Advanced metrics had Baker as clearly the better option that draft, which has turned out to be true. Those same metrics have Fields and especially Wilson as significantly better prospects than Sam was.
Is that the same advanced metrics you shared in the last thread that didn't have Trevor Lawrence in the top 5 of the combined classes?
Might have been that Borax guy, I get you two mixed up for some reason. I'll see if I can dig it up from the Watson Municipal Landfill.
Trevor got his due from PFF. No reason to ignorantly dismiss advanced statistics, it's just a part of evaluation and gives you more insight. It doesn't necessarily mean player A is better or worse of a prospect than player B, but it does clean up and clarify a lot of statistics that you cannot see from traditional sources. Then you use it in conjunction with other info to come to a more informed conclusion. https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-pff-top-100-big-board
No chance. I simply don't understand why people dismiss huge flaws in his game coming out of College. If today one of the Fields or Wilson was ranked bottom 5 in TO worthy plays AND was outside of top 20 in accuracy from clean pocket, he would CLEARLY drop well below the other. Sam had these flaws. He went QB2 because there was no one like Fields or Wilson who made big time throws like Sam, had size and even bigger arm, more mobile, AND on top of that are extremely accurate and take care of the ball. Sam goes 4th-6th QB in this draft. And this is not a knock on him, but simple logic that guys with big time talent as him and good size, but without major flaws of poor accuracy and TOs are better prospects.
Its just as ridiculous to say nobody will want Sam as it is to think he is worth multiple picks including a 1st rounder. A sober look at Darnold will show you exactly what he is - a guy who was drafted with a high pick 3 years ago who so far has disappointed and not lived up to his potential. I think the clown show of the last few years along with the year derailed by mono only works in his favor, because it makes him more of an unknown. If he had played the last 3 years solid and been consistently sub-par it would be easier for other teams to classify him as a bust. There is almost always a coach out there who thinks they can fix a young guy like Darnold, but that's what he is - a project. How much are other teams willing to gamble on a project like Darnold? I think its reasonable (and not necessarily bad value) to hope for a 2nd round pick. Obviously I hope we can fleece a team and get a 1st round pick for him, but with Al Davis in the ground its not as likely as it once might have been. Why would a good team with good management trade a 1st round pick for Darnold when they could draft a young qb with that pick instead and have him locked up for 5 years? It would be a bad football move even though as a Jet fan I'm hopeful it happens.
Not to mention teams common knowledge says that teams will hold their draft picks tighter to the vest this year. With a lower cap and a ton of teams in cap trouble, the only way they're going to be able to improve their teams is through the draft. Of course, the draft is also harder to evaluate this year with no combine and players playing less games, no normal practice schedules and opt outs. But still. People dreaming about cap strapped teams like the Saints or Steelers moving their only top asset for a project at QB are dreaming with their pipe in hand.
5?? Come on. I feel like you’re saying this with a lot of hindsight involved. I think people forget how highly touted he was because of the rubble we reduced him to.
If you'll recall, I never thought Sam was all that. I always thought that Mayfied was the best prospect. I thought Rosen was the worst, and Allen and Darnold were in the middle. Allen had his inaccuracy and playing at a lower level working against him, and Sam had his fumbles, interceptions, and only playing well his freshman year. I let the board sway me once we drafted Sam, and I hoped for the best, but he has proved to be what I thought he would be back then...not very good. I think Fields, Wilson and Lance are very good prospects. They each have their questions, but imo none of their questions are bigger than Sam's were. Sam was hyped bigger by the media. Lawrence and Covid have taken all that hype this year. Lance is hurt by only playing one game this year. All three are more accurate than Sam and don't have the problems with TOs. All three are just as mobile or more mobile than Sam. All three can fit the ball into small windows. All three are accurate throwing on the run. All three are better runners than Sam. All three are more accurate on deep throws than Sam. I think that all three are better leaders than Sam. Fields and Lance have just as good a size. Wilson and Lance definitely see the whole field better than Sam, and I think that Fields does as well. I'm not as sure about Lance's football IQ, but it seems to be pretty good. Wilson's football IQ is definitely better than Sam's and I think Field's is as well. Sam was definitely better 3 years ago than he is now, but at best, I think he would be #3 or maybe even only #4. Don't forget that he only played two years and his second season wasn't very good. He regressed. IMO the only reason he could be rated higher than Wilson would be because Wilson's size isn't as good as Sam's and he has had the rotator cuff surgeries on both shoulders, and I think that he is better than Sam in every other way, and that's probably enough to elevate him over Sam. He may be rated higher than Lance due to Lance's only starting one year and playing at a lower level, but again, Lance is a superior and more polished QB than Sam was.
Sam was a media darling due to his performance in the Rose Bowl. For some reason everyone overlooked the fact that he regressed significantly the following year. If I recall, it was mainly the dumb talking heads like Kiper who were proclaiming Sam as a great prospect. He was definitely considered good, but diving into stats, film and advanced metrics it was pretty clear that Baker was a better prospect. Dorsey is a great evaluator of talent and realized this. Neither guy was considered a slam dunk. There was debate about who would go first all the way up until the draft and if I recall, it was a bit surprising when Baker went first. Not because Sam was a phenomenal prospect, but because the media had been hyping him as such ever since the Rose Bowl. My main point is that we need to separate media narrative from reality. Sam was highly touted, yes, but was not considered a phenomenal prospect if you really dove into all of the data and film. In hindsight it's actually easy to see the issues he had in college and how they persisted and got worse in the NFL. Neither Wilson nor Fields turn the ball over often at all and both were significantly more accurate than Sam in college and averaged a significantly higher Y/A. They also threw for more TD's than Sam did in each of their best college seasons. There really isn't much you can point to that Sam did better than them. Long story short, it's totally reasonable to say Sam would've been QB 4 or worse in this draft. I do think he would go ahead of Lance (although maybe not if Lance played this season).
I think the prediction of 5 is spot on. I said 4-6, and the guys in play are Lance, Mac Jones, and Darnold, so chances are Sam ends up in the middle. Mac has been a bit underrated. He threw a decent number of deep balls, where I don't think arm strength will be an issue. He didn't have same rating as Wilson throwing and his range is more limited, but he has enough pop. I could definitely see Mac going ahead of Sam, similarly to Baker. It's close now between Lance and Mac, and Sam I feel would be in that conversation. Of course that was 3 years ago. With 3 CAP friendly rookie years in the bag, and Sam regressed, this value is way down now. And he could not touch Wilson and Fields even as a prospect, being one of the worst in TOs and not even top 20 in accuracy from pocket. These things would really stand out in a bad way when you compare to others. Let's see how Wilson measures, but he looks similar to Mac Jones in size, who just got measured 6'2.5" and 217, which is very solid size, and not that much different from Sam.
The only point I've ever tried to make is that Schefter's opinion should carry more weight than most people, including the vast majority of people on this board, and that we shouldn't dismiss what he says as wild speculation. Surely you can at least agree on that somewhat, right? Again, I'll never defend what McShay said in regard to Watson v Darnold but it's a false equivalency to equate what he said with what Schefter said and then to compound that by extrapolating it to say that all league insiders are no better than the common person when it comes to what the general league perception is ludicrous. Will Darnold ultimately get traded for a late-1st round value? Who knows? Maybe, maybe not, but lets not act like we know more than NFL insiders because a draft analyst had a bad take.
I agree that some opinions may be based on what they hear, and can have some value more than average poster, sure. However, in this case he said he didn't base it on anything else but purely his own view of Sam, in light of Stafford trade. This is absolutely very similar to McShay, who I feel also has a flawed opinion of either Sam or Watson or both, not based on any insider info. Now, let's not twist my words here about general League perception or tell me how ludicrous this is. I specifically identified the scenario where they have no insider info on a subject and just state their opinion. In this scenario, no I don't think he has a better take than many posters here, who are not just common people by the way, but a more educated about football subset of these. Again, he clearly said this was his own take in light of Stafford, and he has not heard anything. Now, let's see how ludicrous our takes are if Sam is indeed traded and take a look at what the value was. If he is treaded for 1st rounder, I will admit I was way off on this one. But looks like you are already hedging your bets here by saying "who knows, and maybe or maybe not". Of course no one knows, but it appears majority on this board are doubtful we can get a late 1st rounder. Schefter is confident that he is. Let's see when it's all said and done who had a better take.
Schefter speculated that Darnold had first round value. I think everyone can kind of agree that the Jets are not getting a first rounder for him. Judging by the always concrete "draft value chart," it looks like a mid second and mid third is equal to the value of a first. Could that be an option? An additional second and third would be huge.
If you are the owner/GM of a brand new NFL expansion team and you have your pick of the following QBs, who do you sign a 5 yr contract with? Jameis Winston Johnny Manziel Cam Newton Michael Tribisky Carson Wenze Teddy Bridgewater Marcus Mariota Robert Griffen 3rd Josh Rosen Paxton Lynch Jerrod Goff Daniel Jones Dewayne Haskins Lamar Jackson Sam Darnold
Shouldn't include Lamar. Makes it an easy decision! After that though, I think I would take: 2. Sam 3. Wentz 4. Goff 5. Winston
