Ignore this. My brain was backwards. I will leave it up for shaming purposes. Thanks. THM Why would you say this? Have you looked at their schedules? The Bengals are the real competition, with the Broncos maybe playing spoiler. Bad teams that have a reasonable probability of going 3-13 or worse as of today: Falcons 0-5 --They have lost to two currently undefeated teams and they have 3 remaining games against teams on this list, and one against the Vikings, who just missed the cut. Their SOS is going to go way down. Washington 1-4 -- 4 remaining games against teams on this list, and one more against the Eagles. Their SOS is going to go way down. Chargers 1-4 -- 5 more vs list. SOS will go down. Giants 0-5 -- 3 remaining games against teams on this list, and two more against the Eagles. SOS down. Lions 1-3 -- 3 more vs list, 2x Vikings. SOS down. Texans 1-3 -- 3 more vs list. Their other games are going to be tough, and the hardest part of their schedule is right now. They may not have much of a team left by the time they get to the easier opponents. Their SOS will probably stay about the same. Jaguars 1-3 --3 more vs list, 1 vs Vikings. Several games against current division leaders, though, so SOS will balance out and stay about the same. Broncos 1-3 --2 more vs list (Chargers 2x). Their SOS could go up or down and will depend heavily on how the Chiefs and Raiders finish their seasons. Bengals 1-3-1 -- 3 more vs list. Their overall schedule is pretty brutal though. They may only win 1 or 2 more games. Their SOS probably will go up. Jets 0-5 -- 1 more vs list. SOS Will go UP. The Vikings and Eagles have poor records, but they are putting up points and will eventually win more games, particularly since they will play these other teams a lot going forward.
The crickets reply... None of what you posted ensures that Lawrence will do much better, if any, than Darnold. He got "happy feet" when he was under pressure; he neglected to see other options; he over threw and under threw passes because of that pressure and his mechanics broke down...all things that we've seen happen to Darnold. And while LSU has an elite defense, it's not an NFL defense. That said, it doesn't mean he can't learn from all of that and fix those issues, but I doubt he can do that on a team like the Jets with a HC like Gase and talent like Darnold has had to work with. And it may be that Darnold is beyond repair because of all that, and they need to move on from him. If that's the case, Lawrence might be the answer. But the point to my OP was let's pump the brakes a little before we make all these rosy assumptions.
How about when Lawrence carved up the Alabama D in the national title game as a true frosh? It was one of, if not, the best performance by a true freshman QB in natty title history. Also LSU was clearly the favorite last year and it was a rebuilding year for Clemson where they weren't even a guarantee to make the college football playoff. He didn't get that rattled. He just played a once in a generation one year powerhouse team. The outcome was rarely ever in doubt. How about the game before that against Ohio State? He showed how special he is. He played one of the best defenses and ran for 100+ yards in addition to throwing for 260 and 2 TD's. Showed his toughness and surprising speed and athleticism that game. Overall Lawrence's body of work is better at the same stage. He's also bigger, more accurate, faster and more athletic. I'm not saying Darnold doesn't have some intangibles of his own that make him a very good prospect but you have to take Lawrence if he's there at 1. He's about as pro ready as you can get. Winning a natty, playing in another and possibly another this year. 3 in 3 years. Battle tested and proven.
The team with higher SOS in a draft tie breaker gets the lower pick. Just for an example, if the Jets tie with the Giants for the first pick, and the Giants have a worse SOS (lower), they get the first pick.
I don't think anyone is really comparing Lawrence TO Andrew Luck. Its just a fairly strong consensus that he's regarded as the best QB prospect SINCE Andrew Luck came out in 2012 or whatever year it was. Personally I'd stay with Darnold, or at least try to. I'm assuming if the Jets get the #1 pick they could trade it for a haul and personally as a fan I'd prefer the haul. Get some good players and a decent coach around Darnold and give him a legit shot. In my opinion he hasn't had any of that since he got here and to me THAT is what needs to change asap. If the Jets have the #1 pick and like 2 years ago when we had the #3 pick and nobody would trade anything for it? Then things get a little trickier. I can't imagine that would be the case but if it is I'm really not sure what they should do.
Again, you can point to the Alabama game and say it was a great performance, but Darnold had a similar one in the Rose Bowl in his freshman year. But then both dropped off a bit. That tends to happen as teams get to know a player and can make adjustments. And in the OSU game he had some "help" from the zebras. In the LSU game he got rattled, plain and simple. He didn't see "ghosts", but his play deteriorated over the course of the game as he tried too hard to overcome the shortcomings of himself and his team against a superior team. I give him credit for trying and not quitting, but it doesn't change the fact that he regressed under pressure, which is what everyone here is knocking Darnold for. I will say that given his abilities from what I've seen, the odds are that he'll succeed and become somebody's FQB. That said, there is no guarantee of that, and the odds get even longer if he winds up on the Jets, especially if the "offensive genius" is still here, which we have to assume he will be until he's actually fired. And if the Jets didn't already have a very good prospect who has already played 30+ games in the NFL, I agree it would be a no brainer to take Lawrence if they have the chance. But maybe, if they get rid of Gase and get a king's ransom for the right to pick Lawrence, maybe the better choice is to use those picks to surround Darnold with the talent he should've had all along. At this point I haven't decided which is the better choice, but I don't think it's a slam dunk the way many here are saying it is.
exactly....typical Jets...we will win a meaningless game and end up tied with another team for the worst record and then lose the tiebreaker due to strength of schedule...watch that team be the Broncos, who we actually lost to, but head to head is not a draft order tie breaker (which is ridiculous when you are trying to give the worse team help that they use a proxy for that like strength of schedule instead of looking at which team actually won). that will be just the kick in the face we need no joke...if we want the top pick, we NEED to go 0-16
There are reasons to criticize any prospect; I remember hearing plenty of criticisms about Mahomes for that matter. But the fact is Lawrence is a very highly-regarded prospect, and statistically, Sam has been a bottom 10 if not bottom 5 QB. I understand that Sam would be significantly better on a halfway decent team, but going from where he is now to where a lot of people think Lawrence will be is an extremely tall order.
Drafting a QB isn't going to change the fact that our o-line is garbage, our WRs are garbage, our TE's are garbage. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana in their prime would be losers with this team.
I get your point, but don't you find it concerning that when subjected to real pressure - both from the defense and from the stakes of a big game - that he faltered? I'm not saying he crumbled, but he showed he's not Superman which everyone seems to want to anoint him. And NFL defenses are certainly better than the LSU defense. But again, do you need a Superman as QB to win a SB? It probably helps a bit, but it's not a requirement, and Darnold - if he can be resurrected - might well be good enough, especially if they increase the talent with the assets they would get from trading the Lawrence pick. This is why I think it's imperative that they fire Gase NOW! As long as he's the H.C. we can't know what Darnold or the rest of the team is capable of. Of course it may be that Douglas has already decided that he's going to move on from Darnold and so it doesn't matter if Gase stays to finish out the season, but I'd be surprised if Douglas has made up his mind yet.
Taking nothing away from Darnold but Alabama was a much tougher opponent than Penn State. Not close. Also regardless of help from zebras on controversial calls, Lawrence's individual highlight plays with his legs against an outstanding, fast OSU defense were something Darnold can't do. OSU was the favorite in that game I'm pretty sure. As long as the "offensive genius" is still here I don't think any QB succeeds. I'm basing my response on the assumption that the Jets have a new HC next year. Not sure I ever trust the Jets to make the right moves with extra draft picks. I'd much rather take a proven prospect than some of the "cute" draft crap they've done in recent years that hasn't panned out. They need to fix their draft board evaluations and focus more on guys who were big stars in college. They tend to pass on a lot of those guys for more unknown prospects especially in the middle rounds. Passed up on a ton of more talented, proven college guys in recent years. Their talent evaluators/drafters continually miss so blatantly what many other teams see.
I believe that the team is being stripped of talent and morale on a weekly basis. Given the killer strength of schedule and the likely continued deterioration of morale as the season drags on with an obviously untalented lame-duck coach, the Jets will be LUCKY to go 1-15 this year if they lose to Miami this week. I believe that our competitors for Lawrence will win 2 games or more, and we will have an excellent shot at #1 Lawrence. So will Lawrence want to play for the Jets? Well, what about if they sign Joe Brady as a head coach? Brady made Joe Burrow from an also-ran into a superstar at LSU. Lawrence has got to think that Brady can do the same with him at the NFL level. And Brady has to be attracted to the prospect of getting Lawrence to work with as the new head coach of the Jets, with tons of draft picks and free agent money to work with. And the fall-back option will be Fields if somebody beats us out for #1 pick Lawrence. Alternately, if Darnold suddenly catches fire and begins to lift the team to miraculous victories over more talented, better-coached teams with the help of a suddenly healed Mims and Perriman, a resurgent Herndon, etc., we can draft some more offensive and defensive talent to put around Darnold, which is another way we can be successful in the coming years. So aren't there plausible reasons for hope in 2021? Yes, some "if's" here, but not at all improbable "if's."
