Winston-Free Agent Mariota-Backup Goff-Rams done with him Wentz-Eagles done with him Trubisky-Free Agent Mayfield-Not very good Darnold-Jets done with him What is going on?
top 3 picked QBs typically go to bad teams where it's hard to succeed. The crazy thing about this list though is it isn't true. the bears, rams, and browns are all good teams held back by the QB. darnold and mariota were just on bad teams and weren't good enough to compensate and in trying to compensate looked really bad.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/seasontype/2 https://sportsnaut.com/nfl-quarterback-rankings/ Does being 10th out of 32 count as not being very good? I can agree that Mayfield's not elite, but not very good is a stretch.
Please don’t use garbage like ESPN QBR. They had Trubisky ranked #2 one year. Mayfield is Goff 2.0. He’s a replacement level QB.
Not quite ready to call the 2018 class yet mainly because the one's not already on the precipe of bust still have a few questions surrounding them. Is this year Allen's peak or plateau? Can Jackson develop his pocket game? Can Mayfield carry the team when the run game is stuffed? Can all of them compensate for when they are taking up a huge swathe of the cap and their rosters aren't so stacked? I guess there's also a teeny chance that Darnnold could light it up next year and get himself into the Bridgewater bracket of youngish guy who can act as a bridge or potential starter on a stacked team waiting for their FQB.
Mayfield is the big mystery to me as the question is always "can he drive his team to a win when the run is stuffed or he has to chase a game?" which is obv. not where the Browns by design want themselves to be. Against lower ranked scrub teams/D's I think he has shown that he can but against the top, playoff level defences............not yet convinced.
He’s an average QB. On a rookie deal you can live with him, but he’s a guy you will have regrets about paying.
Mayfield still has a lot of room to grow. Wasn't a big fan of him coming out but he's been better than I expected. He played much better when he got out of the shadow of needing to try to force Odell Beckham the ball so he's happy.
You've seen exactly what Mayfield would be on a Jets-level roster, with a run game that was shut down. It wasn't pretty at all. And that was a single game. Imagine that for three years. Him being replacement level might be a stretch but if the Browns had taken Darnold #1 and the Jets Mayfield at #3, I don't think Jets results would have been better.
Analysis of draft picks always focus on the player drafted rather than what the draft picks afford. QBs drafted 1-5 are always going to bad, QB-needy teams and they are usually thrown in at the deep end in Week 1. QBs drafted 24-32 generally go to teams that don't need them/drafting for the future (e.g. Jordan Love). It's not surprising that the highest levels of success come mid-round. As you go down the draft, playing time generally gets reduced (James Morgan IS A BUST!!!!11) so more difficult to evaluate. Tom Brady is a one-in-a-million shot not because he was a diamond in the rough but because sixth round picks don't get playing time ("my QB is injured, what's Brian Hoyers/Tyrod Taylors/Case Keenums number?"). There may have been a dozen other Tom Brady's bombed out of the league in the past 20 years. One day, I'll find article that recognizes both moving parts rather than PICK #17 IS THE BEST FOR QBS!!! lol
Almost all of those picks were forced picks by the teams that made them. "You're at the top of the draft. You gotta get a QB!" Double-vision sets in. Baker Mayfield is real.
Mayfield was my pick in the draft as I thought if he had a couple more inches on him he'd be consensus #1 plus if he was busted on the Jets at least he'd go down with fight and passion. Sadly he (and Barkley) were never in our grasp and I was happy with Darnold as the recomended safe pick who'd be hard to mess up and Rosen as the most pro-ready. Baker has had flashes of games (not a few series like Sam) where he has been all that, mostly against bad teams like the Bengals but also the Ravens shoot-out and a pretty good Titans team. He's not had a breakout year like Allen or Jackson but he's trending upwards and might be further ahead if not for the Kitchens year. That year is why I share some sympathy for the Darnold fans who scream about Gase and the system being the problem. Perhaps a deep dive to see which of these first round QB's landed in a situation with an established system/scheme and didn't have a bad HC or constantly changing set of OC's might show a correlation?
Some people think a star QB will transform a team the way Lebron can in basketball. While some talents -- Mahomes, Peyton, Brady -- may be able to do that; it's usually not that easy the reality however is things are more synergistic and a result of the team, organization and the QB's continued growth. Keep in mind many of these guys made the pro bowl My own guess is this is as much a factor of an improved NFL with analytics etc and game-planning against any QB/team. there are other factors too, e.g., if the team's draft assets or cap were depleted and inability to have the surrounding team
mayfield reminds me so much of sanchez. he's holding back that team. they would never do it but if cleveland traded for stafford they could make a SB run. they won't win in the playoffs with baker at QB ever.
Even Lebron needs to surround himself with other All Stars in order to win championships. I think we'll see better play from Darnold if he gets a chance in the Shanahan system with NFL caliber targets and a respectable running game.
Sanchez was nothing but below average for us. Mayfield had a bad 2019, but was above average in 2018 and 2020.
What exactly does that prove though? They were down 20-3 in the second half and had a chance to win on the back of Baker Mayfield's arm with no running game and not even the threat of balance as they gave up on the running game. He willed them back into the game and had a chance to tie it at the end. Baker's been pretty good. I don't get all of the hate for him. I'd kill for a quarterback with a three to one touchdown to interception ratio.
This is an interesting question, one to which there is no single answer. I agree that a big part of the failure/struggle rate is that QBs taken in the first 12 picks usually land on weak teams, and not only does that refer to the talent level, but also the coaching. Exhibit A: Sam Darnold. But the Rams and Eagles were not terrible teams, they had some decent talent and good coaching, and I'd say the same about Mariota's Titans. In these cases it looks like a case of over-drafting. It could also be that they had too much put on their shoulders too soon, even though they had some success at first, maybe that was due more to the league not knowing them very well, and then the league figured them out and they didn't learn how to change their game. But I believe that QBs are not well scouted and evaluated, especially in key traits that are harder to quantify. Things like football IQ: how well do they understand the game such that they can think 2 or 3 moves ahead of everyone else? The great QBs have this innate sense. And also, how strong is their will to win? Do they have a "refuse to lose" mentality that only gets stronger as the stakes and the odds get higher? I also think accuracy - under all conditions - is under-valued. I think teams believe they can improve a QBs accuracy, and to some degree they might be able to, but again, the great QBs seem to be born with a high degree of hand-eye coordination and spatial awareness that can't be taught. The most recent example of a QB who had all these traits is Mahomes, and I would include Watson in that, but he doesn't have the arm Patrick does. I think teams focus more on physical measurements, stats accrued, and faulty "intelligence" tests. Anyway, that's my 2 cents for now.
