With our QB situation still in flux, it wouldn't surprise me if JD trades down in 2021 for 2022 draft capital, JUST IN CASE he needs to draft Sam's replacement. JD may trade down just enough to pick up a 2022 first. That'd give him 3 firsts in 2022. More than enough to get a future QB, if needed. So many ways this can go!
Many of the media-types just do not understand what is happening this season with the cap crunch. You see writer after writer talking about the Stafford deal as if it was a talent deal, not a desperate LA Chargers avoiding the cap crunch deal. This leads them to look at the compensation that Stafford brought as being about his talent level (which it was not) instead of about Goff's cap hit (which it was.) This fundamental misunderstanding about that deal, which was *all* about LA getting out of a very bad QB deal at the same time that the cap suddenly and unexpectedly collapsed, has led a lot of people to prognosticate on Wentz's value in a way that likely does not come close to reality. Sam Darnold is not worth a package of picks right now but he has a very low cap hit for next year for whomever acquires him. Wentz on the other hand has a sizeable cap hit *and* his current team is desperate to get out from under his contract and his cap hit this season. That means that in this cap-crunched season the odds are the Jets will get more for Darnold than the Eagles will get for Wentz. The Eagles are screwed either way because even if they trade Wentz they take a cap hit that hurts their cap for the year. To avoid that outcome they have to trade him post-Jun 1st and to get there they have to find $50M+ in cap cuts in less than a month. Then they have to find whatever their rookie class costs in cap cuts after the draft. Put another way the Jets dilemma with Darnold is based solely on whether the new HC and OC and JD think he can be turned into a positive asset. The Eagles dilemma revolves around whether the new HC likes him, whether they can jump multiple hoops on the cap to keep him and finally if neither of those looks possible whether they can manipulate enough contracts between now and the opening of the league year to be able to trade Wentz without making the problem worse.
This is smart. I'm glad we finally have a front office that manipulates the media to our advantage rather than leaking our true intentions constantly.
The wording here ("involved") makes me think scenarios like I laid out a few days ago in this thread could be in play.
Too lazy to go back and look, but I'm assuming you said it could be Darnold + a day 2/3 pick for a first rounder? I would sign up for that. Having multiple firsts in this draft opens up a ton of options and if we could trade two of them for Watson and STILL have one... that's just ideal. So is having three first round picks in general.
I totally disagree. That makes no sense if JD and Saleh care about their careers. Rolling with Sam and not drafting a QB would be totally stupid and risking their careers, and both would deserve to be fired if they did that and then Sam played at the same terrible level next season.
I disagree. That's victim mentality. Sam has played a part in this as well. No NFL coach should have to tell a QB that was taken #3 in the draft to throw the ball away rather than take a sack or run out of bounds and lose yardage, No NFL coach should have to tell a QB that was take #3 in the draft not to throw into double and triple coverage. No QB taken that high and on his 4th year in the NFL should have a problem not being able to see the field, have the horrible footwork that he has, or have the problem with decision making that he does. QBs can and do flourish in spite of their surroundings of bad coaching if they're mentally strong and have the right mindset. I don't think Sam is mentally strong or has the right mindset, so it wouldn't matter if we surrounded him with sure fire HOFers at the skill positions and hired the best QB coach in the game.
This is not a great draft for DEs/Edge Rushers and you don't burn top picks on D when your offense sucks and you have no QB worth a damn.
There is no Darrelle Revis or Lawrence Taylor in this draft. Using the #2 pick on a QB is not "blowing" it. SMH
This is just not true. There is no reason they cannot start building the team this year and play Sam. That does not mean they are married to him long term and cannot draft, trade for or sign a FA QB next offseason.
No you don't. It's not set in stone that the Jets will be running Shanahan's offense. They could be running the GB offense.
Ok, here's one scenario where Darnold is worth a lot to a team in a cap crunch situation. The Saints are $74M over the cap right now. Somehow they are paying Taysom Hill, their backup QB a $7.59M guaranteed salary this year and he has a $16.159M cap hit for the year - most of which cannot be ducked in a cut situation. They also have Drew Brees signed to a renegotiated contract for the moment that has reduced his once heavy cap hit down to $12.25M for the year - with a further $11M due when he retires after June 1st. The Jets could give the Saints $19M in cap relief by trading them Sam Darnold for Taysom Hill and Janoris Jenkins. Darnold's guaranteed roster bonus, normally due on the 5th day of camp per his contract comes due on the Jets at the moment they trade him. His cap number for the Saints in 2021 would be $920K guaranteed salary. Hill would hit the Saints cap for $4M in dead money when he was traded - a savings of $12M. Jenkins would hit the cap for $6M on the way out the door but save the Saints another $8.2M. The transaction would give the Saints cap relief and help them out of some of their guaranteed contract debacles. The problem is that the Jets wouldn't really be gaining anything in the deal. A 31 year old backup QB and a 33 year old CB who is a significant risk to decline in the next year or two. The Saints would be getting a young cap-light QB for 2021 who might be very valuable and some real cap relief. So how do you make up the difference for the Jets? One way to get the Jets back some real value in the deal would be to throw in a draft pick or two on the Saints side of the ledger. Say the Saints give the Jets their 2nd round picks this year and next as sweeteners in the deal or maybe their 1st next season. Another way that might be more to the Saints liking would be to throw in a good young player with an unfortunate contract situation given the cap crunch. Marshon Lattimore is going to be a UFA at the end of 2021 just like Darnold. He has a $10.2M cap hit for the Saints this year. It's not guaranteed but the Saints aren't in a good position to extend him with the cap crunch possibly continuing into next season. Letting him go in the deal would extend the cap relief to $30M and the only real value they let go in the deal was Lattimore who is a pending free agent anyway. In that scenario the Jets have rebuilt their defensive backfield for 2021 in a hurry. Now all they have to do is sign Marcus Maye and they're good to go back there. The cost? Sam Darnold. Given that the Jets have some cap space they probably want to sign Lattimore at the time they do the deal and it would be more than reasonable to ask the saints for permission to negotiate with Lattimore before the deal goes through. Note that the Jets got out of their cap squeeze in 2002 by dealing Aaron Glenn and Marcus Coleman to the Texans in return for leaving an OT the Texans wanted exposed in the expansion draft. Jets got cap relief and the Texans got 2 CB's and a potential LT to start their team with.
Yes, though not necessarily a Day 2/3 pick if it's #23 that's upgraded: If they want to try and play that game with the 49ers and #34 (Darnold & #34 for #12), it values Sam as the 36th pick in the draft, or an early 2nd rounder.
This isn’t the last draft class in history in which good QB’s are going to come out. If they run with Darnold, and he doesn’t turn it around, they’ll get a QB next year. They aren’t getting fired for not drafting a QB this year.
Then what if Sam goes to play for the Niners, in a similar offense, and goes on to produce the way a lot of people think he can in a Shanahan offense? All of a sudden you could have had your QB while being able to trade back from 2 or take Smith at 2. All I've been saying this whole time is that it's not outlandish whatsoever to think it's an option. And if they run the GB offense, it's derived from the Shanahan offense.
It most certainly is true imo. You can be free to disagree, but I don't believe that Sam can be fixed here or in one year. Thinking that he will play well in 2021 is delusional imo and not dealing with reality. Waiting until next year to get a QB would be stupid for a number of reasons. One, they probably won't be in position to draft one of the top 2 QBs next year, and next year will be a lesser draft for QBs. Book on it. Two, they'd have to trade up and burn draft capital to get one of those lesser prospects, which would be stupid when they can have their choice this year of three QBs all of whom are probably better prospects than any QB in next years draft not named Sam Howell, and even him I'm not so sure of. Three, they would be delaying putting their offense together for a year, which would delay their being truly competitive at least another year Four signing a FA QB next year would be brain dead level stupid. In all likelihood, there won't be a FQB in FA next year, and it would just delay building the offense and finding our future QB for another year or two, and possibly a lot longer, as JD would continue improving the team in FA and the draft, and they could be drafting in the 20s within a year or two. They'd have no real shot at getting to or winning a SB, but also would have no real shot of trading up to draft a QB who could get them there. Have you paid any attention to Jets' history or what happens with other teams looking for QBs? It sure doesn't sound like it.
