What's the 180? I think that's true though. The more dominos fall the more urgency teams that want to make a QB upgrade will have.
It was. Ugly first half for BYU too. Not Wilson specifically but the whole team looked bad. If Lawrence is as good as he's touted to be (and I think he will be) then he's a great fit for any team that drafts him. There's a give and take to any system. Lawrence was actually a really good play action passer, it was just run primarily out of the shotgun in an RPO-style offense. He sees the field well though. Not really sure how he wouldn't be a good fit here.
Evidently, he was saying that Darnold would not be traded and would be back as the Jets' QB. Now he's saying that he thinks he will be traded.
The difference is the original view was purely his own, and does not hold too much water, and now he is saying what he hearing from sources as an insider.
I don't want to bring Watson into this, who is a 3 time Pro Bowler and led NFL in yards this year to compare to rookies. As far as rookies though, I have a feeling Mac Jones may climb these boards. Just got another stat on him where he had the highest ever QBR in College football, which is consistent with pff highest ever grade as well. Yes, he had supporting cast, but still he has to be credited as well for these historical achievements. He measured out well, so size is not an issue at 6'2.5" 117lbs. Arm strength is there too, not at level of Wilson but above average to average starting QB in NFL. Tua went #5 last year, and Mac, while not as mobile, basically is better in every single other category, including size. If Wilson measures well, he will be #2 to the Jets. Too much arm talent, the fact that he is #2 overall graded player in pff history, and #1 passer in history using advanced pff metrics, best tight windows passer in history by wide margin, best 20+ yards downfield % in 2 decades, and had great athleticism and mobility will make him #2 as long as measurements are at or above 6'2" 115lb. After that I am thinking Fields, Mac Jones, and Lance, probably in that order, but could change. Hoping for all to be gone before Patriots pick!
I’d hesitate a great deal with an Alabama QB, just like I do with an Ohio State QB it’s been a long time since Alabama produced a great NFL QB. Don’t know if both Greg McElroy and AJ McCarron won national titles, but they led strong teams. I just think that both of those schools dominate by sheer talent, especially on OL and running games, so that their QBs don’t have to carry anything. They don’t have the bulk of the pressure in them. They typically have a lot of time to throw behind dominant OLs and they also tend to have great receivers, especially Alabama as of late. I don’t know, I just don’t trust QBs from those schools. I am certainly not on the Fields train, and not on the Mac train either....but at least Mac would be a mid to late first rounder, if that, unlike Fields, who I think may slip come draft day, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t go top ten. I just hope it’s not us who takes him there....
There are plenty of articles describing such scenarios; here's Bart Scott's take from a few weeks ago. Bart Scott: Jacksonville Jaguars, Urban Meyer should trade No. 1 pick for Deshaun Watson (247sports.com) It would be a rare deal within the same division but odder things have happened and would solve a problem each team has.
I like Wilson a lot but don't buy into using numbers or analytics to scout QBs. If you have a metric or number you like overlay it on the last couple draft classes and see what you get. I remember CBS using analytics to push the idea that rag arm Mason Rudolph was the top QB in the 2018 draft.
What I've read and heard about these QBs, there may not be much to separate them talent wise. Yeah sure, Lawrence seems to be the most talented and most complete package of three of them (Lawrence, Fields, Wilson) but the most mentioned trait regarding Lawrence has been his maturity level off the field. He's the most pro-ready prospect at his position in a long time. But these all are just young kids, maturity comes from experience. In a few years time they most likely all will be mature and professional athletes playing at high levels in the NF. Of course there's no quarantees, there's always a chance one can turn out to be a new Manziel. What I'm saying is that looking to future, there is a real possibility that Lawrence is not the best player out of these players. I would still draft Fields @2 and build around him, maybe sign some veteran for a year, but I wouldn't be upset if we end up with Wilson either.
I definitely know Baker was rated as the previous best ever, but this does not take into consideration his small height, which may be limiting him, the fact he was a bit older than a typical College player. Mahomes for example had most yards 20+ downfield, and second overall in class for clean pocket accuracy. Watson was was second overall on 20+, and 3d overall in accuracy. Both mobile very athletic players, not unlike someone like Wilson/Fields. Rudolph was solid across the board with good stats and rating, but looks like best achievement was #5 in class rating from clean pocket, which I am not sure is good for someone who is completely immobile as he is:https://www.pff.com/news/draft-steelers-select-james-washington-76th-overall . And that's the thing about Mason though: he was unathletic and immobile statue, to the point where he refused to participate in some combine drills where you need some coordination. Probably less athletic Trask would be the best comparison to this draft. Overall, I think people need to realize that advanced stats and pff ratings is not the end all. What it does is cleans up the regular stats and also break it down into meaningful categories: https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-qb-grading-most-effective-tool-there-is. It is just one very important evaluation criteria, but should not be looked in vacuum. You still need to look at film, combine, measurements, leadership, you still need to see who he played with, who he played against, assess mobility, athleticism, arm talent, etc... However, I feel it would be foolish to ignore these statistics also and not make it a major piece of the puzzle as it helps to uncover things you may not see otherwise.
I need to watch more Mac Jones, but at least initially, I'm not impressed. At this point, I'd rather NOT take a QB than take Mac Jones. I don't want any more statues in the pocket, and I don't think he has the arm for NE winters, either.
Tim Jenkins is pretty decent breaking down Xs and Os, including cerebral evaluation as well. He is probably the guy with most credentials I have seen to break down Xs and Os of multiple recent films on prospects to evaluate them. College QB before, even got a shot to NFL and CFL. QB coach presently at multiple levels starting with youth. JT O'Sullivan is another reputable one, former NFL QB, HS coach. Tim's breakdown of multiple Wilson's games combined into one video: JT's breakdown of a game where Zach threw his only "real" interception:
These two guys are two of my favorite analysts, although I have to admit that I struggle at times to understand Tim Jenkins, but bot guys seem fair about their break downs and highlight the bad along with the good. At 16:00 into the 1st tape, Tim makes a really good observation about Wilson's footwork, and what he would do if he were his QB coach in the NFL, and I immediately thought: "Shit! This is the stuff they should've done with Darnold but obviously didn't". And I like how he really hones in on how much the footwork needs to be cleaned up for him - again, this was a KEY issue for Sam coming out and apparently the Jets - under TWO CS didn't do anything about that. If Wilson gets a chance to sit and learn a bit like Mahomes did, and works on cleaning up his footwork, I think he can be one of the top QBs in the NFL.
TL;DR: 1: Watson/R. Wilson 2: Darnold 3: Prescott/Winston 4: Z. Wilson/ Lance It's tough, but the Jets are in a pretty excellent situation. With a Shanahan offense, the Jets can get Grappolo level production out of Darnold IF (and it's a big IF) he's willing to finally give up the gunslinger style from USC and play within the system. He's got the physical tools to run even a Titans style RPO, or a SF style PA based system. Whichever LaFleur the Younger chooses, Darnold has to be on board. (We know from his USC days that Darnold has the ability to generate offense on the scramble drill, now called "second play" offense.) If they're sold on this, then it's likely that they try to trade out of the spot, and draft Sewell if they can't. (Yes, not optimal.) If Douglas and his CS (Saleh/LaFleur) love a prospect, I don't think that they'll hesitate getting Wilson/Fields/Lance/Jones/Trask in this draft. After Lawrence, there's plenty of reasons to think that any of those guys could be the best pick. Jones and Trask, while unexciting prospects, could run the SF style PA base system with high confidence, and will likely produce at the Garrapolo level. Wilson, Fields, and Lance could produce in either an RPO or PA system, but their comparables range from Rodgers to Manziel; not exactly what one looks for if they're betting their GM or coaching career. It's likely that they pass unless their confidence is high. That leaves the free agent and trading options. A lot of the focus is on Watson because, with a high degree of certainty, the Jets would get Watson level performance throughout his career (obviously). Less attention has been paid to other trade targets (Wentz, Hurts, Garrapolo, Wilson, Goff), or free agent targets (Prescott, Brissett, Winston, Beathard -- all of whom are under 30). Douglas will do his due diligence on all these targets. After Watson, the most interesting are Prescott, Wilson, Wentz, and Winston. The cap carryover into 21 and 22 allows Douglas to guarantee any reasonable sum of money to Prescott for two years, which is important given the injury. Prescott brings close to Watson level appeal, which, combined with Saleh, would make the Jets a prime FA destination. If he can be acquired for a reasonable sum, Wilson would also make the Jets a FA destination because he earns receivers money. (Put Doug Baldwin, Ricardo or Tyler Lockett, Luke Willson on another team, and they might as well be Braxton Berrios.) The Hawks would take picks for Wilson because he's over 30 and has a huge cap hit; however, the Hawks likely won't trade Wilson because that's not what "old school" organizations do. There's a drop off with Wentz and Winston; however, both are younger, talented, and love to play hero ball. That said, with Wentz, there's hope that benching fixed his head and put his ego in check, and with Winston, there's hope that an internship under Brees might correct some of his more childish behaviors. To answer the OP question, if Douglas can get Watson (or Wilson) for a reasonable price (say, the two 1sts this year, a 2nd next year with swap rights for a 3rd in 2023; or the #2 this year, the higher of the Jets/Seattle 1sts next year, and the Jets' 1st in 2023; or the #2 this year, the Seattle 1st next year, and any combination of players under contract not named Becton, Mims, or Williams, plus eating two bad contracts -- in Houston's case, think Merciless and MCKinney), that's a no-brainer. Barring that, if Douglas and the CS believe in Darnold, they should roll with him. If they're on the fence, and Douglas can get a late 1st or early 2nd for Darnold this year (or a future 1st), they should take the deal and run. If Douglas and the CS are this far down the decision tree, they've likely made a decision about a draft prospect, other trade, or free agent. If Douglas hits on key FA signings and feels the window is open, he needs a seasoned QB. Douglas can offer Dak more guaranteed money than almost any other team. If he can get Prescott on a multiyear deal -- say five years with the first two fully guaranteed and a team option for the balance -- he has to take it because that's as close as one can get to Watson/Wilson without giving up draft capital. In the absolute worst post-Darnold trade scenario, the Jets can sign Winston to a five year prove-it deal (say 10M guaranteed for the first year, 5M guaranteed for next year, with a team option in 2023 for the balance). If Darnold is traded and Douglas and the CS need more time to open the window, then it's a draft prospect. While Jones and Trask are safe selections, as prospects, they don't appear to have a higher ceiling than Darnold. Wilson and Lance have the highest ceilings. Pairing them with a Fitz/Taylor mentor QB would be relying on a proven formula. If they can trade down to 7/8 and secure future picks, Douglas can likely get Lance, while stockpiling; if not, Wilson at #2 is worth the lottery ticket. Either way, the Douglas has the Jets setup with money and draft capital even better than in 2014. This offseason will set the tone for the next decade, so let's hope that he doesn't Idzik this one up. Ball's in Douglas' court and about how he plays it... https://media.giphy.com/media/3owyoYjmvDijECcQTu/giphy.gif
My issue with Sam is I hope he can be coached out of the offense he’s been in for a few years. It seems he’s been coached to a point where he will take that dump off or first read which is the short pass way too often. I didn’t see many times where he let his man make a play one on one on the outside. Especially a guy like Mims, who has a rep of making contested catches, let Mims make a play...push the ball downfield. That’s a read Sam has to be comfortable in making and it seems like he didn’t. Even Perriman, who’s a fast guy, let him make a play. His downfield passing accuracy isn’t great though so that’s one of my biggest concerns. It’s a reason why I’d be FINE in taking Zach Wilson who can push the ball downfield and has the zip and ball placement to make all the throws.
That guy is such a tool. All you need to know about him is how his studio is set up, where he is towering over all of his guests, looking down on them like royal subjects. Pathetic.
Having the most cap space gives us the best shot at Dak Prescott if we want him. Trading down from # 2 gives us more ammo to build around him. The Bucs team that won last night was loaded at most positions. Trading all of our picks for a QB is not going to get us where we need to go.
