And guess what? You are not wrong. It is a viable path, especially if Saleh is on board with it. Build around Sam and see how he does with better talent and coaching. Douglas may end up with that decision, and if he does, I hope the fans support it. I want Sam to get a fresh start and a fair shake. If that can happen in New York, I am cool with it. You are right about the other QB's being crapshoots. That is why I said if Douglas falls in love with one, fine, but if not, maybe you trade down. Sam is NFL tested, but has 3 years of disappointment attached to it. Wilson or Fields would be getting a fresh start with a new Head Coach. We will see. I think Sam can get a 1st Rounder still. A 2nd for sure. Maybe I am overvaluing him, but I don't think so.
There is plenty of tape on Sam either not seeing wide open receivers or throwing the ball to an open guy and missing him completely. You have to put some blame on Darnold. Does eating a sack when he has the opportunity to throw the ball away count as lack of talent around him? Or throwing into triple coverage? Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
ESPN talking head just said if the top QBs are gone by the time NE picks (15th), they will offer that pick to the Jets for Sam Darnold. He said NE may have to toss in a 3rd to get it done. LOL someone's way off!
As a guy who has defended Darnold here, I'd be shocked if he brought a #15 back in return. But if BB felt that strongly about him, I'd be very worried.
JD says the goal of FA is to give him maximum flexibility going into the draft. And Sam Darnold gives him just that. JD is not boxed into a corner where he HAS to get a certain QB in this draft at #2, even if none of them are really worth the #2 overall. I believe JD will trade down some, picking up valuable draft cap. He may even trade down twice, but at least once. JD will have 5 guys on his board all perfect for our first selection. Maybe one or two QBs, LT Sowell, WR Chase, WR DeVante Smith, DB Surtain III, etc, and he'd be thrilled with any one of them. So after trading down 4-6 spots, he figures at least one of those 5 will still be available. If it turns out 3 are still available, he may trade down again. But no mater who he takes he'll have Sam, a fan favorite, available to start the season. That's huge, and takes a ton of pressure off him. Lets him trade down for valuable picks, and still get an impact player. Part of his trade down may be a 2022 first round, which will give him 3 next year he can use on a top QB, if a QB doesn't work out this year. Maybe even Watson, if Watson's forced to play for the Texans this season.
LOL yup, i was surprised to hear it. Sounded great! But totally not happening. But just the fact top guys are ESPN are talking up Sam is a good thing (for us!).
I'll eat my Darnold jersey if he goes for a first round pick in this year's draft. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
NE has to offer more than that, after all, Sam is only "slightly worse" than Watson. Seriously though, I do hope there will be all top QBs gone by #15, so NE does not get someone like Mac Jones, but don't count on that 15th overall for Sam just yet.
Sam was not a safe pick, there was plenty of risk there with all the TOs and poor accuracy from clean pocket, but I agree Allen was perceived as a bigger risk due to accuracy. Interestingly though, when you look at passing from clean pocket, while they were both pretty inaccurate, the gap between them was not wide at all. However, I don't think your example is applicable here. If Darnold realized his potential, I don't think he would be much worse than Allen if any at all. The problem for us was that Allen improved and Sam didn't, not that Allen had so much more talent. In this draft I see Zach Wilson having as much potential as anyone. If he realizes it, he can be Mahomes like player. Lance could be Lamar Jackson - like, Fields could be Watson/Russell Wilson. These three guys have a lot of potential. However, a GM would be absolutely foolish to ignore how close/likely they are to realize their potential and only look at talent. You have to consider both. Out of the three guys above, I don't see a massive difference in ceiling of these players, but I do see Lance having a much higher risk of realizing this potential as he is more of unknown.
Good post, and interesting discussion. My number one concern with Lance is also the limited experience, and thus game tape, in which to fully evaluate him as a prospect. It's a fair point. The interviews and Pro-day will be a huge part of the evaluation for Lance, as it will be for most prospects this year. I disagree with your assessment that Wilson and Fields are somehow much safer picks than Lance tho. Wilson and Fields are not without risk either imo. If Wilson was denied the opportunity to play the 2020 season, as Lance was, I don't think he's a round 1 consideration at all, much less #2 overall. He threw 11 TD's to 9 INT's in 2019, has a slight build, and there are the Rosen like whispers. In his defense, his teammates and coaches came out with much more support of him than the crickets that came out of UCLA, so that could just be noise. But just like Lance, I would put a lot of weight into the upcoming coaches evaluations during Pro-Day and interviews of Wilson. I also agree Lance played with a superior supporting cast, but so did Lawrence, Mac, and Fields as well. In terms of the Lance positives, I wouldn't dismiss him as just a powerful runner. He has tremendous poise in the pocket, the ability to extend the play without running, and makes great decisions with the football. A common scouting report is that he does not get rattled, leading to a 2019 with 28 TD's and ZERO interceptions thrown. His accuracy also somehow increases on deep balls and in the Red Zone, showing those intangibles to take chances and deliver where it matters most. His game reminds me a lot of Russell Wilson, with a little Josh Allen sprinkled in, IF he can hit that ceiling. Highest ceiling outside of any QB besides Lawrence imo. A lot will come down to coaches and JD's evaluation up close on these QB's, something we will not be privy to as armchair evaluators. We gotta put some faith these guys will get it right, even if they pass on a Round 1 QB.
I think you can make that observation about any QB. In Sam's case he often doesn't get the time to check off on secondary receivers. Sam taking sacks can be attributed to a less than mediocre OL and his inexperienced desire to make a play. Not saying it's the right thing but understandable. New coach said he admires Sam's ability to stand in the pocket until the last second, so that's a plus for Sam. Also remember, Sam has won when he has had a full roster to support him. Last season he came back from illness and led the Jets to an upset of the Cowboys. For me, any defeat of the Cowboys is a grand moment in Jets history. Then he won 6 out of last 8 games, proving he can win when given the proper supporting cast. Bringing in a veteran QB such as Watson, (Stafford no longer under consideration) who I loved four years ago, means paying a high price in draft picks which could better be used to support Sam. Drafting a QB means starting all over again with a rookie. Looking at the past 5 years and all the top QB's drafted, the only ones that have been an unqualified success so far are Allen, Mahomes, Watson and Jackson and the last three took over winning teams. Mayfield took a few years to win. QB's Wentz, Goff, Trubisky, Winston, Mariota have fallen by the wayside. Rosen and Lynch never got going. Murray and Jones have not impressed so far. Drafting a QB (not named Lawrence) is a risk not worth taking when we have, what I think, is untapped talent at the QB position.
Mahomes and Watson are elite. Allen was elite this season but he has to prove he can do it consistently. Jackson was elite last season but just good this season. Murray, Mayfield, and Prescott are good. Goff and Wentz were good but both have regressed. The rest, including Sam, aren't good, and it's time to move on from Sam.
WTF? We can't afford to trade up. That would be the worst thing JD could do, especially giving up Mims. We need more WRs, not less. Taking Devonta Smith at #2 would be equally awful imo, and unless one likes all of the QBs, one doesn't just accept any old QB that falls to them. It's not a good draft for DEs (we're now going to be playing a 4-3 base most of the time, so no need for a 3-4 OLB Edge). While it's a huge need and Saleh DE will want one, it's not a must. DE should wait until next year. The top draft picks (all picks from the 1st three rounds) should be used on offense to build around the QB, who should be one of Watson, Fields, Wilson or Lance.
