This conversation came up in the "Joe Burrow is why..." thread. I think this is a worthy question: What is the Minimum Bar to be considered a Franchise Quarterback? or, to put it another way: Who is the Worst Franchise Quarterback that must still be considered a Franchise Quarterback? Background Information: Top End: There are only 25 pure Quarterbacks in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. I think it's fair to add George Blanda (also PK), and Sammy Baugh and Sid Luckman (also HB) to the list. The other QB/HBs all played in the leather helmet era-- of them, only Baugh and Luckman are remembered as passers. So there are only 28 QBs in the HOF right now. P. Manning, T. Brady, D. Brees, A. Rogers, and Big Ben will likely get in eventually. E. Manning, P. Rivers and S. McNair have an outside chance. Understand, if they all get it, they will make up over 1/4 of all HOF QBs ever. Surely there have been more than 36 Franchise QBs in the history of the NFL. Bottom End: Obviously, bust QBs like Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer, Jamarcus Russell, and Heath Shuler don't make it. Guys most fans have forgotten or have never heard of, like Kyle Orton, Billy Joe Hobert, Ty Detmer, or Gifford Nielson don't cut it, either. Where is the line between a JAG and a FQB? What about the likes of Jake Delhomme, Rex Grossman, Jeff Georges, Vinny Testaverde, Jeff Garcia, Jeff Blake, Tony Banks, Neil Lomax, Jim McMahon, Ron Jaworski, Ken Anderson, Dan Pastorini, Jason Campbell, Brian Sipe, Joe Kapp, Rodney Peete, Chris Chandler, or Jim Everett, etc.? Where do they fit? I want to know who you think is the best QB ever that didn't make the cut as a FQB, and who is the guy we must label as a FQB, even though he gives the title a bad reputation.
Can he keep me in a ball game when there is adversity? Can he will me back into a game by putting together scoring drives when the team is down? Does he have the ability to elevate the team around him? Franchise quarterback is a broad term but as a whole teams are going to have years when their team is more talented and prepared for a Super Bowl run and years when their team is less talented and will float and need a magical Eli Manning style run to get to the big game. It's tough to explain how a quarterback does that sometimes. Sometimes a ball club just straight up buys into one player way more than they buy into another. It's not always able to be qualified but it's an intangible that's real. I think I can live with the middle of the road "franchise quarterbacks," because most teams will have them and have to battle the mid waters of do we keep them or move on. Is he good enough or should we move on? Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, etc. are good examples of these guys. I do not blame the Vikings for sticking with Cousins. He could be much worse. But they usually have a good enough roster that they can cross their fingers and hope they pull an Eli Manning out of their ass. The problem is staying married to the middle tier formula for too long. The best thing the Ravens did was have the sack to move on from their SB quarterback rather than give him another three years to recreate what was likely impossible. The Falcons are a good example of what not to do as they paid Ryan, lost the SB and watched the roster deteriorate because they couldn't afford upgrades anywhere that mattered.
A franchise QB starts at least 10 seasons for the team for which he is a franchise QB. The only Hall of Fame QB not to start 10 seasons with his primary team is Kurt Warner. Edit: oops, forgot the qualifier that this includes injured seasons, without which Roger Staubach and Joe Namath also fall out.
Current NFL starting QBs: Josh Allen (likely) Tua Tagovailoa (promising) Cam Newton (used to be) Sam Darnold (unlikely) Ben Roethlisberger (yes, future HOF) Lamar Jackson (very likely) Baker Mayfield (possibly) Joe Burrow (promising assuming recovery) Philip Rivers (yes, possible HOF) Ryan Tannehill (likely) Deshaun Watson (yes, potential HOF) Gardner Minshew (unlikely) Patrick Mahomes (yes, potential GOAT) Derek Carr (yes) Drew Lock (unlikely) Justin Herbert (promising) Carson Wentz (wtf) Daniel Jones (unlikely but still young) Alex Smith (could have been) Dak Prescott (yes assuming recovery) Aaron Rodgers (yes, future HOF) Nick Foles (no but legendary) Kirk Cousins (bare minimum) Matthew Stafford (yes) Drew Brees (yes, future HOF) Tom Brady (yes, current GOAT) Teddy Bridgewater (could still be) Matt Ryan (yes) Jared Goff (yes) Russell Wilson (yes, future HOF) Kyler Murray (likely) Jimmy Garoppolo (possibly)
To me a key (maybe the key) difference between the lowest level of a franchise QB and a game manager is that the former doesn't have to be put in the best situation for him to succeed in order for him to actually succeed. An FQB has to be able to overcome bad situations with some regularity - whether that is bad matchups, injuries to important players, questionable play calls from the coach, or other things. Of course the top levels of success require other parts of the offense to be at a high enough level, but the FQB needs to be able to take lemons and make lemonade, and not just on an individual play here or there - he needs to be able to do it consistently. This is the key indicator for the Jets - since Ken O'Brien they have only had two QBs who could do that, and both were for a very short time - 1998 Vinny and pre-injury Penny. Darnold has shown very little evidence of being able to do that with any degree of consistency, which is why in my opinion focusing on the lack of weapons and Gase's coaching misses the point.
Has to be durable. Iron man like. Then again Pennington was seemingly made of glass IMO he was a franchise QB. Hard thing to define in words I think but when you see one you know. IMO a franchise QB is a outdated concept in the modern NFL I don't understand why teams continue to chase the unicorn to the detriment of the rest of the team.
The lowest bar I'd say is someone who can crack the top half in passing statistics in most years (and occasionally has a great top 10 or better year) is a franchise qb. I'd even say that if the guy isn't a consistent top 10 passer and is in the prime of his career he's not a franchise QB. Anyone else is just good enough until someone better comes along. This is a passing league right now, you don't win with a guy who's just decent, but consistent.
Be a guy that you can't easily replace. Where you know there's a good possibility that if you replace him in any normal situation there's a good chance you won't actually improve the roster.
I think a franchise QB is a guy worthy of being the focal point of your resources as a GM. So, after a period of time in which the QB in question demonstrates that he is capable of shouldering the load, producing like an All-Pro, and pulling the team to victory by himself in spots, a COMPETENT General Manager will start to orient the both his cap assets and draft assets with the QB in mind first and foremost. Of course there are plenty of incompetent GMs who build like this, but around the wrong QB just because he's young, has physical attributes, superficial production, and/or won a few games as part of a team with other good players. Basically they get the FQB evaluation wrong - in fact I'd argue that the FQB evaluation turns up a false positive more often than a real one because GMs (and media) are so desperate for that stud QB making everyone's job easier and more enjoyable.
great list i would have done similarly, of them the franchise guys for me are including present and past... newton roethlisberger jackson rivers watson mahomes prescott rodgers stafford brees brady ryan wilson matt ryan would be the least impressive of that group for me. stafford right behind him. i give stafford a little leeway because well detroit cant get out of its own way. guys i could see becoming or on their way allen herbert murray i dont see any of the rest of them that have shown the potential. i think murray may have a tough time of it because of his size and that might hurt his longevity. maybe tua or burrow but i just havent seen enough of them yet. really great topic.
