I just outlined the differences. Are you not reading the full post? Grade Sam's performance and situation on a curve and you can come up with logical conclusions. Better situations but better performances. The fact that you think there's never been a situation comparable proves that you're intent on stonewalling the conversation with that very statement and not consider anything else.
The book of throws in that clip need to be completed at a higher rate than they were. A lot of those are standard play action route concepts, and honestly a decent amount of them are thrown to the wrong receiver or thrown way too late. Play action concepts simplify things for the quarterback. Sam doesn't digest the field very quickly which is why a lot of those plays are covered up by the time he throws the ball.
Is it short sighted to dismiss McShay's statement that Watson may be just a slight upgrade of Watson? Did you hear full clip of Schefter? He said he was basing this on his view of Stafford trade, not any GM information. He said he thought Sam would go for second but after seeing Stafford trade now thinks it's first. I think that it can be dismissed as just another take, when basically all offers for Stafford were 1st rounder + change, and Stafford is top 3d QB in the League, operating at different level than Sam. What is so short sighted about dismissing his opinion to be any more than anyone else with a different take? What is more short sighted is to look at just pure opinion of these guys (not fact reported) as something that actually counts a great deal. It really doesn't. And McShay's take on Watson vs Sam is just a great illustration of that.
I agree that big part of Sam's bad habits was due to Jets. However, you also cannot ignore the fact Sam had major flaws coming out in 2018. Yes, he was rated very highly by the same guys who are now saying Watson is only a slight upgrade over him and others, but that draft class was much weaker at QB. The guys with physical tools were very inaccurate and TO prone. The guy with actual production (Baker) didn't have athleticism, and was just 6 feet, and in his 5th year in College. Not only there was no Trevor in that draft, there was also no Wilson or Fields, i.e. athletics guys with some size and big arm and good production and accuracy. Sam checked more boxes than most, but things we see today, such as TOs and inaccurate passing were there since College days. Sam was bottom 5 in TO worthy plays, which is a HUGE red flag. He was #21 ranked from clean pocket. Top prospects today are among the top in these categories in addition to the good things Sam brought. So, yes part of it is Jets, and also part of it that Sam always had flaws/question marks and never fixed them. It's really is both and we are where we are at this point, where we need to admit Sam has lost a lot of of the value he had 3 years ago, and was probably rated too highly to begin with.
Anyone catch that Mims interview with Bart and Hahn? Yea Sam is a total after thought lol. So gone. Mims was hyping Watson lol
not disagreeing with you ALso think the eyeball test you provide and analysis is actually much much more helpful than the stat when we assess him as a QB
Thanks again for your post. All these posts containing statistics, or "low lights" video compilations of Darnold's worst throws,just reinforce what Mark Twain said: "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damnable lies, and statistics". Why is this true? Because people often cherry pick the stats that support their conclusion, and/or they use the stats/videos without any context. I haven't studied all PA pass plays, but from my own observations it seems like most successful PA plays are made with short, quick passes, not the 20+ yard passes that the clips of Darnold above show. IDK if the plays were designed to be long passes, or if Darnold made those decisions when the plays unfolded, but in any case, longer throws are going to have lower completion %. CONTEXT.
This is especially true with Darnold as his deep ball is truly atrocious. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
I'm Where do you draw this conclusion from? Play action passes (and a lot of pass plays really) have multiple tiers. The sweet spot for PA is on the crossing routes that extend into the 11-20 yard range depending on the depth the receiver runs it. They also usually come with a quick short outlet that creates a lot of space if you can sell the flat defender on the run fake. He has a bad run fake (man remember Pennington's? best in the game), so that hurts in negating the short play. The play designs in terms of creating that space in the flats are not good, and the fact that teams cheated up into the 1-10 yard range because there was no threat of "chunk" play pickups really hurts it. We (and Sam) should've been popping the ball over safeties heads up the seam all season long. Safety depth is indicative of how much they respect your ability to throw the ball down the field. Safeties were inside the first down marker all season long against us. They play 7-8 yards back versus great downfield throwers like Wilson and Mahomes. Even still, on a lot of throws, Darnold doesn't get the ball out when the receivers open. The longer you take, the more real estate the receiver is going to run out of if he's working towards the side line. That's why in a lot of plays in the aforementioned clip, the defensive back has plenty of time to recover, especially considering they basically have the receiver pinned against the sideline and have less field to work with once the ball is ultimately thrown.
Like I said a little while ago about this tweet... "play design" is damning as hell. And when you couple that with "gameplan" and the total lack of teaching, you end up wasting your best shot at a franchise QB since Namath.
We're not going to persuade each other to agree, so I just erased the long winded, point by point rebuttal to your post, and we can ATD.
I don't know what there is to agree or disagree about. I'm not sure where you get this idea that play action passes are designed to be short throws. They're not, but there are always short outlets baked in that can be quick hitters if they're available.
I never said they were designed to be short throws. I said that in my observations they were often short passes, and what I saw in that video clip of "proof" of Darnold's terrible PA performance were long - 20+ yard - passes.
