Maybe in that points system but in the real world 2 first rounders is a huge bounty. Especially if the other team flops one year like Houston did with Miami’s pick and Washington did in the RG3 trade and the Rams got 2nd overall. My way of thinking is those future 1st rounders could be game changing opportunities where a 2nd rounder is a 2nd rounder no matter what. A first has the potential to be a star or at least a starter day 1.
the fact that one is this year (23) and one is next is way better than 2 picks in one and two years from now imo.
If it was up to me I would value future picks higher that but that is how NFL teams value picks they downgrade them one round. In the real world that is how it is done. Back in 2006 there was a dispute on this board about a Mangini trade for a future draft pick (I think with Washington) and if teams actually followed the rule of devaluing future picks by one round. This board analyzed every trade from 2000 to 2006 involving future picks and every trade except one had almost a perfect equal trade value when devaluing the pick. I don't think anything has changed since. I agree in the long run it is better to accumulate more by trading back for future picks but in the real world the NFL is a win now or lose your job business and that is why present picks have greater value than future picks. Fans will be here longer and have the ability to be more patient and think more about the long term than GMs and coaches.
That would be a boon for the Lions and might be a reason why the Lions allegedly took less to trade with the Rams. But when you make the trade you look at the expected value and of course factor in the risk of the pick being better or worse. But the trade value is not determined by the actual record but by the expected area of the pick. Teams might move that around based on the ability of a team to tank but at some point they have to settle on an expected number. The Rams if they had their pick this year would have drafted 25th. The Rams are certainly in win mode. Stafford should upgrade the team and the trade helped their salary cap position by 20 million this year. But the Rams are also an aging team that has not had a 1st round pick since 2016 when they drafted Goff. At some point the wheels might come off. Will it be in the next two years? I used 25th for my calculations. I could see the argument that might be too high given the risk of everything imploding. But certainly the number should be in the 22 to 25 range.
That's possible, but baked into the value consideration at the time of the trade. The odds of the Texans pick becoming what it did were exceedingly low. That it worked out in such a long shot way does not change the way you should evaluate trades, or anything.
Agreed, they're still 1st round picks. Whitworth 40, Stafford turns 33 soon, Woods is approaching 30, Donald will be 30.. there's key players that Father time will catch up to eventually. And they're going to lose pieces like Everett and Floyd. It's weird to me that Goff's contract is talked about more than Goff the player. He's not a world beater, but he's more than a throw-in. WFT would be smart to target him if Holmes would be willing to trade him. Better than Allen, one and a half legged Smith or Heinicke. To declare Goff the guy with that contract and then not the guy a short two seasons later reeks of desperation. And he didn't even play poorly in their playoff loss. If McVay had been the coach of the Lions back in 2013, then Stafford would have been traded long ago. This feels like a lateral move for the Rams.
It is a lateral move. Stafford can not lose them games and keep them in games their defense wins for them. They also shed a horrible contract and they can take a flier on a third round QB to groom under mcveigh.
That was because the Lions took Goff and his HUGE cap hit. If the Lions hadn't taken Goff, the Rams wouldn't have had to give up nearly as much. In fact, the Rams couldn't have even made the trade if Detroit wasn 't willing to take Goff.
I think guys are underestimating Stafford. Guy threw for 4k under Matt Patrica. Put him with Mcvay I think he's gonna light up next year and he's only 32 ppl are acting like he's 37
I have to say that is really a weird way of looking at it, at the end of the day they are first rounders regardless of how long you have to wait for them, granted they could end up at the wrong end of the first round but a pick in the 20+ is still a damn sight better than the third round.
Their odds to reach SB next year have drastically increased - by about 40%. I doubt the pick will be top 5 or anywhere near it. Stafford is a big upgrade over Goff in the most important position on the field. Heck Goff wasn't even starting in play-offs in favor of Wolford, and it clearly wasn't due to injury, since he was able to play just fine when Wolford got hurt. That's why you see their odds increase so much. Plus they got rid of Goff's bloated contract AND CAP savings would allow them to sign first round level free agent, who is already proven. All for two late first round picks and a 3d. I say these picks served Rams VERY well, it's an excellent deal for them. Who knows, maybe with Stafford Rams end up winning division next year and can bounce Seattle, resulting in a better pick for the Jets.
This is industry standard practice across all major sports when it comes to trading draft picks. The present day value of picks is greatly diminished by the timeline needed for the asset to ripen. This also means that picks that are coming in less than 3 months AND have their position already locked in are significantly more valuable. It's like being able to pay someone cash upfront instead of having to work out a payment plan.
Speaking of Seattle. Their o-line went to crap mid season and their offense followed suit. They didn't look good in the postseason and have no #1 pick. They are a Russell Wilson hamstring pull from delivering the Jets a top 10 pick next year. You never know where a team will end up.
The Packers just rolled over the #1 Rams defense that is supposed to help Stafford win in the playoffs. Five straight scoring drives to open the game and almost 500 yards given up. And it was Goff, and Goff only, that sabotaged their SB chances? Rams FO and coaching staff was just picked clean, too. Maybe it's time for McVay to use his super-geniusness abilities, eh?
