Whether fair or foul, Tua was viewed as much less of a product of his system than Mac Jones, AJ McCarron, Jake Coker, etc. I will say. Mac Jones has a big boy arm. He's just a statue in the pocket and that's concerning for a lot of folks.
That's fine if Douglas doesn't care which one he gets, but I doubt that. I'm sure he has a preference, and moreover, whoever the new HC is will certainly have a preference. If in fact they DO have a preference they should stay at #2 and take him.
No, passing on a QB at #2 doesn't necessarily equate with not valuing a QB, but when posters say that there will be a "good" QB available in a year or two, it shows that they don't value the QB position. They are assuming that all QBs are equal and they are assuming that it's easy to get one. All QBs are not equal and the topnotch ones are not easy to get. Whether or not the defensive is built is irrelevant to the QB position. Sorry, but that is a nonsensical requirement imo. I can understand wanting to have a solid OL to protect the rookie, but one doesn't have to start the rookie QB day one. The thing is that we've seen what can happen when a bad team hires a new HC. Teams can turn around quickly, and that is especially true when that team has a lot of cap space with which to sign FAs, and a bunch of draft picks over the next two years. That could lead to much worse draft position in 2022 and 2023 and the Jets have no realistic chance at getting a topnotch QB prospect. Fields is seen as being not far behind Lawrence as a prospect. It is not a given that there will even be a QB of his level in the 2022 or 2023 draft, much less the Jets have a chance of getting him. When you have the chance to add a topnotch QB prospect and you don't have a topnotch QB, you have to take him. To trade down and take a positional player is just flat out stupid. There's no other way to put it. Your concerns are valid. I have some responses to them. 1) Those are good, valid questions, but don't forget that just as their teammates are talented, so is the QB, and chances are that he's more talented than most of the other QB prospects. You can't coach talent. Yes, there are other things one must consider other than just talent. Most QBs will play poorly on a bad team, because that usually means that there is little talent around the QB, and perhaps even the coaching and play calling are bad. I think a better question here is "Does the QB elevate the play of players around him?" 2) The playing conditions/weather/climate is spot on. The Jets play in the NE. They need a QB with a strong arm like Allen to deal with the winds in the winter. That's why I didn't want Watson. I didn't think his arm was strong enough to be successful here come playoff time. Fields checks that box, answers that question. 3) The team does not have to be ready. Sorry, but imo this is backwards. The better the team is, the lesser your chances of being able to draft a topnotch QB prospect. You have to take the QB when your team is bad and drafting high, and then build around him. That is especially true when you're rebuilding and have just hired a new HC. THAT is the time to get your QB so the HC/OC can design the offense around the talents of the QB. So he can be there from the start developing chemistry and rapport with his teammates and learning the system. QBs usually help others learn the system. Having your team built and then adding the QB, means the team has to wait on the QB to learn the offense and get on the right page with them, and adapt to the system that's already in place. Sorry, but that's totally backwards and not the way to build a team. I'm glad to see that you said if there is an awesome QB sitting there, you take him. That's right imo. Starting a vet and letting him take the pounding can make total sense. That gives the rookie time to adjust to the speed of the NFL, to the complexity of NFL defenses, get to know his teammates, watch tons of film, and make his transition easier and more successful. 4) Yes! This is a very important question. How quickly does he process information? Work at the whiteboard is very important. Some QBs have ton of physical talent, but are less talented (sometimes much less) mentally. I think that is the case with Sam, and why I think he will never be a quality NFL QB. Does he make smart decisions? Can he read the D? Does he know where all his receivers are supposed to be/will be on any given play? Can he quickly go through his progressions? I also agree that we shouldn't ignore history. We should learn from it. Saying that we shouldn't take the #2 QB because other #2 QBs have failed is dumb. That's like saying we shouldn't take this QB from a certain university because that school has never had a good QB before, so since he plays there (or plays in this particular type of system) he must not be any good. That's what caused us to pass on Mahomes and Watson (even though I didn't think his arm was strong enough for NE winters, he was a MUCH better prospect than Sam ever was). We can't repeat the mistake of 2017. We saw what that led to...wasted draft capital in 2018 and 2019 trading up in 2018, and then three wasted years of mostly lousy QB play. You don't pass on topnotch QB prospects when they're sitting there at your pick and you don't have to waste draft capital to move up to take them. The only valid reason for not taking Fields would be that JD thinks he's overrated, and likes Wilson or Lance better. Even then he'd damn well better be right, because if not his career is over.
My take: Mia 3 and Cincy 5 would both love Sewell to protect their QBs. Atl at 4, don't see a sure fire edge player, think they would entertain trade with a team wanting QB. So, talk to Mia and Cincy about trade. If you want one of the QBs, you convince Mia you are trading and get significant value to drop one slot, maybe second round pick 3. If you don't want QB, execute above trade then auction pick 3 to QB hungry teams.
If Atlanta and Miami were in the reverse positions we could probably have pulled off a double trade like that. But Miami knows were are going to get more for trading Fields then we are trading Sewell. So they would stay put and wait for him at 3. If the Texans would have pulled off and upset yesterday things would have been different.
I can't tell you why. Mac Jones is damn good. I guess maybe everyone was enamored with the Tua pass to win the Championship, idk.
NCJets, great comments but I agree and disagree. History is full of talented QBs who where put behind bad olines and became failures. Were they bad or the situation ruined them. I think Darnold as a rookie behind the Cowboys line with motivated Zeke would have done every bit as well as Prescott. Other examples of Brady, Rothlisberger entering and being in run oriented offenses at first and developing as passers exist. I agree on d can wait. We have a left tackle and some parts. Had we secured the first pick and Lawrence, I would have been fine with every draft pick being offense as long as multiple were on the line to build it on the fly. Sewell is very attractive and adding offensive weapons and trying Sam I can squint and see. I could also see dumping Sam but you need to build the line. Young QBs need more time to process. Playcalling/design can certainly help but a line is a QBs best friend.
Douglas has shown that he's not afraid or has no taboo against trading with a division team. It would be great to fleece a pick out of Miami and still get the QB we want. As much as they may want Sewell, I'd be surprised if they were willing to give us a pick to get him and still knowing that we got the QB we wanted. There had better not be any not wanting a QB. If so, then Douglas isn't the right GM.
Yes but my point was we will get much more in a trade for Fields then for Sewell. If we trade with CIncy we get less and hand Miami the Fields trade. And trust me - they'd deal him. It would be a disaster.
Can we trade with a team conditional on them drafting only a certain guy or more to the point....NOT drafting the guy we want ? Can you put that in the trade details ?
You can, but that doesn't mean that the other team will honor the trade details. They could lie and say we won't take that player, we want this one, but then after the trade is made, they could take whatever player they wanted or trade down. The NFL would not intervene. They would poison trading with that other team ever again, but in the case of the Jets and Dolphins, since they're in the same division, the Dolphins may not care about ever trading with the Jets again.
i get that drafting number 2 gives you more options in who you choose. and in that sense JD needs to think long and hard about whether to use this pick for a QB because he might not have those opportunities again (hopefully we don't keep picking so low). That said, there is more to QB success than the QB himself. Rest of the team, the field and region of country etc. ALso defense is highly relevant. I don't understand why you would say the opposite. Field position is crucial which is as much a factor of defense as special teams. Complementary football (PSA alert to board generally -- complementary meaning each benefits the other; complimentary means paying a compliment like "nice cleats you're wearing today) .We just had a season with poor field position (inside 20 etc) and no running game. those shitty situations effect play calling and beget other shitty situations, e.g., after punting then defending a short field, then eventually having your offense forced to play catch up (again not ideal as things get more predictable). Some of our best QB success is when we had a good running game, and good play action. Hypothetical: regarding QBs what do you do if you're JD and according to your prospect ranking criteria, the second best QB is only valued at 6 or 11 slot? I'm not saying that's where Fields or Wilson should be because I'm horrible at projecting college talent but i do have concerns about whether their success will translate. (Does anyone remember that Rosen was supposedly the most NFL ready of his year?) DO you grab the QB anyway because who knows when you'll be this high again. Take the guy who you do value at 2? Or try and trade back to get your guy at a better spot? What would you do in JD's shoes under those circumstances? it's an enormously difficult question. If JD wanted my advice (he shouldn't), we should be focused on a top defense first, and the ability to run the ball. It's not sexy but it translates in our region and on the road. if there is a QB worthy of #2 I won't complain (e.g., maybe Fields or Wilson would be worthy of #1 in other years; maybe they're the second coming of Winston and Mariotta???), However, I am just as happy picking someone else if they're the next Bosa or Von Miller, and even using a vet while a rookie learns the NFL from the sideline until he's ready and until we can protect him.
I disagree. Some of our difference may be semantics, and we may be talking past each other here, but on other points, there is a clear difference and strong disagreement. The defense is not highly relevant as to whether or not the QB succeeds. Yes, field position matters, so the D has some relevance, but as we have already discussed when you don't have a solid OL in front of the QB or the QB doesn't have any skill position players around him, then he is not going to succeed, so the defense HAS to take a back seat. It's mostly only relevant to the overall success of the team. Initially when a team has drafted a rookie QB, their first concern must be ensuring that that rookie develops and succeeds. That means that if they don't have at least a solid OL and good playmakers then their focus has to be to upgrade their OL and skill position makers. Upgrading their D has to wait. If they already have a solid OL (say top 15 or better) and good skill position players on offense, then they can take a more balanced approach. Within reason, value has to be thrown out the window when drafting your QB. You cannot be concerned that you're not getting perfect value for the QB. The most important thing is getting that QB. If you have to overdraft him, you do it. The overdrafting of QBs in the NFL is a fact of life. If you need a QB you do what you have to do to get him. The QB position is THAT important. You don't wind up missing out on the QB because he isn't perfect value and take an attitude like any old QB will do. No, you don't trade back in those circumstances. You take your QB and don't look back. The only way you don't trade back is if you don't think that QB is that good or will be a good fit for your system. For JD that shouldn't be a consideration, since Fields IS that good. He fully deserves being taken #2, and hopefully, JD will be hiring a HC who will design/build/tailor his offense around what the QB does well and disguises/hides his weaknesses until those are improved/removed. Well, I pray that he won't listen to you or anyone like you, because imo you have everything totally backwards. You have the same philosophy the Jets have had for the last 10-15 years, i.e, win with Defense. That's totally wrong. To keep trying to win that way is the definition of insanity. It doesn't work in today's NFL where the rules favor the offense and where one must have a topnotch QB to win consistently. It doesn't translate, either. You're wrong and your philosophy is wrong. You're smarter than this. Wake up.
Newsday today ran their first mock draft of the eighteen positions currently locked in by the non-playoff teams. There are some surprises when it comes to QBs, Here's the whole thing because it's probably paywalled. SPORTSFOOTBALL 2021 NFL mock draft 1.0: The first 18 picks Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence passes against LSU during the first half of the College Football Playoff national championship on Jan. 13, 2020, in New Orleans. Credit: AP/David J. Phillip By Nick Klopsisnicholas.klopsis@newsday.com @nickklopsisJanuary 4, 2021 8:58 AM Trevor Lawrence, who squarely is in the Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning "generational" status of prospects. Lawrence brings a complete skillset to the NFL: size, arm strength, accuracy, mobility, leadership and a winning pedigree (he’s only lost one game since high school) 1. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson This pick is as no-brainer as it gets. Gardner Minshew surprised everyone with a good rookie season in 2019, but couldn’t build on it in 2020 — and quite simply, he’s not Trevor Lawrence, who squarely is in the Andrew Luck/Peyton Manning "generational" status of prospects. Lawrence brings a complete skillset to the NFL: size, arm strength, accuracy, mobility, leadership and a winning pedigree (he’s only lost one game since high school). 2. Jets: Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon The Jets lost out on the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes late in the season, but falling to No. 2 gives them more options. Do they still start over with a new rookie quarterback, even if that QB isn’t anywhere near Lawrence’s tier? Do they give Sam Darnold one more chance with a new head coach and give him the receiving help he’s desperately needed since his rookie season? Do they add a bookend to Mekhi Becton and give Darnold two mammoth blockers? In this case, they go with the third option. Penei Sewell opted out of the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but he still is the best blocker in the class, with excellent upper-body power in the run game and the technique and arm length to hold off pass-rushers. 3. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans): Micah Parsons, ILB, Penn State The Dolphins are in a very good spot this offseason: Tua Tagovailoa showed great promise as a starter, the defense was solid in all areas and there aren’t many key players set to leave in free agency. That leaves them in position to go best player available at the top of the draft. Micah Parsons opted out of the 2020 season, but he’s a versatile linebacker who can do anything asked of him. 4. Atlanta Falcons: Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama The Falcons’ secondary allowed the most passing yards per game (307.4) and the third-most touchdowns (34), and with Darqueze Dennard and Blidi Wreh-Wilson set to hit free agency, they need another corner opposite 2020 first-rounder A.J. Terrell. Patrick Surtain II — the son of the former Dolphins and Kansas City cornerback — has the size (6-1, 203), ball skills and fluidity to lock down receivers. 5. Cincinnati Bengals: Rashawn Slater, OT, Northwestern Joe Burrow will need some extra protection when he returns from his torn ACL and MCL. Rashawn Slater opted out of the 2020 season, but he’s an aggressive, physical blocker who moves very well and can play either tackle spot or inside at guard. 6. Philadelphia Eagles: Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech Darius Slay has been a big help for the Eagles’ secondary, but he turned 30 on New Year’s Day, and the other corner spot has been nothing short of a talent void. Caleb Farley opted out of the 2020 season, but he has an excellent mix of size (6-2, 207), speed, and physicality in press man coverage. 7. Detroit Lions: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, LSU This pick largely depends on who the team hires as its general manager and its head coach. No matter who comes in, however, the Lions will have to start thinking about an eventual life after Matthew Stafford, whether it happens this offseason or next. Ja’Marr Chase opted out of the 2020 season, but he won the Biletnikoff Award and shattered SEC receiving records in 2019 thanks to his great hands and mixture of speed, shiftiness and physicality. 8. Carolina Panthers: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU Teddy Bridgewater is one year into his three-year, $63 million contract, but he didn’t exactly look like he did when he went 5-0 as Drew Brees’ backup in 2019, so it’s not totally out of the question for Matt Rhule to find an eventual replacement. Zach Wilson is a well-rounded quarterback with a great deep ball, solid mobility and a sixth sense for pressure.
9. Denver Broncos: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State Drew Lock has had a bumpy start to his career — does John Elway decide to move on after two seasons? Trey Lance has excellent mobility, a strong arm and ideal size (6-4, 226), but he played only 17 career games against inferior competition at the FCS level. 10. Dallas Cowboys: Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina The Cowboys allowed 29.6 points per game, fifth-most in the NFL, in large part due to a pass defense that allowed a touchdown on 6.6 percent of attempts. Jaycee Horn —the son of former NFL receiver Joe Horn — is a lengthy outside corner who thrives in physical, press coverage. 11. Giants: DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama 2021 undoubtedly will be put-up-or-shut-up time for Daniel Jones, so look for the Giants to give him more help at receiver, especially if they decide to designate Golden Tate as a post-June 1 cut ($8.5 million cap savings, with $2.3 million in dead cap). DeVonta Smith emerged as Mac Jones’ favorite target on Alabama’s high-powered offense and was a Heisman finalist thanks to his excellent technique and soft hands. He’s a bit on the thinner side at 6-1, 175 pounds, but he plays like a much bigger receiver and could be a No. 1 target in short order. 12. San Francisco 49ers: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State Jimmy Garoppolo has struggled to stay healthy ever since arriving in San Francisco, and according to Spotrac, he only would count for $1.4 million in dead cap and in both 2021 and 2022 if he were cut after June 1, with a 2021 cap savings of $25 million. All of that may be enough for the 49ers to decide to move on despite more pressing needs. Justin Fields is an excellent dual-threat quarterback with a ton of pure athletic talent, but questions remain about his ability to go through his full progressions. 13. Los Angeles Chargers: Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech Another year, another offseason in which the Chargers desperately need a left tackle — and with all the flashes that Justin Herbert showed in his rookie season, GM Tom Telesco would be wise to protect him. Christian Darrisaw moves well for a 6-5, 314-pound tackle, and he has the length to be a solid pass protector. 14. Minnesota Vikings: Kwity Paye, Edge rusher, Michigan Mike Zimmer called his defense "the worst one I’ve ever had," so look for the Vikings to add massive reinforcements on that side of the ball, starting with a pass rush that only mustered 23 sacks. Kwity Paye has the physical tools, explosiveness and motor to get to the quarterback, and he’s an ideal fit for the 4-3 scheme that Zimmer loves to use. 15. New England Patriots: Mac Jones, QB, Alabama Cam Newton disappointed in his first season as the Patriots’ starter and only signed a one-year deal, and the jury still is out on Jarrett Stidham as a long-term solution. In this scenario, Bill Belichick gets a Heisman finalist who played under good friend Nick Saban. Mac Jones is a very efficient passer —he completed 76.5 percent of his passes in his first full season as Alabama’s starter — who can overcome average mobility and arm strength with pinpoint ball placement skills, smarts and pocket presence. 16. Las Vegas Raiders: Gregory Rousseau, Edge rusher, Miami (Fla.) The Raiders only had 21 sacks, fourth-worst in the NFL. Gregory Rousseau opted out of the 2020 season but was one of the nation’s best pass-rushers in 2019 with 15 1/2 sacks. He has excellent athleticism, burst and length. 17. Arizona Cardinals: Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick are impending free agents. Eric Stokes is a long press corner with the speed to stay in lockstep with any receiver. 18. Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama After getting a stalwart linebacker at the top of the draft, it’s time to get Tua Tagovailoa some more receiving help to go with DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki. Why not bring in one of Tagovailoa’s old friends from Alabama? Jaylen Waddle is recovering from a broken ankle, but when healthy he’s a speedy threat that can turn a short slant into a long touchdown. Pick order TBD: Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears, Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams), Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Baltimore Ravens, Jets (via Seattle Seahawks), Pittsburgh Steelers, New Orleans Saints, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City By Nick Klopsisnicholas.klopsis@newsday.com @nickklopsis Nick Klopsis is Newsday.com's sports editor. He often can be found studying NFL and college football film for his latest draft breakdown.
I dont agree with anything in this mock after the first pick. The eagles have been lacking an impact WR for years an will certainly grab one at 6. If we took Sewell the phins would also go WR. There is no way Fields falls to 13 unless he really craps the bed against Bama.
