I think it's not unlikely we can get a first or second for him. It just might not be this year, but 2022 or 2023. Would personally jump at a 2023 first since it would give us 6 first rounders over 3 years.
I think we'd be lucky to get a 2nd rounder. Statistically, Sam is a bottom 5 QB, and while he's on a terrible team with terrible coaching, the offense looks no worse under Flacco, who nobody wanted as a starter. The Cards got a 2nd rounder for Rosen, but that was after 1 year of his career, not 3.
Yeah, I have to go with this. The fact is that Darnold has not had a good career, and any notion of him being a top QB is pure speculation at this point. I certainly wouldn't give up a first round pick for him, and to me a second round pick is also a stretch (as you say, when Rosen was traded there was still question of what he actually was - Darnold is better than Rosen, but hasn't given a lot of evidence of a high ceiling after three years).
The offense does look worse to me with Flacco, except when he played a terrible and injured Patriots defense and threw some random deep bombs with all his WR's healthy. You say no worse, which is technically true, since the offense looks terrible every week. I disagree with this because has had bad luck and a terrible head coach and a complete lack of talent around him. Year 2 he had mono, now year 3 there has been a pandemic with no offseason, his WR's have never been healthy until last week without him, and he hasn't had a running game either. Those are all excuses for his lack of production, but they are valid. And I have seen enough on tape to think he can succeed in a good situation, maybe even thrive in it. In a normal situation I would be fine with rolling with Sam in 2021. This year is different because the Jets have been so terrible that they could end up with the #1 pick and a great talent in Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. It will also be good for Sam to get a fresh start elsewhere. I would compare it to the Drew Brees/Philip Rivers situation the Chargers had. Sam will definitely succeed somewhere else, but the Jets will have success too with their new QB.
One thing I will point out which is somewhat optimistic is that all it would take are 2 teams to still view Sam the way they viewed him in 2018, and we could possibly get a good pick by having them bid against each other.
What concerns me about Sam as an NFL QB is that he has significant mechanical and decision-making flaws, and his only special talent is his ability to make off-script throws. In other words, he doesn't have elite arm strength, accuracy, or mobility. And you can't win in today's NFL by relying on off-script throws. So he'd have to fix his flaws, and while he'd have better coaching and teammates, do you really think he's going to fix them after already having 3 years, including offseasons, to do it?
Rosen was cut by the fins, would you trade a number 2 for Mayfield ? He has had success. He had one of the worst coaches in NFL history, new systems etc. No I would not trade a 2 for Mayfield, why would anybody trade anything less than a 4th for Sam. He could just as easily be out of football in 2 yrs as he is as a starter. Last 3 yrs 27th ranked,27th ranked and 32 ranked qb. Imagine if we traded a 2nd rd pick for him.
Mayfield's career stats: 61.4 cmp%, 9198 yds, 64 TD, 42 INT, 86.7 rating Darnold's career stats: 59.7 cmp%, 6934 yds, 39 TD, 34 INT, 78.3 rating Yes, Mayfield has been in a much better situation, but the difference in stats is large enough that Mayfield would net a better return. Darnold has also had trouble staying healthy, and that's another red flag.
true but the talent around them is Night and Day...Mayfield has had OBJ, Landry, Chubb, Hunt, that TE...it’s not even close we have NO ONE in that league....every one of those guys is years better than any one of our guys hard to compare
It's a good question and another reason why I am on board with drafting Lawrence or Fields. I do think Sam can improve that stuff and it will be less visible with talent around him, but it is not a guarantee. He could continue to struggle and never live up to his potential, or he could. Time will tell, but that is a reason I am okay with trading him. It's a good point. There is risk in trading for Sam, but the reward is great, so that is why a late 1st or a 2nd is on the table in my opinion. Not sure what someone would trade for Mayfield. He has truly struggled with talent around him. Sam is not perfect, and has clearly made mistakes that are inexcusable and disappointing, but his future still looks bright to many around the league.
mayfield has been awful to the point where cleveland is now a running team. that team is being carried by the D and run game. it's basically the mark sanchez led jets and mayfield is sanchez
Yep. Getting a first for Sam is probably a pipe dream unless we find a really dumb team that agrees to it. If you're another team why would you trade a first round pick for a QB in Sam that has been a bottom 1-2 QB in the NFL during his 3 years? It would be personnel malpractice.
The only two positive DVOA passing games the Jets have had this season have been with Flacco at QB. Coincidence? Could be, but to say our passing game is worse with him isn't backed up by anything. The stats would say that our passing offense has been better with Flacco.
Man...most of those excuses like no offseason apply to every other QB too. They apply to the rookie QB's who are blowing Sam out of the water despite never having a single full NFL training camp. We have to stop with the excuses.
I would agree, but it is different for Sam. I mention no off-season because he has 4 new offensive lineman, a new #1 WR, a new #2 WR and new running backs since Bell was barely here. So no off-season and no pre-season is pretty important and definitely helped in the offense's ineptitude. Not it's only problem though at all. There are many.
I really do not think it has anything to do with that. Yes, it is harder when your surrounding cast sucks but to me Sam's problems stem from coaching. Sam is overthinking everything which is leading to most of his issues. When you are afraid to make a mistake at QB you are done and that stems from coaching. You will make bad throws you will make bone headed decisions (Just look at Brady this season) what you have to do as QB is keep flinging it and trusting your instincts. Sam has become tentative tucks and runs when he has wide open receiver on a play he made as a rookie. He has some mechanical flaws but he was making up for that with his big potential and creativity in the pocket. Gase has tried to make Sam a game manager and he just not that. You have to take the good and the bad with a QB like Sam until he grows out of the big mistakes. You make him a game manager you just lost all the good and only get the bad with flawed mechanics. A lot of NFL Qb's have been destroyed like this or never get a second chance and end up career back-ups. I wish Sam all the best but his future as a starter in this league depends a coach that will take a chance on him.
This is really well said and a great post. I agree. That has become my main worry about Sam. He doesn't take chances. He is afraid to make mistakes. Just watching Flacco flinging it down the field against the Pats proved those suspicions. Coaching really is the main problem with that. I think that is fixable with a new Head Coach or Offensive Coordinator. You are right that you don't get many chances in this league though. Sam has one chance left and hopefully he ends up in a good situation.
Yes, coaching has a lot to do with this. A good coach would help a QB through the difficulties he's faced, and reinforced his self-confidence, but not Gase, who allows Sam to come off the field and completely ignores him. But in addition to that is the effect of playing behind a shitty OL for three years, with sub-NFL weapons around him. How can any QB maintain his confidence in that situation? Very few, if any. The people here claiming Darnold sucks completely discount the effect of these two major factors. Sure, they say they acknowledge them, but then essentially dismiss them as not important. Here's the reality: Darnold came out of college needing work, especially with his footwork, and of course learning how to read and adjust to NFL defenses, but the Jets did very little, if anything, to help him. To learn how to read defenses you have to have be able to have some time behind the OL after the ball is snapped, and you need someone to talk to you on the sidelines to point out things you missed. And where is Gase and Patton Oswalt? Nowhere near Darnold! And of course the OL is a sieve again, while at this point Darnold makes that worse because of his indecision and lack of confidence. Really, if you wanted to write a book on "How To Ruin A QB", the Jets are the experts you want to talk to. From what I've seen, it's probably too late for Sam to be resurrected at least on the Jets, and certainly under Gase. I hope he winds up in a situation that allows him to prove that he could be a FQB for someone.
