I can’t stress enough how seriously the Jets should be looking at drafting a QB at 2nd overall, whether they trade Darnold or not. One of those guys is going to be worth the 2nd overall pick. I’m not sure you should trade Darnold, it’s better to have depth at the position. My argument would be that $25 million is low end starting QB money and the rookie would be cheap. If Darnold plays great you can keep him, if he plays decent another team would take him at $25 million, and if he plays poorly it was worth the gamble. It’s not like the Jets lack cap space over the next few years.
If the Jets knew which QB picked at #2 was going to succeed I am certain they would make the pick. 35% is what we know about the success rate of QB's picked #2 when another QB was picked #1. That's the problem and the reason the Jets are less likely to go down that road. It's easy to project Robert Griffin III, Marcus Mariota and Carson Wentz as the guy most likely to succeed after another guy went in the #1 spot. However two of the three teams that did that wound up with a problem at QB and some wasted seasons as a result.
The thing is that the farther you drop back, the worse your odds of success become. If...and I stress the word IF...Douglas decides he wants a QB I hope he takes himat #2 so he gets his choice (other than Lawrence). But again, I doubt that's what he's planning.
If that's indeed the case they will keep Sam around for Shits and Giggles and Lafleur gives him Emergency Rehab...hope it work ugh Plus I agree with your previous post of tradedown and perhaps roll the dice on a QB between 6-23
The farther back you draft a QB the lower the success rate gets. It’s like saying I don’t like the pay of that job so I won’t accept it, even though there is not a single job available for more or even equal pay. When I say that at least 1 of those guys is worth the second pick, what I mean is that Douglas and the staff will believe that at least 1 of those guys is worth the second pick.
Sam posted to his IG story a Saleh quote on coaching and trusting your process. I mean you have to think he either one, doesn’t care or two, knows he’s coming back next year. Again, Fields is a one read and one trick pony that clearly is not worthy of the pick. Also, it’s clearly Wilson vs Sam. Do they like Wilson enough? TBD but I think it’s Sam again next year.
After the #1 overall pick there is no significant difference in terms of the results of QB's picked in the rest of the 1st round and the first 4 picks of the 2nd round. Other than the #1 overall pick you are not significantly more likely to find a star QB early in the round than late in the round. This is a phenomenon that was true prior to Peyton Manning and has remained true in later drafts. You are much more likely to find a star QB in the first round + 4 picks of the 2nd round than later in the draft though. The way to categorize QB opportunity is like this: #1 overall pick #2 to #36 overall picks #37 pick and later Adjust for when the 1st round had fewer than 32 picks for era to reflect all the teams being able to say no once and the worst teams saying no twice. The #1 differentiation is partly because generational talents that are clearly recognized as such before they are drafted always go #1. However its easy to forget that #1 overall QB picks can and do bust fairly frequently. This is because the team drafting #1 generally is in desperate need of a QB and they often reach for the best available QB instead of the superstar that most drafts otherwise offer on the #1 pick. The same can be said for teams holding the #2 and #3 picks.
The Jets don't have just the binary choice of picking up the 5th year option or cutting Darnold. He's under contract for 2021 at $920K + 3.8M roster bonus, all guaranteed. They can just keep him for 2021 w/o picking up the 2022 option. At this point in time, knowing what we know now, I think that is the most likely result.
I keep tally on an annual basis, since the Jets always need a QB. You can find any number of posts from me on the topic just by searching for QB and draft for posts under my tag.
There was a coach in Miami I think that's supposed to be a QB whisperer. I think he coached Payton Manning to his record season. Maybe would could get that guy in here to coach Sam? I think TGG would be all for it with his 'genius offensive mind' reputation. Can't recall his name....Chase? Flase? something like that. Anyone remember him???
If Fields or Wilson stayed in school , the would easily be considered the favorite to go number 1 in 2022. Another year of playing in college would really help both of them . that being said how can we pass on trying a qb at 2 . Are we going to come up with a package when we are 6-10 to trade up to get a top 3 pick in 2023 to finally get a qb?Draft either Wilson or fields, play Sam if Sam improves and is our franchise qb ,with a weak college qb class in 2022 we can easily get a a haul of picks for either guy., and if Sam fails, which he probably will. We have a stud qb awaiting in the wings. We have enough draft picks and free agent cash to improve the team without the 2nd pick this yr. We cash it in next yr one way or another
We have one FQB in the draft this year, and 2 or 3 that might be good with the right team and the right coaching and the right circumstances.
A rookie QB thats not ready to start gives us a better chance to win.Darnold threw 9tds and 11 ints this season.It doesnt get much worse then that.Darnold potrays this image of this clean cut all american QB but he doesnt play like one...Yea he says the right things but he doesnt have that competitve it factor.
Pick up the option. Give him 2 years. If he flops in Year 4, cut him...the cap hit won't kill us. Who else do we have making Big Buck$$ ?
