Not counting tlaw since he'll be gone before we pick Fields = mayfield - obviously fields is more athletic and bigger but both have similar arms and had it "easy" in college throwing to wide open WRs. on film they weren't impressive but they did what was asked of them well. have talent but haven't had an opportunity to show they can make plays in the NFL or run an NFL offense Wilson = darnold - gun slinger and improvise. good arm talent. makes off balance throws with ease. best when on the move. tough and gritty. will impress at times lance = allen - physical specimen. inaccurate. need to improve mechanics and accuracy. jones = rosen - smart low floor low ceiling. methodical. can read a defense and progress already. arm isn't as good as the others but good enough Obviously not perfect comparisons and in hindsight allen so far has turned out best and rosen the worst. doesn't mean a lot but those are the closest comparisons film wise i've seen. just thought it was interesting to discuss
So, you are not comparing draft classes, since you are removing Trevor. Then what exactly are you comparing? QBs that will be available to us this year vs what was available to us in 2018? Then you have to remove Baker, who wasn't available. The way I see it is like this: - Trevor is in the class of his own, generational talent. - Fields and Wilson are > than any of 2018 prospects, and that includes Baker. This combination of size, athleticism, scrambling ability, accuracy, taking care of the ball, impressive college records, simply wasn't available in 2018. - Baker, Jones. Who is better is debatable on this one. Baker has mobility. Jones is two years younger at the time he came out, has better size. - Darnold, Allen, Lance. Out of these three I think Lance goes first, then Darnold, then Allen. All good athletes, big arm, high ceiling. Lance seems to have fewer faults, with major knocks as playing tier 3 competition. Sam is TO prone, has some accuracy issues, Allen big arm, but very inaccurate. - Trask, Rosen. I actually think Trask is better than Rosen, but both statues with good arms. Trask makes less mistakes though and more accurate. - Lamar Jackson. As a prospect he is probably ranked below the above players, there was some talk to play a different position. Overall, if you put these drafts together, I see first three definitely being 2021 class of Trevor/Fields/Wilson, with Trevor #1 overall. Maybe even 4 from 2021 with something like Lance as QB4, Baker, Jones, Darnold, Allen (order of these 5 may be changed depending on who is picking), followed by Trask, Rosen, Jackson.
You can't remove Trevor from the equation. It's already a flawed debate by doing that. It's not like we picked number 1 In 2018. We had an even worse draft pick at #3. Yet you are still including Baker Mayfield In this. Doesn't work.
I think Borat did a great job at trying to tackle this overall. I don't think I agree completely but close. Good write up!
Why does there need to be any comparison? Each prospect lives in their own light until they're in the NFL. After they're drafted you can really compare and contrast. Until then it's pretty impossible to try to compare them and include supporting cast, career trajectory, coaching, strength of schedule, etc. all together. This is the hardest draft class in NFL history to evaluate because of Covid. The in-game performances cannot be weighted against any other year because of the amount of players that missed games, games rescheduled, lack of organized practice time and more.
trevor and lamaar don't have fair comparisons so they are left out. trevor wouldn't be an option for us which is why he's excluded anyway. overall it's a pretty fair assesment
They do that for people who don't understand the rest of the scouting report. It's the original TL;DR
Well. I shouldn't have been as blunt as I was last night. But if you're going to make comparisons, I wouldn't isolate yourselves to trying to just use one draft class and force comparisons that might not necessarily be there.
fair enough. just thought it was pretty fitting. if I didn't do one class i'd probably say wilson = darnold/stafford fields = watson lance = cam newton jones = pennington
Just my 2 cents but I'd rank them as follows if they were all entering the draft in the same year: Lawrence Fields Baker Wilson Darnold/Lance (can't decide who I'd give the nod) Allen This is based on a combination of production, athleticism, strength of schedule, PFF ratings and injury concerns.
based on scout ratings and IIRC it would be lawerence (likely hasn't been graded yet) darnold baker allen Not sure where lance, fields, an wilson will be rated but i'm gonna guess wilson and fields in the 6.5 range and lance in the 6.2 range
Which scout ratings are these? The same NFL.com ones cited before where we have no idea who decides them or what the criteria are? Advanced metrics had Baker as clearly better than Sam, meanwhile the dominant media narrative among the Kiper/McShay types was that they were basically even. I give more credence to the advanced metrics.
that is the one but until someone else has a standard grading system for decades it's the standard. it's every stat and grade in football. i mean QBR is a random formula but it's the standard in the NFL
Where can I see these ratings? I mean to me putting Darnold ahead of Fields or Wilson just seems outrageous. I can see why people could drop Baker as the size is a major red flag for a lot of teams, but a guy like Fields for instance is basically anything Sam can do, he can do better, and then some. Aside from simply saying Sam is better, I have not really seen a well thought out argument in favor of Sam. And this is not to say Sam was a bad prospect, just that Fields is better in just about any evaluation criteria.
Sam was extremely highly rated coming out of college. the suck for sam stuff started just like the tank for trevor. nobody predicted baker would go 1st. dorsey just fell in love with him and it changed the whole draft. fields as a prospect has nothing on sam other then speed and resume which aren't huge factors for a QB Here is where you can see the grades 2021 isn't up yet obviously. https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/ here is a short list of 7+ graded players over the past 5 years (7 is considered a pro bowl talent and a big jump from anything below 7) 2020 chase young 7.37 jeff okudah 7.15 derrick brown 7.11 joe burrow 7.07 isiah simmons 7.03 2019 nick bosa 7 josh allen (edge) 7 jeffrey simmons 7 2018 saquon barkley 7.45 quinten nelson 7.40 bradley chubb 7.40 tremaine edmunds 7.3 sam darnold 7.1 vita vea 7 roquan smith 7 daron payne 7 2017 myles garrett 7.5 leonard fournette 7.1 mitch trubisky 7 marshon lattimore 7 solomon thomas 7 sidney jones 7 oj howard 7 malik hooker 7 dalvin cook 7 taco charlton 7 jonathan allen 7 jamaal adams 7 2016 larry tunsil 7.5 myles jack 7.5 deforest buckner 7.4 jayon smith 7.3 zeke elliot 7.3 ronnie staley 7 ashawn robinson 7 jalen ramsey 7 reggie ragland 7 hunter henry 7 vernon hargreaves 7 jared goff 7 leonard flyod 7 joey bosa 7 also goes to show not all drafts are created equal. here is the number of "pro bowl talents" each draft 2016 14 2017 12 2018 8 2019 3 2020 5 only 4 Qbs have earned a 7+ grade over the past 5 years. funny enough goff, trubisky, and sam are all considered busts at this point. burrow is too soon to tell but looked really good so far. of course the draft is a crapshoot. watson was a 6.8 and mahomes was a 6.3 tied with deshone kizer and nathan peterman. it's funny because this is what 1 analysis said about him “Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick.” very similar to what was said about josh allen the following year and why people hated him as a pick. both players are pro bowl QBs
If you want to compare two draft classes based on these rankings, you need the rankings to be available for both, and they are not. Also, click on criteria. It's just looks like someone's opinion, not really based on any statistical formula from what I can tell. PFF ratings at least tell what the grade looks like based on deep statistical analysis. Then you have that as part of your own analysis. So that would be my preference, but we can certainly see what they think of this class when it comes out. It does looks like Sam is overrated. As you said, it's as if they only saw that "Suck for Sam" season, and just completely ignored the whole year after. As far as Fields having nothing on Sam aside from speed and resume, I think this is very unfair to Fields. How about his overall athleticism, which is second to none? How about his dual threat ability? How about being the most accurate passer in College last two years from clean pocket, while Sam ranked #21? Sam still struggles mightily with this in NFL. This is something that is not easy to overcome. Taking care of the ball, TOs were a problem for Sam since day one and gone worse in last year. How about big time performances? Sam had one a year before getting draft, while Fields put together a record Sugar Bowl game just two games back. People soured on Fields, because he had two bad games mid season, but then stepped up in play-offs. Sam's 2 of last 3 games had more INTs than TDs. Sam had a lot to offer as a prospect, but everything he does, Fields does better. If you like him, you gotta love Fields.
