This goes back to the Johnsons yet again. They did the same thing w Sanchez. Forget sitting & learning from a Vet,earning playing time or methodically building an offense around a QB for success. It’s day one you’re the guy bc we need a draw to sell tickets & a scapegoat when we fail. Abd forget about drafting weapons..our fans hate that anyway.
Excellent points, CC. What we would REALLY need -- and which we will never get -- would be the actual discussions among the teams that had a shot at drafting the 3 QB's in 2017....the GM's, the Asst GM, the College Scouting Directors, the scouts. Seeing what they saw with their asses on the line is alot different than what some guy on ESPN who can be dead wrong and still keeps his job for years says. I also agree that it appears that Ryan Pace locked onto Trubiskey. I think that is why he is being roasted in Chicago -- not so much for making the pick, but because he was so locked in he felt the need to actually move up from #3 to #2 in the draft. Group-think is SO important to ferrett out. Imagine you're a holdover lowly scout on a team that has a new GM with all his friends and former associates. You're considering a player. Your new GM boss and all his new cronies swear by the guy. But you have reservations. You gonna stand up in a room and say "We're making a BIG mistake !!" or are you going to say "Sounds OK, should be a good pick" ??? A scout making $120,000 a year is going to risk it all to disagree with a GM making $4,000,000 a year (or more) along with million-dollar associates ? I don't think so. Pace has to be sick to his stomach. He had a 66% chance to get it right and got it wrong.
But CC, did you see ALL the "experts" backing the Trubiskey selection ? And nobody but nobody is saying that Watson or Mahomes are CLEARLY the best options and light-years better. This is like selecting the most beautiful diamond with your eyes blindfolded and doing it by touch. The same minute variables that you say could have led you to Mahomes (or Watson) -- could very well have steered you WRONG the previous 5 times you used them to select a QB. So how can you possibly have trust in that method, see what I am saying ?
I see what you're saying, but I believe that those who rely on the traits possessed by Mahomes and Watson (and Luck and Peyton and Brady, et. al.) - the innate understanding of the game they display, the leadership, the "Never say die" attitude, coupled with above average arms (at a minimum, and meaning above the NFL average, not the college average), aren't going to be wrong "5 times"...more like they will probably be right 4 out of 5 times and chalk the one miss up to unknowable factors. Now I WILL say that just because one guy thinks he sees all these traits in a QB - like Pace obviously thought he did - doesn't mean that guy really possesses them. Exhibit A: Pace. But if that guy can get others who he trusts to corroborate his opinion, then they should be right most of the time. In KC and Houston, this is what happened. The GM saw these traits in Mahomes and Watson respectively, and then they sought confirmation by their staff. And of course a lot of this flowed out of the in-person meetings they had with the QBs, not just going off stats and tape. I just hope Douglas follows a similar formula.
BTW, CC, ignored in those KC references is the fact that the then-GM was John Dorsey, who was shown the door before Mahmoes ever played a game.
I've only read the 1st article so far. In reading it, I lost a LOT of respect for the so-called experts. It's like they added 2 + 2 and came up with 3. It was mind boggling at the time, and still is, that anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of football could have considered Trubisky the best QB prospect. I had seen Trubisky play, and I saw nothing that made me say that this guy is going to be great. As the article points out, for two years, he couldn't even beat out Marquise Williams who didn't get drafted. He only started one year, and UNC was 8-5 that year. They lost to their arch rival Duke (which is BIG for UNC) and rival NC State the last game of the season, then lost to Stanford in the Sun Bowl. If he was such a great leader and QB, that wouldn't have happened imo. The fact that Dowell Loggains, Mel Kiper (who is never right), and Charlie Casserly all thought that Trubisky was the best QB should have told the Bears that he wasn't. Jordan Palmer who worked with Watson and was a former Bear QB, knew that Watson was a perfect fit for the Bears, that should have meant something to Pace. So many of the experts looked at Mahomes, blew off his amazing arm as if it were nothing, blew off his athleticism and ability to create as if it were nothing, ignored the fact that his father had been a pitcher in the major leagues, and that Mahomes had grown up used to the bright lights and crowds and the environment of professional sports as if that wouldn't/couldn't help him. They were looking at him with the perspective of his being a traditional pocket QB and indeed were using "group think." They were afraid that so many of his big plays were "off script." My memory is hazy, but I'm pretty sure that I remember reading an article about Mahomes that quoted Kingsbury, that he had designed his offense around what Mahomes could do and had given him the permission to change plays and improvise that he hadn't other QBs. I'm no QB guru, but it was glaringly apparent to me what Mahomes could do, how amazing his arm was in terms of accuracy and strength, and being able to complete passes from any angle. This situation should humble the "experts" and make them do some serious reflection, and examining of their biases and perspectives, but I doubt it will. I wouldn't have drafted Trubisky at all. I had forgotten about all the interceptions that Watson had thrown, but that didn't bother me as much as his lack of arm strength, which I didn't think would make him a good QB for a team in the NE, even with his outstanding leadership, will to win, and play in big games, but I believed that he could be a very good QB for a dome team or a team in the south or southwest. All those "experts" have more knowledge of the techniques, and nuts and bolts of the game than I do, but it didn't help them see the reality of the situation.
Confirmation bias is what happens so often: they expect a player to be a certain way, and that's the only thing they see. As you said, "mind boggling".
What do you know that the rest of us don't regarding who made the decision? Any possibility MacCagnan wanted the "FQB" on the field right away? Any idea that Bowles/Bates were trying to save their jobs? There is virtually no evidence that either Johnson ever meddled in such decisions but that line of thought is repeated here constantly.
2 completely different regimes w different GMs as well as Head Coaches? The quarterback position which has essentially become a 3 way pact for success along w HC & Ownership? Sorry.Its the exact same MO & the only common denominator is the Johnsons. If they didnt order it they didnt stop it from happening either
Why would they do either if they have no football knowledge? Has there ever been an instance where it was documented that either Johnson overruled a decision of the "football people?"
I'm going to re-read that article, NCJ, because it really goes into the pros and cons of each guy. But I agree with you: I thought Watson was the safe pick.....Mahomes the wildcard....and Trubiskey the unknown. Physically, he was the best-looking of the bunch....but I was absolutely fearful that he only had 1 year as a starter and couldn't beat out some 3rd or 4th round pick or after-ran when he was a Junior or Sophomore. Not like Burrow not being able to beat out Haskins. I never did like Trubiskey -- only because I didn't see enough of him in 1 year. Had he put up Trevor Lawrence-like Freshman/Sophmore stats, that would be a different thing.
Circumstantial evidence......Mac paid a pretty price to move from #6 to #3 2 months before the draft.
I agree with both of you guys, CC and NCJ. Trubiskey was never on my radar. I wasn't smart enough to see all that about Mahomes but if I were a GM, I would hope I surrounded myself with people smart enough to know those things. Watson I knew beat Alabama in a big game that went back-and-forth but he didn't have the skills that many FQBs have. But he had the intangibles and played for a big time program.
That was his job. Nothing at all implicates either Johnson brother. What gives you the idea that the owners have ever even had input into these decisions?
The Johnson Brothers (esp. Woody) are very aware of public opinion and often bend to it. I gave some examples earlier in this or another thread (Dwayne Robertson, Mangini, Idzik, etc.)
We have differing opinions. The only time we see or hear from these guys is at a draft pick introduction or some such other non-event Have they ever spoken in public without a lexicon of cliches? They're not cruising the sidelines or calling press conferences. They avoid all that.
Colorado, NCJ....this is a recent piece from the CT which follows up the earlier article about the Bears whiffing on Watson. Basically, they had locked onto Trubiskey (GM Pace had)....kept the HC John Fox and other coaches out of the choice...and thus didn't do enough DD on Watson (and maybe Mahomes, though this piece is on Watson. It does appear they checked all the boxes on Mahomes, just didn't favor him). Not sure why the article mentions keeping the higher-ups in the dark....the President and Owner of the team have nothing to contribute on how or when to draft a QB. https://www.chicagotribune.com/spor...0201209-ddczbz4l5fhb3iwe34o6q3xpqy-story.html I think this article is better than the other ones: it actually analyzes and zeros-in on how Ryan Pace locked onto Mitch Trubiskey and avoided Deshaun Watson. What is really ironic is that John Fox and Dave Ragone both favored Watson and got the heave-ho after 1 more year. Pace guarded the choice at #3/#2 like it was the cure for Covid-19. Wow..........
Woods made it clear he wanted Revis here at all costs and also the fiasco with Fitz's 2nd contract, Woody said he wanted him back after it had dragged on for ages then he got his money. Two incidents of Woody getting involved, there might be more. There is quotable evidence for the above and it has been posted on here before but I am on my phone and I'm not trawling lol
But that's why I used the word "documented." Forums such as these thrive on apocryphal stories. You should see what gets repeated as truth over in the politics section; makes Joseph Goebbels look like a schoolboy. You must also keep in mind that most of what we get to see of "what's happening inside" is simply what those inside want us to see and does not necessarily indicate what is really happening. Look at the Gase situation today with the fans being treated like mushrooms - kept in the dark and fed shit. Are we really to believe that Gase is part of the solution?
I think the eruption of anger amongst Jets fans if they hadn't selected a QB in the 'great' QB class of 18 would only be exceeded by the explosion that will come on Black Monday if Gase still has a job. They had to take a QB. No one was sure if Teddy could still play, let alone survive a season.
