to see that 1st round gives a better chance. Further, out of the first 32 selections (9 SB champs), 6 were picked in top 11. That means only 4 were picked in next 21. Now, in top 6 picks, you have 4 SB champs. That's 29% of all SB champs in last 20 years were selected with top 6 selections (representing only 2% of the draft). Listen, even in your set the pattern is crystal clear. The higher you pick the more chance you get. And now you can see teams drafting QBs higher because of it. In 2018 four QBs went top 10. This year we draft pretty high, and draft is considered by all standards QB rich. Next year, even if someone blossoms like say Zach Wilson did this year, that guy is likely going top 3 too. We are likely not going to be in top 3. You need to take opportunities when they are presented, and now is the time.
I’m not arguing against taking a QB this year at 2 or arguing against taking a QB high in general. I’m arguing against the idea that not doing so this year means we could not get a great QB, in which the likelihood to lead us to a SB victory is the ultimate measurement, if we don’t draft as high next year. The statistics show a QB pick outside the top 5 is more likely to win the SB and thus arguing our pick might be too low next year to get a QB as the basis of having to do so this year at 2, has no empirical basis in reality.
Am I reading that right, at the bottom of the 1st tweet, is he saying that the Panthers have offered us the number 8 pick a 5th and? I am not sure what the and leads to? If it was Bridgewater then even better lol to but if they offered the 8th pick then how is Sam not on a plane to Carolina right now?
That was their offer to Detroit. If you click the picture you'll be able to see the full thing. Kinda off topic... I miss the days when Clayton was the be all end all. Then the internet took over and the industry left him in the dust.
If you click on the tweet it takes you to twitter, then click on the top part of the tweet to see the whole statement. Carolina offered their 8th, Bridgewater and a 5th rounder for Stafford
Those kinds of stats are irrelevant to me. If the Jets like Wilson or Fields, you take him at #2. Otherwise, he won't be available to you. If you don't like them enough, then trade down for sure. Don't just take a QB to take a QB.
If Douglas decides to dradt a QB I can 100% guarantee you that he thinks that the best move for team. He wouldn't be doing it to appease knuckleheads like me Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Would you want to trade down from 1 as well (assuming we had it)? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
Can you read my post above again, even with your own 20 year data, 29% of all SB champs come from top 2% of the draft picks (top 6), and 43% of SB champs (top 11) come from top 4% of the draft. The data is OVERWHELMING that you need to pick high. Outside of top 11, the rest 96% of picks have only 57% of SB champs. Think of it like this. Say there are 100 guys got a pie of 100 slices. 2 guys from that group get 29 slices. Next two guys get 14 slices. Then remaining 96 guys split up 57 slices. You want to be one of the top 4 guys, ideally first two, no? Right now you are. Next year you will likely be one of the 96 guys. The statistics you are referring to, or rather probability in the case you presented, say eat your pie now.
