Thanks for the correction! Sorry, my bad. This makes me feel better. Labrum isn't nearly as bad as rotator cuff.
Crazy video. So much for easy competition. The D was in his face immediately and beating him like a rag doll. This boy is tough and got balls, but he had to run way, way too much for my taste. What an arm though? I can only imagine what he can do behind a stout OL.
Coastal is really the only good team they played all year and he looked average in the entire game. Not terrible but definitely didn't produce at a high level. To be fair to him and BYU they took the game on short notice with a ton of travel. They absolutely destroyed a bunch of teams that finished in the middle of the pack in group of five conferences all year like Navy, Houston and UTSA.
I would have to disagree with the overall sentiment. Yes, Zach has faced bunch of cupcake teams, but they also faced four top 50 FSB defenses this year, and Zach produced solid numbers each time. His averages against these defenses: 291.5 pass yards, 2.25 TDs/0.25 INTs, 69% Comp Pct., 0.75 rushing TDs per game. Secondly, I think Zach had a pretty good game again Coastal. Here is the entire game, so people can make their own conclusions. He had 92 TD pass taken away. The only INT is on a Hail Mary 63 yard pass to the end zone line. Amazing drive at the end from inside 10 of his own half, where he was a foot away from winning the game. I think this was a good game, even though he came up a foot short. Finally, not all, but a lot of the cupcake teams they faced, had pretty similar talent as BYU. He had to make a lot of passes in tight windows, and had the best ever rating throwing to these. Overall, he faced some cupcake teams, he faced teams that are similar in talent, and he faced 2 ranked teams, and 4 teams with really good defenses. He performed EACH TIME. There were no bad games. So, from competition perspective it wasn't I would say easy all the time, but mixed, and Zach came up with the goods.
Boise State was ranked for a hot minute and lost to the only two ranked teams they played. The teams they beat were a combined 12-19. So I'd hardly call them any sort of legitimate ranked team. Not to mention (and he obviously doesn't directly face him on the field), they caught Boise State with their third string quarterback - a true freshman who got thrown into the fire after the first series after Sears got concussed. That badly hurts the psyche of a team although again, not directly related to Wilson's performance. What metric are you using for top 50 defenses? Points allowed? So UTSA, Troy (who also got absolutely carved up by Zac Thomas at App State), San Diego State (good defense - granted), and Coastal. I mean this was a cupcake schedule dude. A lot of those "tight window" throws that were being held up to show he's the next Mahomes against a team like UCF were absolutely horrific plays by the defensive backs. And that's the same defense that got shredded by Jordan McCloud at USF who led his offense to the 102/127 offensive ranking. I watched the entire Coastal game (won the ML bet live woohoo!) and I just walked away unimpressed. We'll see what happens. I hope we draft him and he becomes Aaron Rodgers. I just don't personally see it and I watched a good amount of them. BYU was pretty loaded relative to who they played too. They're an independent that normally plays a heavy Pac-12 schedule every year and couldn't due to the only in-house conference rules the Pac-12 had. They recruit similarly to the Pac-12 (slight tier below) but they also weren't playing a bunch of group of 5 conference champions. They were playing a bunch of group of 5 mid-tier teams. In 2019 for reference they beat (at the time) ranked USC and Washington, unranked Tennessee and lost to Utah. Usually have a mix of 4-5 Pac-12 games and one other power 5 conference. This isn't a situation where BYU is normally just a group of 5 team. This was an oddball schedule for them.
You have to include Coastal when you look at combined record, and with that they faced teams that went 23-20. Cupcake schedule overall, perhaps, but there were decent opponents too. More like a mixed bag. Aside from the above 4 top 50 defenses, there was also Boise State, which was ranked at the time, 3d QB or not. The point is, there were enough decent teams and defenses, where Zach played well. As far as tight window throws, sure there were some plays that were bad, but his receivers are not that great either. Did you notice in Coastal game how Mitt Romney made quite a few drops, which could have gone for important gains? And it's not just some plays, Zach was rated highest ever in tight window completions and it is not even close, can't just chalk that up to bad defensive backs.
I'm not sure where you come up with 23-20. I was referencing the records of the teams that Boise State beat. BYU's opponents record was exactly 56-56 which coincides with what I was referencing regarding playing a bunch of middle of the pack Group of Five teams. Conference USA and the AAC were a combined 1-11 in bowl games this year. BYU played half of their games against teams from those conferences.
Thanks for the correction, I thought you referenced BYU and I just added Carolina to get to that number. 56-56 makes more sense as they played more games. The point though still stands - it was a mixed bag. By no stretch of imagination am I looking at this as a strong schedule. Just saying there were some decent teams/defenses he faced too and teams with similar supporting talent (Troy, UTSA, Boise, Coastal, San Diego, UCF), and did well each time. So, to get historical numbers that he did in multiple categories, was not an easy feat. It was no where near the level of comparatively to their own team much weaker competition that Lance or Mac Jones (who are also fine prospects but I think below Zach) faced their last year.
Any chance Zach Wilson will be the new Baker Mayfield in 2021? Remember in 2018, most of the year was Darnold vs. Rosen for the #1 pick, with most people assuming it would be Darnold. Then Mayfield came out of nowhere, his stock just kept rising, and became the #1 pick. Darnold dropped to #3 and Rosen ended up irrelevant. Now for 2021, most of the year was Lawrence vs. Fields with most people assuming Lawrence will be #1. Could Wilson come out of nowhere and become the #1 pick? Crazier things have happened.
I don't expect that to happen. There was no consensus top QB prospect in 2018 like there is in 2021. Wilson could be the second QB off the board though.
Yeah, I guess he still is doing a similar thing to Mayfield by skyrocketing up draft boards and potentially passing Fields and Lance, but like you said: Lawrence is the consensus top QB prospect and will most likely go #1 overall.
I seriously doubt anyone "dethrones" Lawrence as the #1 pick, unless Meyer actually decides to take "his" OSU QB Fields over him, which I think is doubtful. Even if he wanted to, the Jags owner would likely assert his privilege and make him take Lawrence. That said, I'm not a QB expert, but I don't think Lawrence is really better than Wilson, or Fields, and while right now he's better than Lance, in the long run, maybe not.
I think Jax is locked in on Lawrence but as I said before, the top 3 QBs in this draft are closer than the talking heads have it for me. When you take into account Ball Placement Anticipation Short/Medium accuracy Off platform throws Wilson is ahead of Lawrence. Lawrence is taller and has a bigger arm. When you also throw in personality (Wilson reminds me a bit of Jim McMahon) and system fit, Wilson might be a better QB for the Jets than Lawrence.
I disagree. Lawrence is better than Wilson in almost every way possible. The only thing Wilson might be better at is his throwing motion. The way the ball comes out of his hands is special. But that’s it. Lawrence is as clean of a prospect on and off the field as they come. He’s also waaaaaay more pro ready. If we take Wilson let’s hope we can be patient the way teams were with Favre, Mahomes and ARod with a special arm talent they need at least 1 year to grow. We need to sign CJ Beathard to run the offence next year and sit either Wilson/Fields or we will get another failed Darnold.
The Jaguars should be banished from the NFL if they take Wilson over Lawrence. There is no scenario in which Jacksonville does not have Lawrence.
This is a very good observation, and it does have some similarities to 2018 where Sam was projected to be #1 throughout the entire draft process, until it was leaked that Browns will pick Baker. Then Giants took pass on Sam at #2, and he ended up #3 overall. However, the difference is that Sam was a flawed prospect, where he was actually the bottom 5 in TOs and outside of top 20 in clean pocket accuracy, and was actually coming off pretty pedestrian year. Baker's production was actually far and away superior to Sam in every imaginable way possible, but he was measured only 6'0.5" tall. Yes, there are rare example of short QBs, but there is a reason why vast majority are at least 6'2"-3". At the end of the day Browns took a gamble on Baker's height due to superior production over Sam's TO and accuracy flaws but prototypical QB size, which is a quite reasonable move: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-baker-mayfields-tape-numbers-say-he-should-be-no-1-overall-pick In our case, Lawrence has no such flaws as Sam did, and has all the talent and then some. There is just no objective reason for him to slide. Wilson is the one who might end up sliding from #2 if he measures poorly. If he comes in small, coupled with labrum injury before, he might fall. I feel a bit better about him coming in with good size after seeing Mac Jones measure well as they kind of look to have similar stature, but we will find out on March 26. Even if he comes in at 6'3" 220lb, which is the best case scenario, there is still prior injury, there is still only one year of high level play, smaller non power 5 school, etc... Lawrence just clearly checks few more important boxes, and there is just no logical reason to fall from #1, like Sam did in 2018 draft.
You might be 100% right, but I seem to recall that in 2018 a bunch of experts had Sam as the most complete package, Rosen as the best pure pocket passer, and Allen as a distant fourth due inaccuracies, smaller school, competition etc, etc. I think is fair to say Josh is quickly asserting himself as the best of the bunch and most improved as a total QB. So all the expert analysis is far from perfect and so dependent on quality of the team he goes to and quality of the coaching staff. I yet to see an evaluation that defines the most celebral of the bunch from a pure Xs and Os perspective.
