I think you are giving too much weight to these ratings just because they are on NFL.com. To me they are basically worthless. These people are not held accountable to their ratings just like the McShay/Kiper types aren't. I basically only rely on the talking heads to tell me which round a guy should go in. They have no skin in the game and thus no real incentive to be accurate other than avoiding embarrassment. PFF relies on being accurate enough to convince people to buy premium subscriptions. They will go out of business if they aren't a consistently better option than others. "Suck for Sam" was a media narrative. Kudos to Dorsey for ignoring the noise and choosing Baker anyway. Leading up to that draft I expected the Browns to take Sam which would've likely dropped Baker to our pick, giving us the best QB prospect in the draft by virtue of the Browns being dumb. Unfortunately Dorsey is a pretty damn good evaluator of talent.
I was just giving my opinion earlier not anything official. as far as criteria everything is subjective and stats especially college is meaningless. I'd much rather base it off a scouts eye then pure stats. you know who the top 5 passers of all time are in college? case keenum, timmy chang, landry jones, graham harell, ty detmer. you know who it is in the NFL? brees, brady, peyton, favre, rivers. huge difference. college stats mean nothing for a lot of factors. As far as sams rating out of college he was considered by many the bets prospect since luck. he still has ridiculous arm talent. of course that by itself doesn't make a great QB but he had potential to be the next aaron rodgers. clearly it didn't work out. you are also highly overrating fields. If i had to guess i'd say he's a 6.3 when the ratings come out. he isn't that good at all. I'd rather have wilson or a late round mac jones. fields is nothing special on film. I don't care about his bad games. he doesn't do anything special. which isn't his fault it's the way college systems work but on film he looks like a great college QB who will make a medicore NFL QB. I could be wrong. i have been before. but i've also been more right. you sound like the baker mayfield lovers on here back in 2018 when I said josh allen was better and i'd rather have him.
I'm saying it's literally the only ratings system out there. until someone else comes along and does it. PFF just recently got into doing college sports in the past few years. PFF grades are fine too. but they need to build a base. maybe in 5 more years or so they can be a contrasting source but in the meantime we have what we have. FWIW PFF had baker graded higher then sam, but alot of it is long term production. their system will weight towards QBs with more years as a starter typically which is a flaw in their system. They also had rosen graded higher then josh allen. allen was also graded lower then lamaar jackson and mason rudolph and wasn't considered a 1st rounder by them. They don't look at talent and potential and only factor in actual play which in college has way too many variables to be reliable due to the wide range of talent level differences and conferences
Bakers tape was clearly better than Allen’s are you really arguing differently? Obviously Allen had more upside, but it’s hard to project the type of improvement he’s had.
no his tape wasn't. that was my whole point. Allen had much better tape. baker was very unimpressive. great college QB but nothing on tape that showed it would translate to the NFL. Allen was a mediocre college QB but on tape showed he had the tool set to be a great NFL QB.
If Fields and Wilson are both better than any prospect in 2018, than the answer to the should Jets trade for Watson is simple. No, draft one of them and use the rest of the picks to build around him. Keep Sam for one more year to compete for job or start if rookie is not ready. If Sam turns it around you have a wonderful problem on your hands, if he sucks it up you say goodbye:
This is not a terrible plan, which is why I don't think JD will sell the farm to get Deshaun. I do think he will offer a package centered around #2 and maybe two other firsts, but not much more than that. Why he will try is for the reasons many mentioned in the other thread: Watson is a sure thing, who is young (3 years older than Wilson and 2.5 than Fields) and is already 3 time Pro Bowler, who led NFL in yards. So, a young sure thing star FQB of course is better than a PROSPECT who might become star FQB, or might not. With all that said, if someone else makes a much better offer than above or Deshaun stays (75% probability now that he will not be a Jet), I think drafting someone like Wilson and giving a shot at some point next season, while Sam or some other vet plus Morgan as other QBs is not a bad option. I would still prefer to trade Sam, if we can get 3d rounder or above, but if we can't, might as well stay as a back-up or start a few games initially if rookie needs more time. If it's Wilson though and he gains a bit of muscles, I think he will win the job over Sam.
I completely agree that Sam should have been highly rated, but he was not considered Luck level after his junior season, where "Suck for Sam" talk, which started a year earlier died down. Usually evaluators do things like look at NFL type of situations, and Sam had enough of these, coupled with big arm to earn high rating. Basically you look at him and you see someone who can pretty much make every throw and made a lot of NFL throws. That gets you high rating. Then you say, he made mistakes, and you adjust for that. If he can fix these, he is going to be great in NFL. The problem was that Sam made A LOT of mistakes in College, and I don't think whoever runs this NFL prospect rating site made proper adjustment. With all that said, I think Sam was a good prospect, but you are underestimating Fields. He made a lot of throws that NFL teams like, he has elite athleticism, and he is the most accurate QB from clean pocket. Sam was not, and he is still struggling with this. Also, he is not as reckless with the ball as Sam was, something that he also never cleaned up. You might enjoy this Fields video from a guy, who is a former QB, coach, analyst, and works privately with QBs, and also had a high rating for Sam at the time. Now, of course take it with the grain of salt, but he certainly breaks down some plays really well that show Fields certainly has special qualities:
well i'd say 3 years in in hindsight what I saw was correct I've watch plenty of fields on fields. I'm not impressed. Wilson is more impressive. I'm not in love with any of the prospects and still need to study more on lance but so far I have them ranked wilson, jones, fields out of the 3
