I'll say this...if the draft order stays the same, ALL THE EXCITEMENT starts with the Jets at #2. You know Jacksonville is taking Trevor Lawrence so there's nothing to talk about except how many Super Bowls he's gonna win and how long it takes him to be a Top 5 QB in the NFL. As for the Jets at #2.....chew on this over at NFL Network, ESPN, FoxSports, and Mike Florio's PFT show: Jets take a QB at #2 Jets take Sewell or Smith at #2 Jets trade down and grab a non-QB in the Top 10 Jets trade down a bit (2-4 spots) and grab a QB in the Top 10 TONS of things to discuss with the Jets. I guess that's the only benefit to losing out on Lawrence.....we'll be all-over the football draft talk discussions the next few months.
Why do you say that ? You have to ask yourself: is he putting up better COLLEGE STATS than those guys with traits that WILL NOT translate over to the NFL ? Lots of Heisman QBs were chosen in the 3rd or even 5th rounds because they were NOT seen as NFL prospects given their arms, physical traits, etc.
If you think Trask is better, why? How about including some links to video and analysis sites? EDIT: Sorry, Lance, not Trask.
When I see Lance's scouting profile, I think Josh Allen 2017. If you simply look at stats, you think "I don't get it. This guy barely completes over 50% in a weak-ass conference". If you look at his tape, you see a guy running for his life flinging the ball all over the place with a few amazing plays every once in a while. The point is, a lot of drafting is about projection.It's not just what the player is, it's what they could be in the NFL with the best coaches in the world fixing their flaws. Lance's throwing ability and running ability are extremely rare based on what I've seen and read.
I agree with what you say. A lot of people think that just because Trevor is so good that all the other QB's have to be unworthy of our pick. This is going to be a call that will be made by JD & other NEW coaches. Who knows, the new OC may like what he sees in Sam and think he can fix him. With Gase & Loganes gone, I will have alot more faith in the decision making of JD & new CS. This Year is going to be real interesting come free agency & the draft. My Guess is he goes with Wilson at #2. This gives JD & the new HC a fresh start with a QB on a rookie contract.
It’s not about him needing work.. It’s about him putting in work. Wilson is a good talent with a nice arm but trust me he is no where close to being pro ready. He’d be perfect for a team like Atlanta, Tampa, Indy etc etc. Learn the game with competition at practice running the 2s. Then maybe just maybe he has a chance to develop. He reminds me of Brett Favres situation when he was super raw with talent drafted by Atlanta in the 2nd and practiced against pros and then impressed those pros enough for Ron Wolfe to give up a 1st for him for GB to mould with their coaching staff that was loaded with QB gurus. My point is Wilson needs to sit and take reps in practice and this isn’t what the Jets need.. we need a pro ready QB.
I am a fan of Donald, but Wilson's TD to INT ratio 33/3, also 10 rushing TD, & the cost savings we will have the next 4 years to me makes Wilson the pick.
The problem us fans make is that we let our emotions get in the way of evaluating prospects. All of us want the next Mahomes, that’s one thing. Saying Zach Wilson is the next Mahomes and being fearful of passing on him with the #2 pick is something else entirely. The experts are saying when it comes to Qb’s it’s a two horse race -Trevor and then Fields. When looking at Wilson vs Mahomes - Mahomes is 230 lbs and has a completely different level of arm talent. One guy has a howitzer + can throw 85 yards, the other guy struggled to throw it 60 and it landed short of the endzone... I’ll go one further - Darnold 100% has a better arm than Wilson too + if they both were in the same class, Darnold would be deemed the better/higher rated prospect too... Not taking Wilson at #2 is NOT passing on Mahomes. That’s just fear mongering... Also you can’t just keep taking Qb’s without knowing what you have. Only in Jets land can we say Sam Darnold is a complete bust, but also say - we should trade him for a 2nd rounder. Also most everyone believes he can succeed elsewhere... my suggestion is, why not here? If you believe the reports JD, Jets and the entire league are not nearly as down on Darnold as fans... We were on our way in 2019... Gase has been awful in 2020... Darnold has been horrible too... But played well last week and has 2 more games to show us something. Trevor Lawrence was the only way we were drafting a Qb with out 1st pick. A new coach is on the way so what is better - Taking Wilson, hoping against all logical odds that he performs like Mahomes in year 1 or at best waiting 3 years to see if he develops? Or taking Sewell and giving Darnold 1 more year with a real coach, real oline, running game and maybe another Wr or TE...
I agree that emotions cloud logic but I think the biggest example of that with the Jets is fans clinging to hope that Darnold will work out when basically all of the evidence we have on him suggests he won't. I wanted Darnold to be the guy when we drafted him. I liked the pick and thought he'd be a big improvement for us at QB. He just isn't though. In fact he is a downgrade. I have very little doubt we'd have won more games the last 3 seasons with Fitzpatrick at the helm. With this in mind I don't think fans are getting overly attached to Wilson/Fields, I think we just realize that just about anyone would be better than Darnold. Sorry, I don't think giving Sam a slightly better OL next year is going to miraculously catapult him from worst starter in the league to anything resembling our long term solution.
So I saved you a little effort. I was curious about Lance and found this: http://ninetynineyards.com/2020/11/18/trey-lance-scouting-report-everything-you-need-to-know/ Which includes and embedded highlight reel. After reading/watching this, and reading a few other sites, I think Lance is a possibility, but purely as a project. He's only played one full season and that was against weaker competition. Anyone having reservations about Wilson because of strength of schedule will be really concerned about Lance then. And he's got some issues that need cleaning up: he plays in a one read system; he often takes off running quickly if his first read isn't there. He is strong, has a good arm, and looks accurate, especially on deep balls, and he's played and grew up in cold weather. If Douglas is sticking with Darnold, or is going to get another competent vet to enable Lance to sit and learn for a season or two, and he can get him later than the first pick, maybe he's worth taking, but I hope they find an answer to QB that returns dividends much sooner than I think Lance will.
I’m not there yet. Too much was invested in Darnold to give up on him with a total lack of a full offense around him. I think football is a team sport. Schemes matter, coaching matters, players matter, not just Qb. You draft another Qb and don’t fix the other pieces and you’ll never know what you have. No qb has ever succeeded on his own... certainly not in their first 3 seasons in the NFL. I’m a firm believer that Qb’s get both too much of the blame and too much of the credit. It’s pretty sobering when you visit a Bengals forum and they are totally unbiased (to the Jets) + realize Sewell is the best overall prospect in this draft and doesn’t make it past the Jets to #3. Only here do we dream of selecting not the 2nd best Qb prospect, but the 3rd best with the #2 pick. A kid with numerous concerns (competition, injury, frame)... And it’s rinse and repeat. When Wilson bombs with an offense full of holes, instead of fixing all broken pieces (which is harder but the way to go), we can say Wilson is too old at 23, it’s on to the next guy...
"Too much was invested." That's a logical fallacy. You don't stick with a guy for longer just because you spent more to get him. The cost is in the past, it is meaningless to the actions we must take in the present. No QB has ever succeeded on his own? We have two guys who did that just this season, and both were rookies. Burrow before injury and Herbert have been very good QB's this year on very bad teams. I will reiterate - Sam was the worst QB in the NFL this season from a clean pocket. It makes absolutely no sense to stick with him while sinking more resources into the OL. The main problem with our offense is what's happening behind the OL, not the OL itself. I would also add that very good teams with mediocre QB's almost never consistently compete for a title. The teams that make deep playoff runs consistently are almost always teams with elite QB's. Nothing else really matters when you have a QB as bad as Darnold.
Both hebert and burrows have better options to throw to and both of their teams are doing exactly what the Jets are doing... losing games. Sam was 6th in the league throwing from a clean pocket in 2019, but I know it doesn’t fit the narrative. I think Gase’s game plans have been atrocious... He’s still just 23, to say he doesn’t deserve a chance with a real head coach, someone other than Frank Gore as his RB and 1-2 more options at WR and TE is plain silly. Not saying you can’t draft or bring in another Qb, just that right now it doesn’t look like their is anyone at #2 worth selecting over Sewell.
And when i say too much was invested, I mean you don’t give up on Qb’s who are just 23, can make all the throws, are good athletes and who the experts say - have rare talent / can make certain throws only a few guys in the entire league can make... look no further than the Rams game where his shitty WR dropped it in the endzone... jaw dropping throw. Also it’s not like he hasn’t shown glimpses of being a stud (Dallas, GB, very first game vs Detroit)... but he’s 23 too old... time to move on.
Just to clarify my point, I said I would be worried if JD passed on top QB (like Zach) because of Morgan. That's exactly what happened when Mac passed on actual Mahomes. He liked Mahomes, we needed a QB, but he passed on him since we already had Hack he drafted before. If JD feels Zack or Fields are not good prospects after workouts, interviews combines, etc, that's a different story, so I don't think anything I said is fear mongering. Zach did throw that 65 yard pass right at the end zone line, and I am not sure that's because he could not through farther, or it was where he felt it could be caught. He showed enough where there is a consensus among analysists where he has a very good arm talent, if not like Mahomes, then not too far behind. And my personal hope is that Fields steps up too, so that we have a choice of two really good QB prospects, and pick who we feel is better. With all that said, I am not disagreeing with you that Sam could have gone higher than Zach if they came out the same year. I think it would actually be close and Sam could get the edge. My point is that we had 3 years of Sam already. I don't think he is worth a second round pick now to be frank, more like 3d or 4th. Basically, he has TODAY similar value as Morgan, not like Zach/Fields. Still a chance he can develop, but not a very high one. I am not sure most think he can develop somewhere else. More like come in as a back-up somewhere, and when time comes demonstrate if you made progress/developed. Like 3d/4th round pick would. I can see that. Could he be a back-up for the Jets? Maybe, but if we could get a 3d/4th rounder, keep a vet like Flacco to start initially and learn from, and Morgan plus 1st round QB pick, I would be a lot happier, because there is a much better chance we will have FQB in the making on the roster.
Herbert and Burrow have slightly better people to throw to and are putting up much better stats in their rookie years than Sam ever has during his 3 years. There are no excuses for Sam. You can't outline the advantages Burrow and Herbert have had and completely ignore the advantages Sam has had - namely being in the league 3X as long as them. I would also add that Burrow had by far the worst OL in the league this year. Why don't you cite that? You're not being fair, you're just making a biased case for Sam. Yeah, Sam's young, but he's also shown no ability to improve his weaknesses. Time is just that, time. It doesn't guarantee improvement. Some guys are just bad and can't get better no matter how hard they try. Not everything is a function of effort+time. Talent is a thing. Learning habits are a thing. Default mental processing speed is a thing. I'm not even saying Sam has had good weapons or a good OL. I'm saying his weapons and OL haven't been so bad as to excuse Sam being the worst starter in the league by a large margin. It's fantasy to think we have the luxury of giving Sam another full season before making a judgement. The opportunity cost of doing so and him still not being the guy is gigantic. The odds are pretty good that Sam is what he is. We'd be operating on hope alone by sticking with Sam for another year, and that's not how smart franchises are run. If your QB can truly "make all the throws" and is a "good athlete" and has "rare talent" then he wouldn't be the worst QB in the NFL for three years running. You're clinging to things you hear Mel Kiper say about tons of QB's every draft when we have 3 years of actual NFL play that show Sam is terrible. See what I meant about letting emotion marry you to ideas that have long been disproven?
The HELL it didn't happen!!! Quit lying to try to prove your point. JD added Becton at LT, Fant at RT and McGovern at C, and Van Roten at OG. Things started rough because of no mini-camps, OTAs, a shortened TC and no preseason. JD doesn't need to be supplanted (replaced). It's rich how you ignore the many reasons for NOT drafting Sewell. That's a sure sign imo that you don't have a clue about positional value in the draft, or maybe how to build a team, even though you seem to be able to identify talent. It truly sounds to me like you just fell in love with Sewell and that has blinded you to all the other realities of the situation.
We're not going to pass on a QB because of Morgan, and Morgan is not going anywhere. Neither of those things makes any sense. I think what you're trying to say is that even though Sam was poised to have a breakout season, it didn't happen, and that it's Sam's and Gase's fault. It certainly isn't JD's fault.
It seems there's a negative correlation these days between fans and pundits saying a prospect is pro-ready and that prospect being pro-ready.
