NFL and College Football Betting Thread

Discussion in 'Virtual Vegas' started by Jonathan_Vilma, Sep 12, 2020.

  1. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    Yes but sometimes the most obvious bets become the biggest flop bets I've learned we'll see but you never know, the Bucs blitz a lot so it they over pursue you could see Jones hit the open gap and run for 30+ on one play.
     
  2. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    That Tampa Bay stat is so convincing I almost doubled my bet the other way at +110. But hell, its only a few bucks and it is possible he gets the yards but I like your original point.
     
  3. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    Have the Giants changed their uniforms lately? They remind me if the Giants of the early 90s uniforms I like them a lot.
     
  4. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    Great to see Dion Lewis get involved--Joe Judge is looking like a very solid HC. These guys play.
     
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  5. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    7-3 G-Men!!!! TD Giants!

    I been trying to tell everyone Giants are going to upset TB tonight this was the perfect example of a potential NFL and Vegas trap game.

    I put $20 on Giants ML for $130 in return and was seriously thinking about putting $100 ML Giants for $650 in return but I made myself a promise many of years ago that I won't gamble M-F because that's money I work hard for (M-F) but on Saturday's and Sunday's? Those are my dayoffs and I work hard to be able to gamble on my weekends ha so tonight I just made a little $20 bet to amp me up for this Giants game all in good fun win or lose.

    I'm rooting big time for the Giants to earn their 2nd win of the season while @ the same time kissing any hope of a Trevor Lawrence/Saquon Barkley dynamic duo @ QB/RB, Goodbye!
     
  6. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    They do. I like Judge. On Jones' rushing yards - I stayed away because of the speed of the Buccaneers linebackers (White/David) and I hit the same prop with Wentz yesterday. Rooting for it though.

    I also like Garrett as an OC and playcaller.
     
    #446 Jonathan_Vilma, Nov 2, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2020
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  7. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    As DWC appropriately analyzed, the Jones under was the smart play at +110.
     
  8. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    Am I the only one who has no idea wtf this "pad thai" is? lol
     
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  9. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    Like what pad thai is? Or the commercial? I never understand the commercial for sure.
     
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  10. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    It's a good man a couple years ago I fell in love with betting prop bets but I lost my ass off and I realized I lost way more than I won when compared to hitting a lot of games against the spread. Picking against the spread has always been so much easier for me than picking between prop bets just because there are so many weird scenarios for prop bets that must fall into place in order to win to the point I just completely stopped trying them.

    However. It's not over. If Daniel Jones was ever going to rush for over 25 yards tonight it was going to come during the 2nd half on a big run it two once TBs front 7 gets tired and during the first half NYGs offense is keeping them on the field and you can see TBs defense getting gassed.
     
  11. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    lol--whatever it is what does it have to do with post-it notes or whatever they're advertising---ok--i remember pad thai--how is that gonna get me to buy their product when i don't even know what it is?

    EDIT: JPP got these guys fired up
     
  12. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    yeah man--anything can happen--but good betting figures out expected-value and given the TB qb running data plus the +110 odds, under was the right play. Next time get your butt over here earlier with such stats.
     
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  13. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    Lol ight. This weekend for both Saturday NCAA & Sunday NFL me, you, @Brook! and @Jonathan_Vilma have to put our thinking caps on and decide which teams give us the best shot @ hitting a nice ticket (4 minds are better than 1).
     
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  14. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    If somehow Giants can win tonight
    I think they might win NFC East. Eagles don’t impress me. Cowboys won’t win another game. Redskins don’t have a QB and inconsistent. Giants should have won last week against Eagles as well. They just couldn’t protect the score. They are a young team playing hard.
     
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  15. Brook!

    Brook! Soft Admin...2018 Friendliest Member Award Winner

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    DWC is killing it with his analytics to be honest.
     
  16. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    There was a real good reason why I quit player props many of years ago. Vegas is too accurate with them and they are always nail biters I mean just look @ the over/under 34.5 Daniel Jones pass attemptes ha! @ halftime he's @ 17 and 17x2 = 34 (on pace to be decided by a freaking half a point 1/2) it's so real it's unreal.
     
  17. IDFjet

    IDFjet Well-Known Member

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    He really did on the Jones yardage--even if Jones goes over 26 it was still analytically correct to go with the under at +110.
     
  18. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    @Jonathan_Vilma Daniel Jones with 31 pass attempts with over 6:00 remaining. Should definitely throw another 4x for a late 4th Q cover but I had a feeling heading into this prop bet it'll come down to the very end.

    And speaking of Daniel Jones he's got a lot of Sam Darnold in him. He's an awful decision maker when he's under any type of pressure he simply throws the ball recklessly and looks identical to Sam out there. Taking points off the board with boneheaded decision making and INTs instead of simply throwing the ball away and out of bounds. Which is why both Sam/Jones have similar QB Ratings near the very bottom of the league;

    When I watch both Sam and Jones only one thought really comes to my mind - the game is moving too fast for them and they aren't built to process this type of game speed on an NFL level. Sometimes experience helps with game speed but sometimes it doesn't. Some players just don't have it within their DNA just like in chess. Some players are grand masters in traditional chess but put them in speed/rapid chess and their processing ability isn't able to keep up. It's not easy to think fast and only the great QBs can process the speed of the position @ an elite level. For some? The game never slows down and happy feet become a real thing.

    And omg with some of these calls against the Giants PIs on uncatchable balls Brady is now getting the same treatment he received in NE. The NFL really loves this guy huh.
     
  19. Jonathan_Vilma

    Jonathan_Vilma Well-Known Member

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    All good bub. Darius Slayton saved me. 35 passing attempts now for Mr. Jones.
     
  20. DefenseWinsChampionships

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    Yes he did save you that was a disaster play turned 1st down lol

    @IDFjet that 15 yard run puts him @ 20 and 2:00 left I'm hoping he runs another one for you!
     
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