Chris. I think I'm seeing a snow ice storm for me!! Southern slider ?? Next weekend. Because of polar air storm gets started in MEXICO into the gulf and off the Florida coast. Big ice and snow....FOR ME LOL OK...FAR AWAY but both models have it Here is a pretty sure thing. The south is going to get hit hard.
Looks VERY active these next few weeks,,,,,models getting back on board for Sunday so far last night and today,,,,ps hate ice like snow
Cbg...fjf...and all weather lovers with patience I'm going to put an extremely long write up here. Whenever you think why are they predicting this or that...what do they see damn it!! Forget stupid weather sites and crazy shit. I know I have mentioned this to you guys in the past but this is the National Weather Forecast discussion for the NY nj lower Hudson valley area. Here they talk about why when who what and I can't stress enough that this the first place you should read. It updates at 430 pm and 430 am and constantly during a storm. So how do we find what the real experts are thinking? You save this link: https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.9606&lon=-74.242#.YBzDM2ROkew Once you open it and I know many have seen this...you scroll down and open "forecast discussion" Then you start to read. Some of it will take getting used to. The lingo is a bit rough in spots but it will get easy. Then you check models and form your thoughts. They are conservative. But the brightest of the bright. Do I agree with them all the time? No...but I know how they write and build on their being conservative and why they eliminate certain models. Again...not always right but great direction. Below is their write up for the next week. If it makes you dizzy just go to long term forecast. Trust me...this is always my first read. Their radar is hands down best as far as intensity. Of course put your zip code in for different areas. The discussion will only change if you leave their area. Trust me...great stuff...longest post ever lok. National Weather Service New York NY 942 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves over the area this evening. A frontal system approaches late tonight into Friday and crosses the region Friday night. High pressure briefly returns on Saturday. Low pressure will pass east of the region on Sunday. A frontal system may impact the area during middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tweaked temps down a bit more as most of the thicker clouds remain west of the area. Also, adjust low temperatures as some areas have dipped below forecast lows. Otherwise the fcst was on track. Once these clouds move into the forecast area, temperatures should level off and/or rise overnight. Surface ridge axis briefly builds over the region this evening and then moves offshore early Friday morning. Occluded low pressure over the Great Lakes region will then send a frontal system towards the area late tonight into Friday. A pre- frontal trough in advance of the front along with a shortwave axis lifts across New England Friday morning. Mostly clear skies and weakening winds will start tonight. As the ridge axis moves to the east, SW flow will develop ahead of the system providing increasing cloud cover into early Friday morning. Temperatures will likely drop fairly rapidly this evening with snow pack, mostly clear skies, and light winds. Then, temperatures will level off and possibly slowly rise near the coast towards day break as southerly flow increases. Lows will be in the lower 20s inland with middle and upper 20s most elsewhere. As the pre-frontal trough reaches the region, a band of precipitation will sweep across Friday morning. The models continue to trend weaker overall with generally one tenth of an inch of liquid equivalent. The biggest challenge will be with PTYPE for locations north and west of the NYC metro. Precip should be moving in from the west at the start of the morning commute and should be all light snow north and west of NYC. The precip onset could have a few wet snowflakes mixed in further east, but this is expected to be brief as the boundary warms fairly rapidly through the early morning hours. The boundary layer warming should continue making its way to the interior with some of the snow mixing with rain towards middle morning. The precip shield should be shifting east of the NYC metro after 15z and in the form of plain rain for most locations. The precip ends early afternoon as the prefrontal trough moves offshore. Snowfall accumulations of under an inch expected north and west of NYC. While not indicated in the forecast, there may be a brief period where snow growth ends aloft and the boundary layer is still around freezing. This could create some light icing. Will continue to mention in the HWO for the NW interior. Dry conditions return in the afternoon with temperatures in the lower 40s inland to the middle 40s near the coast. Southerly winds will also be breezy with gusts 20-25 mph possible near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another shortwave will lift across New England Friday night sending the main frontal system east of the area. The front moves through dry and will be followed by high pressure building to our south and west into Saturday. Low temperatures generally in the 20s are forecast on Friday night with high temperatures on Saturday will be near seasonable levels. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... An active wx pattern expected in the Long Term. The first sys is a coastal low which emerges off of the Carolina Coast around 12Z Sun, then deepens while tracking east of Cape Cod around 00Z Mon. This low looks like a classic 4-8 inch snow maker, with amounts dependent on the track. Right now, all of the modeling, except for the NAM, are too far east to place these higher amounts across the cwa. There is enough consensus however to increase snow chances to around 50 percent, and to introduce accums of up to 2 inches. A wwd trend closer to the NAM will require an increase in amounts. The area dries out Sun ngt and Mon. At the same time, an arctic airmass will be setting up over cntrl Canada. This will set up a general wly flow thru the week. With extensive snow cover from the Plains, thru the Midwest and Ohio Valley, there will not be much opportunity for airmass modification. The NBM may bee too warm thru the week as a result. A piece of energy will likely come thru on during the middle of the week. There is some uncertainty with timing and intensity, with the ECMWF slower and stronger. There is also some question as to whether the warm sector will get in and be sufficient to produce rain or at least a mix near the coasts. Chances for pcpn have been included Mon ngt into Wed, even though there will not be wx thru that entire period. Fair and cold wx is then fcst for the rest of the week. Although the NBM was still followed at this point, it may again be too warm, especially if snow cover is in place.
TOO SOON to tell but my guess is yes it just a matter of the storm track,,,,,2 days ago the models had this thing out to sea but they keep IMO correcting and receiving more data,,,,,,right now the coast gets more than N n W but if this thing keeps trending the way it has then me and F jay and others are in play,,,,if it trended too far North n West the coast gets mixing issues or maybe just rain,,,,as I said long ways to go,,,,,could still be a total miss and wide right out to sea but if the timing is right and it phases,,,,,,well then CBG and snow luvers smile and other guys will type " I hate you ",,,,,,lol------> thought's ?????? anyone ? Bueller ?
Super Bowl Sunday as of right now looks GOOD for snow,,,it all depends on the track on who gets what,,,,,,fast moving storm but if the models are correct it could dump a lot in a short time ? Does it track more West on the next few model runs ? I guess yes they always do,,,,thoughts ???
Let's see what the overnight model runs show but right now they show the NYC and the coast / LI getting hit pretty good with snow Sunday,,,,,a slight shift North n West ( which I expect ) gets even the immediate suburbs in on the fun,,,,still time for changes
Last night the models were more east which would mean less snow N n W of NYC and more for the coastal areas and LI but they also showed more dry which would be less liquid / snow period. Was that a glitch ? Lets see what the models show this morning and the later this afternoon,,,,still a very close call for all, a slight shift East or West would make a difference but as far as amounts I am not sure why the over night models cut the liquid by so much,,,,maybe it's a glitch or maybe they see something I don't ? Still time for changes,,,,,thoughts ?
You don't even have to look at weather models to know that this morning they are trending MORE WEST and Wetter,,,,,,thats all I am gonna say about that for now
NWS calling for 3-7” here in central Jersey, TWC calling for 4-7 as well...but 2ft over a small part of Madison.
Man. This time, I am rooting for at least 2 ft for Madison. We placed an offer for a house today but the sellers want to wait until tomorrow's Open House to see if there will be any additional interest. My offer is on the table until Monday 1 PM. If it snows tomorrow, I will most likely get my dream house. Snow please. @CBG @jaywayne12 @FJF What is Madison verdict tomorrow. Please tell me it is BIG SNOW
Looks pretty solid for you guys. General 4 to 8 according to nws but with this storm as cbg noted....fast mover so unlike other storms do not think you will see Jack pot areas much higher than that. After last storm it will be a bit easier but again....in and out so when it does snow it will come down at a good clip Rest of the week is pot luck and as usual polar vortex says huh? Wilmington snow?? Nah.
Models all over the place Jayster,,,,is this really more N n W than they are showing ? It could be right ? AND I get it that it could easily be more East,,,,tough call.
I am looking at the radar and its not the snow lover in me saying this but the storm sure seems more West to me than it was advertised and IF thats the case N n W will get more snow,,,lets see how it plays out,,,thoughts anyone ? Bueller ?
Looks like that arctic blast next weekend won’t make it as far south as the originally thought. Just cold rain for us.
