The more I watch and read about Wilson the more I have a feeling he will continue to move up and close the gap in the rankings, particularly if TL or Wilson have average showings with much better teams in the playoffs. I kind of like the way Wilson controls the pocket and fires perfect lasers to his receivers. He seems to lead his receivers perfectly and never throws behind them, screwing up the route. Combine will be interesting as hell this year, if they have them. There seems to be is a ton of great WR with the first round, EDGE, CB, RB and TE from what I read. We should come out of the first with two top notch day one starters.
QB's drafted 2nd in the 1st round and in the top 9 since the merger. Added the guy taken 1st for perspective. 2020 - Tua Tagovailoa #5. Joe Burrow #1. 2019 - Daniel Jones #6. Kyler Murray #1. 2018 - Sam Darnold #3. Baker Mayfield #1. 2016 - Carson Wentz #2. Jared Goff #1. 2015 - Marcus Mariota #2. Jameis Winston #1. 2012 - Robert Griffin III #2. Andrew Luck #1. 2011 - Jake Locker #8. Cam Newton #1. 2009 - Mark Sanchez #5. Matthew Stafford #1. 2004 - Philip Rivers #4. Eli Manning #1. 2003 - Byron Leftwich #7. Carson Palmer #1. 2002 - Joey Harrington #3. David Carr #1. 1999 - Donovan McNabb #2. David Couch #1. 1998 - Ryan Leaf #2. Peyton Manning #1. 1995 - Kerry Collins #5. Steve McNair #1. 1994 - Trent Dilfer #6. Heath Shuler #3. 1993 - Rick Mirer #2. Drew Bledsoe #1. 1990 - Andre Ware #7. Jeff George #1. 1987 - Kelly Stouffer #6. Vinny Testaverde #1. 1983 - Todd Blackledge #7. John Elway #1. 1982 - Jim McMahon #5. Art Schlichter #4. 1979 - Phil Simms #7. Jack Thompson #3. 1971 - Archie Manning #2. Jim Plunkett #1. 1970 - Mike Phipps #3. Terry Bradshaw #1. That's the full list between the merger and most of the comparisons seem to be appropriate for this year. How many times in 23 drafts was the 2nd guy taken outright better than the 1st? 3 times in 23 drafts those being Donovan McNabb in 1999, Jim McMahon in 1982 and Phil Simms in 1979. How many times in 23 drafts were both guys busts for their original team meaning both teams over-drafted? 5 times in 20 years with a few years currently outstanding. Note that I generously did not include Archie Manning in the bust category or it would be 6 times. Also, Terry Bradshaw and Archie Manning would likely have busted in a free agent era as they took a long time, 4+ seasons, to get rolling and likely would have been cap casualties. How many times was the #2 guy picked a bust? This is one of the key questions for us. 13 out of 20 drafts the guy picked 2nd was a bust with a few years currently outstanding. How many times was the 2nd QB picked in the top 2 a bust? 4 times out of 6 with Wentz being unknown at the moment. Marcus Mariota, RG III, Ryan Leaf and Rick Mirer got teams to bite on them for heavy value after a QB was already off the board. The success stories are Donovan McNabb and Archie Manning - who again is getting a heavy benefit of the doubt here. Carson Wentz remains to be seen but the numbers clearly do not favor spending a #2 overall pick on a QB after #1 was also a QB.
Thanks for doing the digging to produce this. But it begs a question (or two or three): WHY? Here are the top rated QBs from 1972 and their draft order: 1972 - Errol Morrall - 1956 - #2 overall (Gary Glick, QB Colordo State was #1) 1973 - Roger Staubach - 1964 10th round 1974,75 - Kenny Anderson - 1971 3rd round 1976 - Ken Stabler - 2nd round AFL Draft 1977 - Bob Griese - 1967 #4 overall (Steve Spurrier, QB Florida went #3) 1978,79 - Staubach 1980 - Brian Sipe - 1972 13th round 1981,82 - Kenny Anderson 1983 - Steve Bartkowski - 1975 #1 overall 1984 - Dan Marino - 1983 - #27 - (6th QB taken) - Greatest QB Class in History! 1985 - Ken O'Brien -1983 - #24 - (5th QB taken) 1986 - Tommy Kramer - 1977 - #27 overall 1987 - Joe Montana - 1979 - 3rd round (4th QB taken) 1988 - Boomer Esiason - 1984 - 2nd round 1989 - Joe Montana 1990 - Jim Kelly - 1983 - #14 (3rd QB taken after Elway and Blackledge) 1991-94 - Steve Young - #1 in 1986 Supplemental Draft by Tampa Bay 1995 - Jim Harbaugh - 1987 #26 (4th QB taken) 1996-97 - Steve Young 1998 - Randall Cunningham - 1985 - 2nd round 1999 - Kurt Warner - 1994 Undrafted FA 2000 - Brian Griese - 1998 - 3rd round 2001 - Kurt Warner 2002 - Chad Pennington - 2000 - #18 (1st QB taken) 2003 - Steve McNair - 1995 - #3 overall 2004-6 - Peyton Manning - 1998 - #1 2007 - Tom Brady - 2000 - 6th round 2008 - Phillip Rivers - 2004 - #4 overall 2009 - Drew Brees - 2001 - 2nd round 2010 - Tom Brady 2011-12 - Aaron Rodgers - 2005 - #24 overall (2nd QB taken) 2013 - Nick Foles - 2012 - 3rd round 2014 - Tony Romo - 2003 - Undrafted FA 2015 - Russell Wilson - 2012 - 3rd round 2016 - Matt Ryan - 2008 - #3 overall 2017 - Alex Smith - 2005 - #1 overall 2018 - Drew Brees 2019 - Ryan Tannehill - 2012 - #8 (3rd QB taken) In looking at this it's clear that many - most top rated QBs are NOT the #1 pick or even the #1 QB taken. This list is comprised of QBs from the #1 overall to Undrafted FA. What isn't clear is why the second QB taken in any draft would be a bust, as suggested by Br4d. Is there some sort of curse on 2nd QBs? I can see no reason why the 2nd QB taken in a draft would be a bust, more so than any other QB, so it's not draft order that predicts a bust. Maybe it's that most often the second QB taken in a draft is drafted by a losing team, and winds up - like Darnold did - on a poorly coached team with poor talent. To me, this is the more likely explanation. But that also means that failure is NOT guaranteed or foreordained - if a losing team gets a quality HC and aggressively upgrades its talent, it would increase the chances for success for the "cursed" QB. In support of this theory I would offer Steve Young who was drafted by Tampa Bay in the 1986 supplemental draft of players from the USFL which folded. But he sucked and after 2 years was traded to the 49'ers to back up Montana. He went on to win the top QB award 5 times with SF. The difference? Tampa Bay had lousy talent and coaching and didn't improve it while Young was there, and SF had great coaching and talent. So for those bashing Darnold, you might want to consider this. But the other conclusion I draw is that if Douglas has a shot at a QB that he likes and it's the second QB, he shouldn't pass the chance because of some 2nd QB Taken Curse (I know that's not what you said Br4d, but it was the simplest way I could paraphrase).
How is Archie Manning getting a "heavy benefit of the doubt"? He was a very good, if not great QB. He was cursed to play on a HORRIBLE Saints team.
Take Sewell. The guy is a beast. Then I would trade up to take a QB. Also, grab a RB. Imagine running behind Becton and Sewell??? We would be dominant on offense no matter who is the QB.
Sorry, my bad. I misread and thought it was talking about the draft. I guess I had too much egg nogg. LOL
agree, Sewell is even better than Becton. the 2 of them on the same line will totally transform the Jets offense. Sewell is the best rated offensive lineman in 20 years. Highest rated pass blocker ever per PFF. In 491 pass plays, gave up just 7 pressures... and he’s just 19. 6’6” - 330 lbs and built like a linebacker, moves like a TE. The Jets can’t pass on the next Anthony Munoz. That’s what he’s gonna end up being like.
But did he go up against legit pass-rushers ? I admit, I have no idea though I assume the PFF ranking takes that into account ?
I don’t know how PFF rated and if that was taken into account. i do know his size, strength, athleticism, nastiness, intelligence all show up on film in spades... He’s very much like Becton in his physical gifts, but more polished and fluid. He’s not just holding his own, he is utterly dominating everyone he goes up against and he did it when he was 18... After Lawrence there’s a bunch of question mark qb prospects... Jets fans who so badly want a qb and are dreaming about Wilson #2 are probably the same ones who were saying the Jets would take Jeudy or Lamb last year, Becton was the right pick. Similarly Sewell is pretty much a no brainer pick.
Am I the only person praying for a trade back scenario? Move from #2 to around #8-10 for a 2021 2nd and a 2022 1st. A top WR and top CB will be available in that range and the prospect of having 3 first round picks in 2022 and 3 picks in the 2nd in 2021 is very very appealing to me especially after seeing how well Douglas’ picks are performing so far.
What i take from this is the num 1 QB has outperformed the rest by a wide margin.With a few exceptions.
I don't think these people understand how great Sewell is. If QB wasn't the most important position, Sewell would easily be the #1 pick. Not even close. We have so many picks plus a Darnold trade that we can trade into the top ten and grab either Lance who I want or the BYU QB. I also like Trask at a later pick behind a line of Becton and Sewell. Would also like to get a good young RB to run behind our incredible OL. Sewell makes the entire offense much much much better. No brainer. Best player in the draft by far.
We know how good Sewell is and how important OL is, we just don't see the point in sinking so much premium draft capital into the OL when Sam was the worst QB in the NFL from a clean pocket this season. Clean pockets are great but don't mean much if your QB can't do anything behind them. We could take Sewell and a QB but we'd have to give up too many picks to trade up for the QB. This team has too many holes to be mortgaging early draft picks.
No he isn't a no brainer pick. You're looking at it like a fan or a GM who has either fallen in love with a player or who just drafts by BPA (Mac). One also has to take into consideration need, the cap ramifications, chemistry, etc. Take Sewell, and ask Becton to move to RT and you could upset him and make him want to leave. Keep Becton at LT and ask Sewell to play RT, is he going to be happy getting around $5 million less per season than Becton? In 5 years, the Jets won't be able to keep both anyway. It will tie up too much money under the cap, they'll have Mims and maybe Davis to pay, hopefully a QB to pay in another year, and other players that they will want to retain. There is no glaring need at RT, and the upgrade there wouldn't be as big as it would be by taking a QB, Chase or Waddle, or Pitts. Taking Sewell would absolutely be the wrong move imo.
I understand how great Sewell is. Unlike you, however, I understand that there is no great need at RT, I understand the cap ramifications and problems that drafting Sewell will cause, how the upgrade there will be minimal, and the overall impact on the team's play minimal, compared with adding a better QB, or adding one of Chase or Pitts. We have 9 picks. That isn't "so many," especially with all the holes the Jets have. You just don't understand how to handle the draft. You're thinking with your little head rather than your big one. A team doesn't need two HOF OTs to have a great OL and to protect the QB and open up holes for your RB. Taking Sewell would be overkill and a luxury the Jets simply can't afford with all their other needs. Those factors FAR outweigh how good/great Sewell is.
