I don't know about that. PFF is about as advanced as NFL statistics currently get and they have Fields and Wilson above everyone from 2018 other than Baker. Fields specifically has way better college numbers than Sam did and Sam was playing against soft PAC-12 defenses.
Fields is a one read QB too. Idk, his upside is where Darnold is. It’s either keep Sam or Wilson but idk. It’s so hard.
Yeah, those are my top 2 choices too. Keeping Sam makes the most sense. However, if he continues to struggle, then you would have wasted another season with him. Douglas and Saleh may deem that too risky.
No. I don't think we should force ourselves into taking the consensus QB at our position. There best possible scenario would be to trade down to maximise our draft position.
Fields has way bigger upside than Darnold. He's more mobile, bigger, more accurate. Could be better at getting to his 3rd reads but I wouldn't call him a 1 read QB. Sam is the worst starter in the NFL, you really don't think Fields or Wilson have a good chance at eclipsing that? When both are rated significantly higher than Sam was coming out of college?
Trading down is extremely dangerous if you like one of the QB's. They go earlier than anyone thinks they will every year.
I'm using PFF since it's probably the most advanced grading system football currently has. The "normal" stats back up their views as well.
We are all entitled to our opinions of course, but from purely objective perspective, there is simply no logical basis to conclude Sam goes #2 in this draft, and to say he is "far" better than others is not rooted on reality. I could see why he could have gone #1 overall in 2018. Baker was the man that year, but he was on his 5th year and also short (6'0.5"), which whether you like it or not is going to take your stock down by a lot. Sam showed good arm, some mobility and athleticism, and some good performances. On that basis alone, he would be a strong prospect. However, Fields and Wilson check all of the boxes as well, yet far supersede him in their performance in pretty much every category. For example, Sam was a poor passer in College even from clean pocket, ranked #21. Fields is a top guy in that category for two years. And has every bit of arm strength, size, better scrambling ability, athleticism, you name it. Sam has been extremely TO prone, and didn't do a good job taking care of the ball. Fields, Wilson, or Lance just don't have these issues. You could make an argument about Lance's level of competition, but even then I think his dual threat ability wins over and he goes ahead of Sam. Mac Jones is another one whom you would have to consider as someone who is similar to Baker. Less scrambling ability, but younger and bigger. The best Sam could hope for in this draft is QB4 ahead of Lance, but more likely QB5. Could even be QB6, depending on what happens with Mac Jones. Just like Baker passed him in 2018, someone might like Mac more too. Again, this is not a knock on Sam, he had strengths, like the top of this QB class, but he did have way more weaknesses than the top QBs of 2021. And someone like Rosen, who went #10 in 2018, is likely going behind Trask in this draft end of first, or second. It's just a better QB talent in 2021 than it was in 2018, and luckily we have the chips to get second best guy out of 6 great prospects.
To give Sam credit, he did have a lot of big time throws, good arm, solid athleticism, and he made difficult throws too, he had scrambling ability, could throw on the run. He stepped up in a big game in his sophomore year, where people were saying he was the top Heisman candidate the following year. So, yes, he was worth a high pick, I don't think we can argue this point. However, his issues were also very big. He was EXTREMELY TO prone when he came to NCAA, and it clearly showed in the third year. While he made big throws, he was also inconsistent. Made bone headed decisions a lot, threw into double coverages a lot when he didn't have to. When it works, it makes for a highlight reel, but more often that not it didn't. Another HUGE thing was that he was not accurate from clean pocket, rated as I said before #21. You would expect higher from top prospect. He was more accurate than Josh Allen, and went ahead for that reason, but that is not saying much. So, there were a few concerns (accuracy, bone headed decisions, TOs), but talent was there, where if he could address these, ceiling was high. Unfortunately, Sam didn't address these in 3 years. Still inaccurate (the worst clean pocket passer in NFL), still very TO prone, still makes bone headed decisions. It could have been the other way around with Allen, where Allen would continue to be extremely inaccurate, and Sam would improve accuracy and TOs, but Buffalo was just more fortunate with their top prospect.
I know it might seem like a good idea to trade down a bit, gain an extra 1st rounder and still get one of these good QBs - I mean who wouldn't want an extra pick? However, right now, Trevor aside, we get to CHOOSE between a fine group of Wilson/Fields/Lance/Mac/Trask. JD, Saleh, and LaFleur will have all these guy over, they will interview them, they will measure every part of their body, they will have them throw, they will ask them to make reads on the blackboard, they will study in detail every play they ever made, they will have doctors evaluate their past injury history, and so on. After all of that you have to believe that they are not going to rate them all the same, that they will have a favorite. If you trade down, that favorite may be gone. Heck, depending how far down you trade, you may not even be picking the second guy on your list. If you trade to #5, both Zach and Fields may be gone. You go #7, and Lance may be gone too. No, no, and hell no. We need to stay at #2 and pick the guy that all the evaluations above made JD and Co think gives us the best chance at a star QB. I for one am quite certain that baring a miracle (like Watson trade) that's exactly what JD will do.
Listening to Saleh talk the last couple days, it gives me the feeling the Jets are moving on from Darnold. He compliments Sam, but never claims he will be the starter and says he has to evaluate everything. That is what he SHOULD say. That doesn't make me think he is moving on. His other quotes about how important the QB position is to a football team and how it is the #1 spot in all sports makes me think he can't be considering Sam as his QB. If you think like that, I doubt you would want a QB who has failed the last 3 seasons as your QB1 to start your Head Coaching career. We are all guessing right now, but I think it is most likely Sam is not the QB, even if Adam Schefter said otherwise.
When I re-watch his RoseBowl come-from-behind victory, the early part of the game (1st half) Sam throws a LOT of bad balls. In the dirt, over the head, INT, ambulance ball. NOt good. Then in the 3rd Qtr he CATCHES FIRE and becomes an amazing passer, especially his last pass to tie the game. So I don't know. What do you think about this: Sam has Brett Favre in his blood w/o Brett Favre's arm. While Sam will make a jaw dropping throw that few QBs would attempt, he's just as likely to throw a really dumb INT. So frustration.
In general I support trading down but I think with QB's that's the game you have to play or you risk someone else getting him. It's such an important position you basically have to reach a bit or the guy you want will be gone.
