Exploring the options of the #2 pick

Discussion in 'Draft' started by ouchy, Jan 12, 2021.

  1. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    (This thread isn't discussing who to pick, or other scouting/mock stuff, so I'm posting it in the main forum. If it still belongs in the draft section please move it with my apologies. At its heart its really about our options with the #2 pick and their potential values - not who to draft.)

    I'm going to go into some depth about our options with the 2nd pick. Here are all the details for our main options with the number 2 pick. We'll explore each course and the potential value.

    1. Jets use the #2 pick.
    2. Jets trade the pick to a low top 12 team (6-12).
    3. Jets trade the pick to Cinn.
    4. Jets trade the pick to Atlanta.

    OPTION 1
    Jets use the #2 pick and have their choice of anyone not named Trevor Lawrence.

    Net Gain - the #2 pick.


    END OPTION 1

    OPTION 2
    The Jets trade the pick to a lower top 10 team (6-12).

    Several teams in the top 12 want a new QB. I've gone up to 12 to include the 49ers, just in case. In this scenario we would likely pick up a fairly high 2nd and a 1st next season. Jets then pick at where ever they traded.

    Net Gain - A lower top 10 pick, a second, and a first in 2022.

    END OPTION 2

    OPTION 3
    The Jets trade the pick to Cinn. The Jets would likely get two 2nds for Sewell. This route comes with more options.

    3A - The Jets use the 5th pick.
    3B - The Jets trade down in the top 10.

    OPTION 3A
    The Jets use the 5th pick. There will still be a blue chip prospect available here.

    Net Gain - The 5th pick, the 37th pick, a 2nd in 2022.

    END OPTION 3A

    OPTION 3B
    The Jets trade down in the top 10.
    Trading down from 5 will get us much less from the top 10. But still have decent value. I'll go conservative and say we get another 2nd to swap down from 5.

    Net Gain - Top 10 pick, the 37th pick, another 2nd, a 2nd in 2022.
    END OPTION 3B

    OPTION 4
    Jets trade #2 to Atlanta.
    This is perhaps the riskiest and the most rewarding route pick wise. This trade would have to be pretty cheap and we only get Atlanta's second for the swap. First things first. Chase moving up the boards helps us in one scenario and hurts us in another.

    In the original swap with Atlanta it hurts us because Atlanta is in a good position. Right now the top 3 picks after the #1 are Fields, Sewell, Chase. Atlanta can stay put and get one of those 3 players. They would really like Fields and also like Chase. Sewell would be less appealing to them, though not horrible at 4. This is why we'd have to swap with them cheap, only getting their 2nd.

    This route comes with several options and some risks.

    4A - The Jets pick at 4.
    4B - The Jets trade 4 to a top 10 team.
    4C - The Jets swap with CInn.

    OPTION 4A

    The Jets pick at 4.
    This would be either Sewell or Chase, depending on who Miami takes.

    Net Gain - Pick 4, pick 36.

    ENDS OPTION 4A

    OPTION 4B
    Jets Trade 4 to a top 10 team.
    This value is a little more hazy. I see anywhere from two to three seconds depending on where in the top 10 we trade the 4th pick. Or maybe two 2nds and a 3rd. Then we pick at the place we trade.

    Net Gain - A top 10 pick, pick 36, two/three other seconds/third.
    END OPTION 4B

    OPTION 4C
    The Jets swap with Cinn.
    This is where the Chase move helps us. Cinn has OL and WR at the top of their chart. If Miami takes Sewell, Cinn would still want Chase enough to swap with us. If Miami takes Chase, same thing for Sewell. This move comes with its own set of options:

    4C:1 - The Jets pick at #5.
    4C:2 - The Jets trade pick 5 to top 10 team.

    OPTION 4C:1
    The Jets pick at #5.
    There will still be a blue chip prospect available here.

    Net Gain - Pick 5, pick 36, pick, 37.
    END OPTION 4C:1.

    OPTION 4C:2
    The Jets trade pick 5 to top 10 team.
    This value is also hazy but would likely be worth two 2nds to anyone below 7, a 2nd to 6/7. It is also the final trade in a very risky path with the #2.

    Net Gain - A low top 10 pick, pick 36, pick 37, some number of 2nds, perhaps with a 3rd.

    END OPTION 4C:2

    Final summery of options:

    1. Jets use the #2 pick.
    Net Gain - the #2 pick.

    2. Jets trade the #2 pick to a low top 10 team.
    Net Gain - A lower top 10 pick, a second, and a first in 2022.

    3. Jets trade the #2 pick to Cinn.
    3A - Jets use 5th pick.
    Net Gain - The 5th pick, the 37th pick, a 2nd in 2022.

    3B - Jets trade 5th pick to top 10 team.
    Net Gain - Low top 10 pick, the 37th pick, another 2nd, a 2nd in 2022.

    4. Jets trade the #2 pick to Atlanta.
    4A - Jets use the 4th pick.
    Net Gain - Pick 4, pick 36.

    4B - The Jets trade 4th to a top 10 team.
    Net Gain - A low top 10 pick, pick 36, two/three other seconds/third.

    4C:1 - The Jets swap #4 with Cinn, pick at 5.
    Net Gain - Pick 5, pick 36, pick, 37.

    4C:2 - The Jets swap with Cinn, trade 5th to top 10 team.
    Net Gain - A low top 10 pick, pick 36, pick 37, some number of 2nds, perhaps with a 3rd.

    I'm tired so I hope this came out semi clear.
     
    #1 ouchy, Jan 12, 2021
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2021
  2. Rockinz

    Rockinz Well-Known Member

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    This is so well thought out and well done! It’s got to be one of those options lol
     
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  3. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    trading down is by far our best option. I'm not in love with fields or wilson personally. we have a lot of holes. more picks is always better. it's a really good draft for rounds 2 and 3 as well. if we can stock up picks in those rounds it would be huge.

    Right now i'm leaning towards trading down until we get out of the top 10, taking pitts with our 1st pick. campbell with our 23rd pick, and mac jones with our 2nd rounder. then use the extra picks to address o-line, WR, edge. use the late picks (5th and later) for safety depth (wiggins), and a RB. if we can use the 2nds and 3rds to get guys like walker little, landon dickenson, amon-ra st brown i'd be stoked. trading sam for a 2nd or 3rd is also possible and signing a vet like fitzpatrick or even stafford if he shakes loose.
     
  4. Attackett

    Attackett Well-Known Member

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    Fancy way of saying Fields or trade down in which I agree wholeheartedly.
     
  5. Losmeister

    Losmeister Well-Known Member

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    fwiw, new arrival.
    where I stand- Darnold needsa go. He ain't a FQB. Great kid, lousy starting QB- bad field vision, not terrib;y athletic, gets injured every year, inaccurate, inconsistent- ie- just who he was his last year at USC. Again- no hate, really good kid. But ...he rode the ROse Bowl...

    So...we needa QB. Several of the above options are workable. But they ALL have to include getting ridaa Sam and getting a QB.FFS, Flacco was better last year.

    Hell, we could go Devonta @ #2.... I'd be ok w/ Fields or Wilosn @ 2, or trading down, gfoing for a Lance, MAc,Trask et cet.
     
  6. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    The trade with Cinci is the one I've had on my mind and at the same value you state--this years #2 and next years #2. Cinci may go even higher as they believe Sewell is a huge mssing piece.

    Then I'm thinking trading the fifth pick to Denver if Zach Wilson is still available cause I think Elway wants him. Will get another #2 this year plus more this year or next year.

    We end up picking #9 and net 2 extra #2's this year and another next year.

    At #9 we pick (here's where people won't like this) Wyatt Davis OG
     
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  7. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    Excellent summary of options! I continue to be open to changing my mind about which way they should go.

    As a general operating belief I favor offense, and as such really want them to get a legit FQB. While I haven't completely ruled out the possibility that Darnold could still be that with good coaching and vastly improved talent - especially weapons - around him, obviously that's a doubtful proposition. That said, I have a hunch that Douglas still believes in Darnold, so that will drive a lot of the choices he makes.

    Sticking with the idea of getting a FQB, I still prefer Fields at this point. Last night's game didn't change this for me. I thought he showed the courage and "never say die" attitude that I think every great QB needs to have. While he wasn't as accurate as he was in the Clemson game I think a lot of that was due to his severe rib injury, so I'm not concerned about any accuracy issues - also a key ingredient of a great QB (and where Darnold still struggles). And he's strong, and athletic with a big arm - not Allen or Mahomes-level but plenty big. Contrary to some posters here I think he does read the field well and goes through progressions well too, and shows very good pocket awareness and awareness of pressure. Last night he faced one of the biggest pass rushes he's seen and didn't panic and often stepped up into the pocket to complete plays or buy more time. So for me, Fields at #2 is my preference. But I doubt this is what Douglas will do. I think JD will trade back, and if there's a QB he likes at a later pick he might take one, but I think he's not looking at a QB this year. I hope I'm wrong. I like Wilson next, and then I see possible good things from the rest in no particular order of preference as of now, but that might change.

    I'm impressed by Smith, but IDK if I'd use the #2 pick on him. He's the type of premier weapon that Darnold - or any QB - needs and one which the Jets haven't had since I can't even remember when. That said, there are some other receivers who might be as good or better: Chase, Pitts are two that are at the top of that list, but there are also a few like Waddle that could be considered maybe a little lower in a trade back scenario. But however he does it, Douglas needs to vastly improve the offensive weapons.

    I love Najee Harris and Sermon. I lean towards Harris, but they're both similar in that I see them as bigger, stronger versions of McCaffrey and would make a huge difference. They aren't just RBs and might be more valuable than any WR, so they're on my radar.

    And then there's the idea of Sewell either at #2, or if they drop back one or two spots possibly. I agree with those here who tout the idea of a great OL, and while that's never a sexy pick, it has been proven that championships are won by teams with great OL and DL.

    Overall, I think Douglas will wheel and deal a lot to get what he's after, and that will probably mean he takes players that don't get me all excited, but I do believe he'll make the team much better before next season.
     
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  8. KY Jets Fan

    KY Jets Fan Moderator
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    If we drop down to 5 and Zach Wilson is still on the board, I would take him. Especially after acquiring, at a minimum, 2 extra 2nds. You're still looking at having 7 more picks in the first 2 rounds over the next 2 drafts, 3 of which would be in the first 38 picks this year, 23, 34, & 38. Then we'd have 2 1sts and 2 2nds next year.

    That would give JD plenty of capital to turn this thing around fairly quickly.
     
  9. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I think teams wanting to move up to get Sewell is a pipedream. This draft class is filled with first round offensive tackles. Why move up for him when you can sit where you are and get one without sacrificing three+ picks?

    If a team wants to move up it's for Fields or Smith.
     
  10. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this. I think miami takes sewell 3rd overall. if we trade down it'll be with a team that wants fields. Honestly I think this is like 2019 where we had 3rd overall and nobody looking to move up. If we trade down it's gonna be far. I think Den at 9 or SF at 12 is most likely.
     
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  11. ouchy

    ouchy Well-Known Member

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    I don't hate taking Davis at 9. I also think the path you choose (3B, slotting Denver in at 9) is the safest to achieve while still delivering strong draft capital. This would get us about 4 second rounders, with at least 2 being in the top 41. This path does however leave Miami a potential Fields trade.

    I'm not sure that Elway isn't going another season with Lock though. If Elway is determined to get Wilson then going from 9 up to 5 would cost more then a 2nd, which is also good.
     
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  12. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    If we drop that far we'd better be getting a haul.
     
  13. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    ouchy.

    Ouch. Awesome post here. I tip my hate to you. As a mod, I will not move this to another place or merge it with another thread. I am not the only mod or admin here. So let me tag other mods so you wish is granted.

    @WW85 @Cman65 @Petrozza @Royal Tee
     
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  14. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    I think its just Cinci who has a boner for Sewell.
     
  15. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    I wouldn't rule out the Panthers or Detroit. The Panthers have an out from under Bridgewater after this season with only $5 million in dead cap. If Detroit figures out some way to move Stafford without destroying their own cap situation, then they'll be in the market. I think we'll have more clarity after we see the Detroit hires.
     
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  16. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Could be. And there also inept enough to move a bounty of picks for him when they could wait and get another tackle at 4 (Slater).

    I'm not entirely sold on Miami taking him either. Even though their line seemed to suck, they just invested in Austin Jackson (major reach IMO) and two guards last season. They'd be the prime Smith candidate or maybe Chase.
     
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  17. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    Most likely a 2nd this year and a 1st and 2nd next year. If it's the niners at 12 we could also try and get dee ford along with the picks. they need some cap room (but not badly) and could look to move on from him.
    We could grab pitts 12 and campbell at 23. and mac jones in the 2nd. and still have the niners 2nd, our 3rd, and seattle's 3rd. plus in 2022 we'd have 3 1sts, 2 2nds, and a 3rd
     
  18. GasedAndConfused

    GasedAndConfused Well-Known Member

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    detroit could draft a QB but likely sits him for a year behind stafford. same could happen with ATL and matt ryan and carolina and bridgewater. lots of teams could take a QB it'll be interesting. but doens't mean they would move up for one, more like if a QB they like falls situation like GB and philly did last year
     
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  19. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    As you and I have both envisioned a scenario where we acquire 2 more #2's this draft, have you considered that we draft Mac Jones with around the 38th pick?
     
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  20. ColoradoContrails

    ColoradoContrails Well-Known Member

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    A package such as that would be appropriate I guess, especially if they throw in someone like Ford. I would look to take some different players than you mentioned though. I'd consider Najee Harris at 12 because I think he and Sermon are special talents, like McCaffrey, not traditional RBs and therefore bring a lot more to the table. I'm not familiar with Campbell by name - OL? - I'd definitely look at a top OL at 23, maybe a pass rusher, or a TE or WR. All of that is dependent on whether they're sticking with Darnold or will be looking for a new QB. If they do want a new QB then they need to stay at #2 and take their guy.
     

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