The draft definitely has some OT's in it and the Jets have a few extra picks to snipe with and find one. One thing to remember about this draft is that if the jets did not have Becton they would be hard-locked into taking Sewell on the #2. The un-sexy pick last year gave us a huge amount of latitude this coming draft. That's one of the things I really like about Douglas at this point. He makes the picks and trades that set him up to do better down the road.
If...BIG IF, but possible....Fields plays lights-out against OSU and if they win and he does the same against 'Bama/ND....if by some chance OSU wins the National Championship or even if they lose in the semis or finals he plays great....you'll get the fawning press and click-bait articles about why he is a better prospect than Trevor. It'll be 100% BS but it WILL increase the value of the #2 pick.
I agree that they probably won't trade up. I wasn't the one that originally posited the idea. It could happen, however. They could covet Sewell, and we could take Sewell, or we could trade the pick to another team that covets Sewell. They could call our bluff, however, and if we actually took him, then we could be stuck with him. I'd rather just stay put and take the QB we want (if it's Wilson or Fields), or trade down a little if it's Trask or Lance. That's the smartest and safest way to go imo. When you're trying to draft a QB, it's not the time to get cute or greedy.
Over-drafting a QB is an example of getting cute and greedy. History tells us that except in extraordinary drafts the 2nd and 3rd QB's selected high in the draft are unlikely to produce enough value to justify the pick. I'm all-in on picking Trevor Lawrence if we have the opportunity to do so naturally, without trading up. I'm very leery of taking any of the other QB's with the #2 overall. It just doesn't seem like good value to do that.
I'm not saying I'm sold on Wilson and I'm definitely not sold on Fields, but the bolded just ain't true. Wentz (2nd QB taken in his draft... sucks now but engineered a season that led Philly to the SB) Mahomes (star, 2nd QB taken in his draft, Super Bowl winner) Watson (top tier, 3rd QB taken in his draft) Allen (somehow top tier, 3rd QB taken in his draft) And that's just off the top of my head. I wouldn't consider any of those drafts "extraordinary".
Good post. I don't envy JD, either, but presumably, he knew what a mess this roster was, how clueless the Johnsons are, what a bad coach Gase is, and that he'd have a long, steep, uphill battle to achieve success here. I respect and admire him for wanting to be here and his confidence/guts. I don't want him to reach unnecessarily, either, but we all know how QBs do get overdrafted. Being taken that high does put a lot of pressure on the QB, but that's where Douglas perhaps has to look at their mental attributes (strength/toughness, confidence, poise, instincts, decision making, ability to read Ds) more than their physical attributes. A QB with the right mental attributes can perhaps succeed and even thrive in a pressurized situation like that, whereas one with better arm talent, but lesser mental capacity, instincts, etc. would not. In that situation, accuracy and ball placement would also be more important than mobility/athleticism, size, or arm strength imo. I think he could be able to trade down a little if he likes Trask or Lance, but who knows? With the way players are hyped, how some scouts are fooled/excited by Combine workouts or individual workouts or measurables, by the time the draft gets here, Trask and Lance could be considered two of the top three QBs (but I doubt it). The important thing to me is that Douglas gets the QB that we need. He freaked me out this year trading down in the 2nd and I thought we were going to miss out on Mims. He either had a very good idea of whom the other teams were going to take or he got very lucky, or perhaps a little of both. It was great getting the extra pick (or picks? I don't remember) in trading down, but would have been disastrous if another team had taken Mims. That disaster would be exponentially worse if we wound up losing the QB we want and need. It could cause a rift between the new HC and Douglas if another team winds up taking the QB that the HC wanted and that Douglas had agreed to take. He may have to bite the bullet and take Trask or Lance at #2 if that's the QB they decide that they want and need. Better to overdraft him some and get him, than put getting value over getting the QB.
Let's see how good a GM JD really is. Let's say for this that JD wants Fields/Wilson, but his goal is to convince Bengals he wants Sewell. JD goes to Sewells pro day, brings Sowell in for visit, starts public talks with Sam's agent to extend him, etc. JD never goes to visit any QB. Bengals start to panic. Fuck! JD IS a former lineman and just maybe he IS considering taking Sewell #2. Quick....get JD on the phone! This is the games GMs play ALL the time. They throw shade every which way.
I agree that we probably aren't taking Sewell, and I hope that we don't or wouldn't, but if Douglas doesn't like any of the QBs, he could decide that having an elite pair of bookend tackles is the best thing he could do in the circumstances. Being a former OL himself, he could be even more disposed to that than we think. An extra 3rd sounds enticing, but it's not worth it and risk losing the QB they want. It also could create hard feelings between the Bengals and the Jets. They could think that Douglas was just being greedy and trying to job them out of a draft pick needlessly, and they'd be right. It could eliminate a future trade partner, or at least make us have pay more next time. If Douglas doesn't like any of the QBs that high, then #3 is really no different than #2, and he needs to trade down lower than #3 anyway. He's not going to trade down twice, either. That's fan thinking who have been playing that silly draft game where they get more points for trading down a gazillion times or playing Madden.
With regards to the bold, it's both. Becton is going to be the next Munoz or Bryant McKinney and that's plenty good. They don't need Sewell. That's ridiculous overkill and a foolish use of draft capital. There are a lot of other good OTs that will be going in the 1st and 2nd round, and some of them may be very good or exceptional themselves. The Jets could grab one of them with Seattle's pick in the 1st round or with their 2nd round pick, but they don't need to take a RT this year. Fant has played well. With all the other holes the Jets have and the lack of playmakers they have, they don't need to ignore those areas in order to have an all-time great set of bookend OTs. That would be extremely poor judgment on Douglas' part, when he could trade down take a QB, an elite WR prospect in Chase, an impact LB and perhaps Edge in Parsons, or an elite TE prospect in Pitts, and get additional draft capital to boot. While it wouldn't be a fireable offense if Douglas were to draft Sewell, it would be pretty darned close, and would bring into question his competence to complete the rebuild correctly. It would be starting down the same path with OL, that Mac and Idzik took with DL.
Exactly! Excellent point! That's something that a lot of posters on here don't think about. The decisions a GM makes aren't in a vacuum. They either set him up for success, lesser/borderline success, or failure later. That's why I don't believe that taking Sewell is even on his radar. The upgrade at RT would be much less than it would be at other positions, and by not taking one of those other positions or trading down and garnering additional picks, he would be making it harder on himself to fill those positions later. The other thing is too many poster here think with their little head rather than the one that sits on their shoulders. I get it. It's fun to fantasize about having an elite pair of bookend OTs who both go into the HOF. If the Jets were just a RT away from being a true contender, then sure, take Sewell, but they aren't. If they hope to get to being a true contender, then they have to take a hard pass on Sewell, and either draft a QB or trade down.
Yes, agreed and think we're saying the same thing. It won't be an overdraft if they really love one of the QBs' and take him at #2, even if the Kiper's/McShay's of the world have that QB slotted lower. To me it's only an overdraft if they like, not love, one of the QB's and reach at #2 for that player. Personally, unless they're blown away by/love one of the non-TL QBs, I'd look to trade down from #2, amass picks and take a flyer on a QB lower down the draft board if needed. This team is so talent depleted over an above QB (need: OL, CB - multiple, WR, Pass Rusher, LB) that taking more good players than fewer great players is a good way to go. At the height of the Patriots dynasty, outside a dominate QB, they only had a sprinkling of great players throughout and instead targeted good players and tried to amass 2nd round picks to get them.... Sewell is a perfect example. The player is exceptional by all accounts but by taking him at #2 we either are over drafting him due to position on the Jets roster (RT is not a premium position) or just devalued Beckton (having to move him to RT). If we didn't have Beckton, boom, that's our guy as he projects to be dominant for 10yrs at a premium position (LT). This isn't to say OL isn't crucial, trust me I get that, just that LT is a premium position and the Jets have a premium player at that position. RT is important but not a premium position on a team with a right-handed QB. So you find your RT (if that's what you want) lower down in round one or round two/three, who will be good but necessarily have to be great. Then you trade the #2 pick for a treasure trove to a team that needs (and possibly overdrafts) a QB...IMO, no one is trading up for Sewell, the cost would be prohibitive for a tackle as that pick is more valuable to the Jets than anyone would value a tackle...and the Bengals can sit tight knowing that QB's are going 1 and 2 or, if the Jets do actually want Sewell, they likely aren't trading with Cincy to begin with etc...
Spot on. The only thing I disagree with is that no team would be willing to trade up for Sewell. I think they would. A number of teams need an LT. It's one of the most important positions on a team (either #2 or #3 after QB and maybe Edge). Even very good OL have been scarce for most of the last 5 years or so. Great ones have been pretty nonexistent outside of the 4 OTs last year and Quenton Nelson in 2018. Cincy desperately needs an LT. I definitely think teams would trade up for an elite LT like Sewell.
Is Sewell better than Becton ? I haven't seen too many Munoz references. Is he in that class ? Or a bit below, like Jonathan Ogden/Orlando Pace ? Also...he took a year off. That has to devalue his ranking somewhat.
The reason all those teams choose not to get cute and greedy with Mahomes only KC got a pair and traded up and took him at 10 or 12 ot whatever he went at. I bet there are 11 teams thinking bollocks right about now. I hope Mac barely gets any sleep for nightmares.
Bill O'Brien WRECKED the Texans by trading multiple picks to Miami AND had to pay $22 MM a year to keep Tunsil. Sewell or any tackle will cost $25 MM or so for 4 or 5 years !
Not superstars by any means but Bridgewater and Carr ended up being much better players than Bortles too. Allen after Darnold + Mayfield. Tannehill after RG3. Dalton as after Gabbert. @Br4d is right that you don't generally want to take a QB just because you need one or you can end up with Bortles. And that's my fear with Wilson in being such a later riser ala Trubisky. I still like Fields. If we learned anything from Josh Allen it's that as long as a player is coachable, raw skills can be molded. And Fields is 6'3", 230 with 4.5 speed and a cannon of an arm (especially outside the numbers). I've tried to think of a comparison as much as I can and I'm thinking it's the good version of Carson Wentz, not the garbage version this year. Wentz also suffers from holding on to the ball for too long at times but there were so many good things about his game when he was cooking.
A lot of good posts and read through most of them. As others stated JD has his work cutout for him... In my mind, the team needs an infusion of talent ... G (maybe FA), C (although McG has gotten better over the last month), WR, maybe FA), a RB and if herdon has finally gotten his head our of his ass we maybe set at TE... We need and ILB, maybe two OLB and a speed rusher and #1 CB for D and maybe even a Safety if May decides to leave (I hope not). That is a lot of holes to fill.... not to mention what do we do at QB? However, none of it matters if they do not get the next HC pick right. If they fk it up again, we will all be discussing this topic again in two years...
