With all the talks of houston wanting 20 1st rounders for watson (obviously exgerrating) I thought i'd see what the value is of recent trades compared to the 2nd overall pick. Remember in the NFL there are diminishing returns. once a player is drafted they lose value. it's like buying a new car off the lot. the second you drive it off the lot it lost a ton of value. especially after a year or 2. also any future pick is devalued by a round. so a 1st in 2022 = a 2nd in 2021. Lets start by looking at recent trades Jamaal adams Drafted 6th overall. was all pro. seattle gave a 1st next year and a 1st 2 years from now. with Seattle estimated to pick between 21 and 32 in the draft the expected position was about 26. this is the expect position for any playoff team that could compete for a superbowl. that puts the 2021 1st rounder at 320 and the 2023 1st rounder at 140 for a total value of 460 Khalil mack drafted 5th overall. was all pro and considered the bets defensive player in the NFL at the time Bears gave up a 1st next year and 1st the year after. they were an average team so expected draft position is 16. A 3rd 2 years from now. and a 6th 1 year from now. a total of 689.8 value. they received back a 2nd rounder 2 years from them so 68 points and a condition which was a 5th to 7th so we'll mark as 6th plus with the modifery for future about 7.8 points for a total of 75.8 That means the bears gave up 614 value for mack Larry Tunsil Drafted 13th overall. was considered a franchise LT when traded Texans gave up a next year 1st rounder, a 1st rounder 2 years away, and a 1st rounder 3 years away and 2 meh players. they were expected to be a playoff team every year. that picks the value at pick 26. the total of those 3 1st rounders are 512. add in 16 points for the 2 players that's 528. in return the got a meh player a future 4th and a 2 years away 6th. the total of those 2 picks and a player are 55.7 That means they gave up 472.3 value for tunsil Jalen Ramsey drafted 5th overall. was considered a top 3 CB and was an all pro rams gave up 2 1sts (1 future and 1 2 years away)and a 4th 2 years away. total value 489 for ramsey Outcome So what can we learn from this? in short the value for getting a player top of their position coming off a rookie contract is around 460 to 614. All players are premium positions except for adams which netted the least return. Where does that put watson at? well i'd say he's higher then anyone here because he is a QB which is even more premium of a position. watson however isn't as elite as mack was but similar to adams and ramsey and better then tunsil at their positions. modifying for his position even if you double it over mack would mean about 1228 value or 11th to 12th overall pick. The 2nd overall is valued at 2600. it's actually a similar value to miami's 3rd overall pick plus their 1st rounder in 2022. The 2nd overall pick is more value then what adams, ramsey, tunsil, and mack were traded for combined. This can't be understated. If we were to trade back with detriot who figures to have the 7th overall and 21st overall it would cost them both of those picks plus either their 1st next year or 2nd this year. maybe more depending on bidding. for example the jets gave up 2860 in value for 3rd overall (2200) to draft darnold. we overpaid by an extra 2nd rounder. meaning a package from detriot could net 7th overall, 21st overall, 2nd round pick, and 1st rounder in 2022. This is something that needs to be looked at with a watson trade if they come asking for too much. Fair Compensation So what is fair compensation for watson? well this is hard to say exactly. 1st off never has a top 5 QB at 25 years old been traded. QB is the most premium position in the game valuewise. Also value or not they would never do a 1 for 1 trade. even though the 2nd overall is worth that much. not unless it involved a 3rd team giving them a haul for the picks. which isn't something that happens often in the NFL (3 team trade). watson however is disgruntled. the texans don't have much cap room. they have a new GM and will have a new coach. do they want to be in a position to start their tenure with an unhappy QB eating a ton of cap or do they want to pick their guy and start over? only 2 teams really have the ammo and cap room to trade for watson and that's the jets and miami. that puts them in a tough spot. watson could also veto a trade but that is unlikely. if he wants out he'll have to go where they can make a deal. either way he seems fine with the jets and dolphins. Jets pick value this year (1st 3 rounds) 4340 next year 1235 Dolphins pick value this year (1st 3 rounds) 4225 next year 699 Both teams have a young QB they can throw into a trade (who are probably both valued about the same) To me a fair trade package would like like this if they wanted 2 1sts guaranteed in the trade which is likely Miami 3rd overall (2200) 18th overall (900) 50th overall (400) 113th overall (68) tua total 3568 + QB Jets 2nd overall (2600) 23rd overall (760) 66th overall (260) darnold total 3620 + QB The jets package is still better. and while we won't have a 1st this year we will still have a 2nd and a 3rd and a FQB guaranteed plus all our picks next year including the extra 1st to build a team. Houston gets a QB back either way but plenty of premium picks including the ability to trade down from 2 turning that 1st into 2 more 1sts and a 2nd at minimum. it's 5 times the value paid out for mack who was at a premium position (edge rusher) the same age pretty much and considered the best defensive player in the NFL at the time. I think those 2 packages are the most fair compensation houston can expect for watson.
The second overall pick is not only worth 2,600 points but gives its holder the right to any player in this year's draft not named Trevor Lawrence. That is more points than Jamaal Adams, Khalil Mack, Tarry Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey put together. The idea that we should give up that pick and more first rounders for one lousy player is insane. We need weapons on offense. We need offensive line help. We need pass rushers (plural). We need help in the secondary. If lack patience and have to have a quarterback right now more than half of the NFL teams would be more than happy to trade their starter straight up for that # 2 overall pick.
I know Joe Douglas realizes this, even if fans still have not figured it out. You bring up multiple great points. 1. The #2 pick is worth more than people realize and 2. The Jets have too many holes to trade away all of that value. Douglas will likely do the opposite and trade down to create MORE picks instead of giving them away.
I agree with the logic, but that logic is only a hedge against a gamble. Players/picks are worth what another team is willing to pay. The number 12 pick might be worth way more then the number 25 pick, but that doesn't mean you are guaranteed a better player at 12. That changes a lot when you get into the top 3. These are usually players that will become all pros at a much higher percentage. If you have a top 3 pick your going to get someone that vastly improves your team (this year that seemingly goes up to top 5). Unless that top 3 pick is a QB, then it becomes a gamble again, based on a lot of variables. Right now the #2 pick is worth a franchise tackle, or a WR that cant be covered. Either of those things would drastically improve the Jets roster for many years to come. We should not discount the impact of us getting either one. In fact, it should make us dancin happy.
Nice analysis. Jay Cutler was traded in 2009. He had similar value to Watson. He was coming off his 3rd year just throwing for 4500 yards compared to Watson's 4800. Cutler was 3rd in passing yards in 2008 with Watson 5th in 2020. Cutler was an ascending player and held in high regard like Watson. 2008 turned out to be Cutler's best year. The Bears gave up 1474 in value plus Kyle Orton.
my other thought if they wanted 3 1sts was we can give them the hawks pick this year and both 1sts next year and the hawks 3rd. that's a value of 1730 almost triple what mack got and more then triple what adams, ramsey, and tunsil went for. then joe could trade down from the 2nd with the lions and get the 7th as well as the 1st rounder they get for stafford and their 1st rounder next year. that would load us up on picks this year and we would have a pick in every round next year still.
nice call and pretty similar situation. ortens value was maybe 20 points tops so around 1500 total. I just put a scenerio where we give up about 1700 and they get multiple 1st rounders
So this actually adds up to a higher value than I have been saying when you consider that future picks are discounted 1 round/year 2nd overall (2600) SEA '22 1st (350) 66th overall (260) '23 1st (155) Getting to use that 23rd overall pick this year would surround Watson with more talent his first year on the team. They could even trade down with the 23rd for multiple picks in 2021. Saying the Jets can't build a winner without 4 1st round picks in the next two drafts is nonsense, especially when they add a guy that has averaged 4300yds, 30tds, and 10int with 400rushing yards and 5 rushing tds. Watson AVERAGES 10 more TDs by himself than the Jets scored last year on offense.
I think the sweet spot for both teams is the 3 number 1s. It’s really the only trade that makes sense for both teams involved. Anything more and it becomes too much of a gamble and anything less they consider another deal. I think that offer is really tough to beat considering the value of #2 and the value of completely restocking your draft capital. 2nd overall + 23rd overall + 1st Sea 2022 for Watson
Given the high price tag for Watson I am going to ask the logical question that hasn't come up yet. How much would we have to give Jacksonville to move up and get Trevor Lawrence instead? He would be much better for our salary cap allowing us to surround him with more talent through free agency if the cost is the same in terms of draft picks. I would rather roll with Lawrence if both players have the same asking price.
I’ve been advocating for this for weeks! I’d give Meyer Jamal’s picks for Lawrence any day! And who knows.. he could feel he’s pulling off a heist because he’s said it before that he thinks Lawrence and Fields are close as prospects.
I look at it a bit differently. I think #2 could fetch an enormous bounty from a team like Washington, Rams, Saints, Bears who are playoff teams that need a FQB. It just takes 1 of those teams to fall in love with Fields or Wilson and offer 3 first rounders for the next 3 years for the pick. so I think in hindsight it’s what a team is willing to pay based on their evaluation of a prospect not necessarily what a point system will calculate
He was not held in the same regard as Watson is. Cutler was a turnover machine with Denver and was notoriously known as a bad teammate especially because of his shitty demeanor throughout his career. There's more that came out about it from his time in Chicago, but none of it is good. The league doesn't view Watson as a malcontent, nor does he turn the ball over at Cutler's rats (before and immediately after the trade). Quarterbacks are also more valued in today's game than they were even ten years ago as amazing as that transformation is. Cutler exceeded a quarterback rating of 90 once in his career, at the tail end of it.
It depends on the pick the other team holds. I think the Jets will not go out of the top ten. Any move down depends on how many teams are willing to make an offer. If several clubs want the pick Douglas can look for the best offer. They have a couple of months and JD holds all the cards. If we have been paying attention the GM is easy to read. He will use free-agency to add several young players on the come and build through the draft. All this Watson etc. stuff is white noise.
I just listened to a podcast where the so called expert said because Houston gave up two 1st round picks for Tunsil they will be expecting a whole lot more 1st round picks for Watson. But what the experts and the media personalties and often the fans forget is the value of these picks. As the OP correctly pointed out Tunsil cost 460 trade value points 1/6 the value of the 2nd pick in the draft. Media types and experts simply do not get this as they want to hype this and get as many hits as possible. Which brings me to the point of the Houston GM trying to sell or market any trade to it's media, the national media and it's fanbase. The media has inflated the expected haul and no matter what Houston gets they will get a poor grade and be told it is not enough. Any kind of fair trade is going to look horrible to their fanbase.
The Bears had 2 winning seasons out of 8 with Cutler, do we really want to use that as a benchmark of what to give up?
Perhaps a If we simply gave them the Jamal Adams picks they would be getting more than two first round picks. Is anyone really going to give more? The smart play is to try to get assets helping a third team acquire Watson. I am sure Houston would love to have that #2 overall pick. We should require a king's ransom to make that happen.
Certainly Cutler's career went downhill after traded to the Bears but what he did after the trade is irrelevant. Before the trade he was on a similar trajectory to Watson and his 2008 year is similar to that of what Watson did in 2020. Cutler was 3rd on passing yards with 4500 yards in 2008 while Watson was 5th in 2020. Both were up and coming top level NFL QBs who were highly in demand, What the Cutler trade shows us how highly teams regard top draft picks and gives us some insight into what a young emerging top level QB is worth in trade chart value. I have no recollection what the market was like for Cutler and how that would be different if Watson is traded. But at this point I will believe Watson is traded when it happens. Most likely Watson will have to completely destroy his relationship with the Texans for that to happen and go on a Jamal Adams or A. Brown type rant. He has not shown the desire to go there yet.
agree, #2 is the cheese and would love the jets be able to wheel and deal that. unfortunately the veteran QB's on the market will demand that pick in any trade. so what to do?? i keep going back and forth between keeping darnold and getting uber aggressive with watson or stafford.
