The Deshaun Watson Situation (POLL added for the potential price)

I get everyone's reservations about trading for him and if the asking price is too high, which is a very subjective statement as everyone will have a different idea of what is too high, then I agree that we should pass and try to build around Fields/Wilson/etc.

For me, anything more than 3 1's is too much. I would be willing to give up #2 this year, 1 of our 2022 1sts (preferably SEA's but they'd probably want ours) and a 1st in 2023. Even throw in Sam if they're interested and see if we could drop that 2022/2023 1st to a 2nd. This trade would really only affect 2023's draft as we would still have 1sts in 2021 and 2022.

Deshaun's cap hit is large but that's what you pay a guy who just lead the league in passing yards, was 2nd in QB rating, and had a 33/7 TD/INT ratio on a 4-12 team. He's a stud, a no doubt top 3-5 QB in the league in the prime of his career. Even with that cap hit, we'd be able to sign some top-tier guys this FA, which would be easier than we think as we'd instantly become one of the top FA destinations with his acquisition.

You're telling me you guys wouldn't sign up for Deshaun, ARob/Godwin, Mims, Crowder, and Etienne/Harris/etc. as our offensive core going forward? I sure as hell would.

 

Just my $0.02 but, at this point, it doesn't matter which team offers the best package because Watson controls via the no-trade clause.

Figure, the Texans have the least leverage. The easiest solution for them would be to make Watson happy, but they’ve already burnt that bridge. (Shouldn’t be a surprise considering they forced out a GM who was caring for his dying wife.) The organization might call a bluff and force Watson to sit out the year. But after O'Brien and the gross mismanagement, the Texans have negative capital with their fanbase. The Texans cannot replace Watson with a quality QB1 because they’re, IIRC, 7.5M over or so over the cap. The lack of fan support and cap space, plus the lack of future assets, also means that they cannot just release him (not that they'd want to). Barring a miracle reconciliation, the Texans are in a must-trade situation and need a bailout.

The no-trade clause gives Watson tremendous leverage over the Texans. Unlike most trade scenarios, where the team picks the most attractive package, here, it's the player picking. And he probably does not give $0.02 what the Texans get in return. (Interestingly, would-be suitors have to make themselves appealing to Watson. Teams have to be careful not to openly deal with him because of the no-tampering rules.) It does not matter if a team will give the Texans a Herschel Walker or Ricky Williams type package. Nothing happen without the no-trade waiver.

Watson controls right now. If he provides a list of teams that he's willing to go to. This, essentially, shifts the leverage from Watson to the Texans, who can then create a bidding war and sell Watson's services to the highest bidder. But if he just wants to go to one team, like, let's say, I don't know, maybe, the Jets, then the Texans will likely accept any reasonable offer made by the team to which Watson's wiling to be traded.

 

We don't know what Houston would be looking for in a trade. Someone on twitter posts 3 #1s an were all like, "Okay that's the price".

I'm not a fan of Watson's persecution complex. He has only played 3 full seasons and he made the playoffs two of them. Not sure where JJ Watt can apologize for "ruining another year of his career". The Texans got themselves in cap trouble and had to pay the price this season. Same with the Patriots. I don't think anyone is apologizing there. If anyone needs an apology its Jet players.

He wanted more say in the GM hire and didn't have any. So what, it wasn't in his contract to have any say over administrative decisions. That shouldn't even be a thing worthy of complaining about. Its whining. IMO Watson's integrity is falling quickly. He just willingly signed an extension with Houston. One bad season and the wheels come off.

I know the Texans aren't the best run organization but to be honest it just sounds like Watson cant deal with losing. Certainly the Jets aren't the cure for that. It feels like he'd blow up in a ball of flames in the NY media.

 

I’m beating a dead horse here but the Jets have more resources than just first round draft picks. The offensive core you laid out would probably be one of the best offenses in league.

With that being said, I don’t see Watson getting moved. The Texans should be banished from the NFL if they trade him. There is no way Caserio’s first move as GM is trading a 25 year old QB that’s the 3rd best in the league.

 

I wanted to make the point that when people say 3 first round picks that is really vague. Do they mean three high 1st rounders? 3 mid 1st rounders? The 2nd pick is not a normal pick as it is extremely valuable worth 3 late 1st rounders by the trade value chart. If people value Fields or Wilson this pick is worth even more.

So when people say hey the jets can give them the 2nd, next years 1st and another 1st that to me is worth a whole lot more than 3 firsts. We need to properly value these picks and our 1st this year is worth a lot more than one first and next years is quite valuable as well.

 

a pick is only as valuable as the value given to it if that makes sense. even across the rounds. one could argue for example the 7th overall in 2018 was more valuable then the 1st overall in 2019 due to the QB class. josh allen as the 3rd QB taken compared to murray as the 1st.

The other part is diminishing returns. a future 1st is worth less then a 1st in the current year. a draft pick devalues 1 round per year. so a 1st in 2022 is equal to a 2nd in 2021. future picks are always a gamble. do you think houston thought they'd be giving up the 3rd overall pick this year when they made that trade or they thought it would be in the high 20s? our late 1st in 2022 could be in the high 20s but what if wilson gets hurts and seattle sucks and it's top 5? it's always possible.

The problem with draft picks is you can never really know their true value even during the draft because players can be busts anyway but especially future picks. what if jax takes fields? then 2nd overall is worth even more with tlaw available. hindsight is always 2020

Watson however is a known quantity. he's a top QB in the NFL. he's only 25, and he's under contract until 2026. those are all facts and known quantities.

I'll give you a perfect example. If you could trade Jeff okuduh, clelein ferrel, sam darnold, and leonard fournette for deshaun watson would you do it? I think most people would say yes but all 4 of those players are top 5 picks 1 in the least 4 drafts each. Now if you were to say would you trade 4 top 5 picks for watson most people would say hell no but when you look at the names if what those picks could be all of a sudden it's yeah i would trade those players for him.

I'm not saying we should, i'm just saying it's not as cut and dry as people make it to be. JD should at minimum inquire about watson, I would hope he would be we don't know the asking price. on top of that it's 100% dependent on watson. he has a no trade clause. that means if he was to be moved he gets to pick or he won't waive his no trade clause. if he says for example I only want to go to the jets, that really hurts houstons bargaining power where they could force him to play or sit out or take less value. they will need to save face at some point and moving him for nothing isn't going to help them.

 

Watson has every right to want away from that organization. This isn't about winning and losing for him, and it's not even about football. The NFL is a sea of owners/FO that are ignorant/insensitive at best, and racist/bigoted at worst, and the Texans somehow still stand out from the field.

I want him to come to the Jets badly, but even if my nightmare of him going to another AFC East team comes true, I'll still be happy that he escaped the Houston Texans clutches.

 

Are the same people here, who were saying Lawrence should force his way out of a NY Jets marriage, also coming down on a player who is seemingly doing the same thing in their shitty situation?

 

He is big on mental health and stability and I'll before Joe D got here the Jets were not that but the new management in place I think Watson may like our situation. Clearly the weather in Miami is better but the Jets also can build around him

 

If the Texans are so bad then why did Watson sign a contract extension with them before the season? He would have been an FA in 2022.

 

You have it a little wrong. it's more the being lied to. the owner lied to him to placate him and said he coudl have input in the HC and GM. watson liked salah and bienemeny. They didn't interview either of them then went and hired a GM without even letting him know. Prior to this they traded away his top WR for practically nothing.

 

Unfortunately, I completely agree with all of this. I have no doubt that the Jets could put together an attractive enough package that the Texans would want to jump on it, but there's no scenario I can envision where Watson would want any part of the Jets. Some team like Miami will put together a package decent enough for the Texans to just get rid of him and make both sides happy.

 

I think the 2 is in play as a presumption that we’d have to outbid the phins and the 2 is the trunk card in this game

 

he obviously wanted to stay there because he added the no trade clause. My guess is that they traded away hopkins and told watson they had no choice so they can pay him and want to build around him. they then paid him prior to the season to lock him in. then the coach pissed everyone off he got fired watson wanted to have say in the new coach/GM they promised he would be involved then blew him off and did whatever they wanted. now he's pissed off

 

Because it'd be the height of stupidity to leave $160M on the table in a league built on non-guaranteed contracts.

 

And he'd come here and throw to our trash....IDGAF if he threw for 6K...What.Has.He.Won.
You're obsessing...

And TBH, Watson is a top 15QB...not top 5
2020 NFL Season Leaders Total QBR | ESPN

 

with no WRs, no o-line, and a shit defense i'd say it's pretty impressive to lead the league in passing yards while having over a 4:1 TD to INT ratio and averging over 300 yards a game. when was the last time the jets had a 300 yard passer? it was week 12 2019. we haven't done somehting in 21 games watson does on average. and a career 100+ QBR
Not to mention being a 3 time pro bowler and while it's not everything you can defintly argue that makes you a top 6 QB in the NFL or at minimum a top 3 in the AFC

 

And he's not even two full years older than Kyler Murray.