Well I agree that I'd like to have a true FQB for a change, but I'm not quite ready to say that Darnold can't be that. And I wasn't a big Darnold fan boy in the beginning. I desperately wanted them to take Mahomes and am still bitter about that failure. But Sam has shown flashes of exceptional ability, and while I don't think he'll ever be error-free, I think he has the ability to make some plays that a lot of other QBs can't. I see him similar to Favre in that regard. And I can see where Lawrence might be better, not just from a physical standpoint, but having played 3 full years at a high level of competition. But here are my concerns with taking Lawrence: 1. There's no guarantee that the Jets get the #1 pick. Meanwhile, as everyone jumps on the TL Train, it's not going to help Darnold's already shaky confidence, and if they DON'T get Lawrence they're left with an even more diminished Darnold. You can say that if he's going to be that mentally/emotionally fragile then he definitely isn't a FQB, and there's merit to that, but ALL athletes are only as good as their self-confidence, and all of them can be negatively affected by widespread public criticism and doubt. 2. We'd be starting all over again. Next year would be another wasted year. 3. By keeping the #1 pick to use on Lawrence the Jets "lose" the other assets/picks they'd get by trading it. 4. As a result of #3 above, the talent isn't as good as it could be, thus putting Lawrence at a similar disadvantage to Darnold. 5. Until he's actually fired Gase is still the HC, and I don't care who you get as a QB they'll have major problems playing for the "Genius". From what I've seen - and I admit I haven't seen much of his games and film - I don't see him as good a prospect as I did Mahomes. Maybe I just need to see more, and if he is that good, I would change my POV completely. Having a QB as good as Mahomes is franchise-altering, and that's what I want. But if Lawrence isn't that good, if he's in the category of Wentz and Goff, I don't see them as much better than Darnold if he can be salvaged.
I'd like to address this issue head on because much like the "get rid of Sam for the shiny new thing" sentiment I think this "Darnold is ruined and can't see open receivers" sentiment is also getting a little bit out of control. This is my own worthless casual fan opinion/observation BUT.... We know about that saying that a rising tide lifts all boats. Well the inverse of that is also true. And things are just going to shit everywhere you look with this team including the entire defense, the return game has been awful, skill positions terrible, OL weak at best, awful most of the time, and Bell has been injured a lot leaving our running game to Gore plowing into the line for 2 yards... including on 2nd and 24. Now can Robby Sabo (who I like btw.. not ragging on him) or whatever other expert break down a film in slow motion from a comfortable computer chair and point out where a Jet WR got open and Darnold didn't go to him? Absolutely. But give the kid a break. Things are in full meltdown mode all around him and human eyes can only focus on one problem at a time. Your just simply going to miss a few of these things. I'm sure we could find a few opportunities Pat Mahomes or whoever else missed in super slow motion with 17 rewinds. There are also plenty of times where Darnold puts the ball right in the guys hands and he just doesn't catch it, and there have been plenty of 2nd and 6's or 2nd and 8's where Gase just gives the ball to Gore (again) for no gain, leaving Darnold absolutely no margin for error instead of giving him two tries to pick it up. I would further submit into evidence Flacco's performance this past game. Flacco may not be a Hall of Famer but he's pretty solid. Longtime starter, big arm, won a super bowl... he knows what he's doing. And it was the exact same record playing... drops, protection failures, wasted downs with Gore. Perfectly placed touchdown passes that we just couldn't come up with. So what..... is Flacco "ruined"? No. Flacco knows what he's doing. I would suggest the main problem is that he's working with shit. And the results are predictable. I'm sure you can also break down the tape and find a few times he would have been better off throwing to another guy as well.
Okay. Spend your last dollar on a lottery ticket instead of on 100 copies of your resume. It's worked out great for the shit teams that have done it in the past. Who was the last #1 pick QB, taken by the team that EARNED the #1 pick (not traded for it) to take the franchise that picked them to a Super Bowl Victory? Cam Newton was drafted by a 2-win Panthers team, but that team went 12-4 and 8-8 the two years prior, they were far from a shitshow. Eli was taken #1, but they traded up for him doesn't count. Peyton went to a 3-win Colts team that was 9-7 each of the previous two years, didn't need a rebuild. Aikman was the last guy to legitimately go #1 to a shit team and eventually take them to a Championship. 1989 was the last time this strategy worked--and even there, he was part of one of the most exhaustive rebuilds in NFL history.
The SOS is in the Jets favor. I can easily look at the remaining schedules of each of the teams competing with Jets and find two wins. Can’t even find 1 for Jets. 2-14 will likely get the Jets the number 1 pick, o-16 or 1-15 would damn near guarantee it.
I want a true FQB - HOF potential talent - on the Jets. That said, you're exactly right that you can't just draft one and put him on a shitty team like the Jets and suddenly become playoff bound. There is a greater chance that you'll ruin your "savior" before you sniff the playoffs. Case in Point: Sam Darnold. Now, I'm hoping that Darnold is NOT actually ruined and that he can be salvaged, because then they can continue building around him. But if he is ruined we start all over again. EDITED: to insert "NOT" before actually ruined. Thx NC!
I’m early in my Lawrence eval. I think he’s overhyped but I’m comfortable in saying he’s a better prospect than Darnold. Quiet as kept the untold Sam Darnold story is that the 2018 QB draft class was overrated & the Mac drank the Kool aid. He passed on 2 great QBs in 2017 & traded up BLINDLY to the 3rd pick in 2018 as a result.
That's what concerns me about this hype around Lawrence. I haven't seen enough to say either way. As you were the first (that I know of) here to hype Mahomes, I'll be waiting on your assessment.
There is a talent problem on this team - both sides of the ball. Irrespective of what some posters have postulated regarding the skilled positions being adequate, none, to my recollection, were starters (unless you want to say Perriman was and Mc @ Dev). Other then those two, you have second tier talent period. Now you couple that with this CS, CORVID, injuries and the schedule, you have a perfect dysfunctional storm. That is the NY jets. I like the idea of keep SAM and Drafting L if it is possible but I also like the Idea that SAM can be salvageable. One thing that no one has talk about is SAM's desire to succeed. Lest see how the rest of the year plays out... my hope is we don't need to draft another QB but if we do, keep Sam as a backup (you could do a lot worse). If we do not then trade the pick (assuming its #1) for additional picks and stock the shelves. They have been bear for to long.
He is young, and that is a big plus on his side. I really like Sam, and hope that he does develop whether it's here or elsewhere. I'm not sure what his dad being a plumber has to do with anything. The thing that I think may be working against Sam is that he comes across as too laid back, not fiery enough and not a real leader. Now his age may have something to do with that, and lack of confidence in the system in which he's playing and as a result in himself, could as well. The thing is, you have to look at it from Douglas' perspective. Unless he is totally sold on Sam, there's no way he could pass on Lawrence if he has the #1 pick. If he did and Lawrence went on to become a great QB and Sam never got beyond OK, it would go down in NFL history as one of the worst moves ever. It wouldn't matter how many picks Douglas got for trading down or who he took with those picks. A football team's success begins and ends with the QB position. A great QB can overcome a bad HC. A great HC cannot overcome a bad QB. I can almost guarantee you that if the Jets have the #1 pick, Douglas is going to take Lawrence. As I said earlier, he would have to have complete confidence that Sam can still develop into a great FQB, have balls the size of steel wrecking balls, and have complete confidence that he could get numerous great players with those draft picks, and that would be just to break even and not look like an incompetent idiot.
Sam has shown flashes, but if all he can be is similar to Favre, I'll pass. Favre won quite a few games for the Packers with his arm, but he may have lost them about as many as he won with bonehead decisions and throws. I believe that Lawrence is definitely a better prospect than Sam, and can give the same things that Sam can in terms of throwing on the run and extending plays, but can do more with his arm and legs. I think he's on a level somewhere between Sam's potential and Mahomes potential. That different in talent and potential, can be enough to put us over the top. Your #5 is the key. You're right that if Gase is still here, it won't make too much difference who the QB is. He has to go. With regards to your #1, no there are no guarantees that we'll have the #1 pick,, but if we do Lawrence is sitting there. Douglas would have to completely believe that Sam can still be a great QB (and probably that he thinks Sam is better than Lawrence), have balls the size of steel wrecking balls, and believe that with the bonanza of picks he can get great players, because if Lawrence lives up to his potential and Sam is only ever OK, it would go down as one of the worst moves not only in Jets' history, but NFL history. It would be worse than the Jets passing on Marino, Sapp, and Mahomes. Jets fans would be up in arms, and Douglas would get laughed out of the NFL and never be a GM again. Don't forget also the financial aspect That could be a huge driving factor. Sam's going to be in his 4th year next year. Douglas would have to wait until after next season to decide whether to offer Sam a new, big contract. He'd have Lawrence on the cheap for 5 years. Yes, we'd be starting over again (#2), but there's starting over, and STARTING OVER. We're in a rebuild and for all intents and purposes, will be starting over next year anyway. Regardless of what Douglas' plan is, the bottom line is that there is too little talent on this team, and I'll bet that there aren't more than 10 players on this roster presently that will be here in 2-3 years. Would you rather start over and try to build around a QB you were unsure of, that may never fix his issues, who may always be seeing ghosts, and that you didn't draft, or START OVER with the supposedly best QB prospect in 5-10 years and build around him (especially knowing that you had him cheap for 5 years)? Another factor is that with the Jets having a lot of cap space, the roster could look much better following FA. The Jets could add a WR like Allen Robinson, Chris Godwin, JuJu Smith-Schuster and an OG like Joe Thuney or Forrest Lamp. By that point, Mims could be a rising star, Perine look like a quality backup RB, Clark a starting-caliber OG, and Davis a very good S. You can't lose something you never had. If Lawrence is the real deal, it's 99% certain that he would make the team better than the players taken with those other picks anyway. If Mims develops the rest of the season, Douglas adds one of those FA WRs, the new CS gets Herndon straightened out, and with a better OL, Lawrence wouldn't be at the same disadvantage Sam has been at for 3 years. Don't underestimate, the damage that could have done to Sam's ability. He may have been putting too much pressure on himself, trying too hard to compensate for the lack of talent, and it may not be easy to stop doing that even with better weapons around him, just like his mechanics seem to have gotten worse and he seems to have become somewhat antsy and gunshy do to all the hits he's taken. It may be very difficult for him to unlearn those bad habits, learn to trust those players and the new HC/OC/offensive system, relax and let his talent take over.
This year is Sam's 3rd year. Next year will be his 4th year, and more than likely, he won't have proven anything by then. Douglas could wait until after next season to decide whether to extend Sam, but by that time, Sam could decide that he'd rather play the rest of his career elsewhere. Even though things could be a lot better here next year, they may not be enough better yet for him, or he may just want a change of scenery, or want to play in a smaller market or on the left coast.
If they draft Lawrence and do a great job with their other draft picks so one or two become immediate contributors, the 2021 Jets have a LT, QB, DT, P, Long Snapper, and one or other NFL caliber players. Maybe another if Mims becomes what we want him to. Any FAs that come to the Jets next offseason will be either massively overpaid or completely unwanted by the rest of the league. That's how it works when you are the worst team in the league. Either way, FA additions aren't going to help with the rebuild, because they'll be taking snaps from younger players or they'll have unwarranted cap numbers and won't be around long, or, in most cases--both. Is Lawrence more likely to develop great skills and propel this rag-tag group forward, or is he more likely to develop bad habits and learn to run for his life? Even if he's amazing and never takes one step backwards, how long will it take to get this roster good enough to compete for a championship? 4 or 5 years, minimum? Now, if the Jets trade that pick for a haul, and can pick up 6 or 7 immediate contributors, plus some high picks next year, and can capitalize on those, then in 2023 or 2024, they can trade a haul to somebody for a high pick because they could have 18+ quality young starters and a whole bunch of developmental/backup players. Now they can put young QB in a situation that will put them in immediate contention and who will have a much better chance of developing and progressing properly. The time frame is the same-- number of holes to fill is the same-- but the odds of a favorable long-term outcome are much better behind door number 2.
Great Posts by everyone here especially our OP Contrails who I usually endorse like clock work But NC has a compelling argument that we are moving on from SD...Gase aside he just has not shown enough with a 3 year experience in NFL i.e. Mistakes and Interceptions I used to be 110 per cent sold on SD...sorry not anymore So here are a few questions: Who is the better SEC QB Burrows or Trevor "Fast Times at Ridgemont High" Lawrence? Sam won no Nat Championship played in PAC 10 and is less talented than TL bottom line...start over with a new guy who has not thrown a pick ( maybe one) in College The writing is on the wall for Gase ( I hope) and for Sam ...too bad Of course if Gase is still around next year to RUIN TL and the whole team I am done with this sorry ass place
Door number 2, as you put it, makes sense if the new CS thinks Sam is salvageable and is worth building around. Remember, with Trevor, you get 4 cheap years to build around while Sam's rookie contract is nearing its end. If we land Trevor, FA signings and draft picks can be used to enhance his supporting cast. There's enough ammo to give Trevor a good offense to work with in his second year.
Good post..because it sounds like something JD might do I have little hope for SD proving himself worthy over next 10 games..however...that's the answer JD wants to know to see how he plays his hand going forward
exactly. 1st off drafting lawerence puts us in a bad spot with sam. we'll have to trade him and his value is hurt. lawerence will cost the jets 3 high picks essentially. we would take his 1st overall when we could slide back and get an extra high 2nd plus a 1st or 2nd in 2022 for him. just like the colts did with the jets for sam and they built a great team with the extra picks. those picks could be a stud edge rusher and 2 WRs to go with mims and crowder. so you have to think do you want lawerence or do you want sam plus 2 high pick Wrs and an Edge? I think the answeris obvious. people are crazy to think lawerence is so much better then sam he's worth all that. on top of that he will have no run game and nobody to throw to and possibly a shit coach if we don't fire gase. it'll be sam all over again 2 I agree with you. I watched the film. Tlaw doens't impress me at all. His arm isn't as good as sams. he has all day in clean pockets and wide open WRs. nothing shows he can do what sam has done for us. Tlaw reminds me a lot of baker on film and that's not a good thing. If you remember that year I was very high on sam, lamaar jackson, and josh allen. I was low on baker and luke warm on rosen. I wanted the jets to trade back for jackson. after we traded up I wanted sam and if he was gone allen. Josh allen is an MVP candidate and 4-1 right now, lamaar won an MVP, made a probowl. both made the playoffs. Baker has not been good and rosen is a full on bust. Sam's film looks way better then lawerence from college. 3 As long as gase is here it doens't matter who the QB is. we will suck. I'm hoping JD figures this season is a wash and is already looking for a new coach but waiting until the season ends to fire gase on "black monday" and have a new coach lined up. it's also possible if that's the case, JD lets the new coach decide if he wants sam or not and for now keeps his options open for either scenerio
I disagree that FA additions won't help with the rebuild and that things are more favorable with Sam at QB than with Lawrence. With regards to the FA acquisitions, you evidently must assume that they'll be 29 or 30 already. Some of those potential FA WRs are in the 24-26 range, and there could be some good FA OL in that range as well. In fact, I'm positive that Forrest Lamp is. I think the Jets can be serious contenders by 2023, but that's either if the Jets get Lawrence or if the new HC gets Darnold straightened out immediately. I don't think it would be any longer for Lawrence than Darnold, and may be shorter since Lawrence is a better prospect than Sam, and even if Sam can be salvaged, it's probably going to be a process and not an overnight thing. Of course for the Jets to be serious contenders by then, Mims, Davis and Zuniga have to get and stay healthy and play up to their potential, Douglas has to make the right additions in FA next year, and he has to have great drafts in both 2021 and 2022.
