Bitcoin hits 42 day high, halving less than 19 days away, 19 days until Bitcoin becomes the scarcest asset the world has ever seen.
Bitcoin halving now 13 days away as PlanB, the creator of stock to flow releases the S2FX which indicates Bitcoin will reach $288,000 between 2020-2024:
Hate to break it to you but all roads lead to Bitcoin, Bitcoin is the end game for the financial system.
The "endgame" for my "recreational" Roth was a 32% gain for the month of April. Actually more because I made a deposit which I backdated to April 1 to simplify the calculations.
If Bitcoin is deflationary, and we're running on the Bitcoin standard, wouldn't everyone hoard their Bitcoin under the belief that it'll be worth more tomorrow than it is today? In which case, how is the economy going to function?
You and I are going to have to raid SOXXX's place for his block chain wallet so we can feed ourselves and our families.
It would be worth more but everything would get cheaper, which would be an incentive to spend. Peoples spending habits aren't going to change, but thats up for debate.
Its impossible, my special keys are in my brain......you will have to read my mind to get ahold of my Bitcoin.
No, it wouldn't be an incentive to spend. Yes, thanks to deflation, things are cheaper today than they were yesterday. But tomorrow, they'll be even cheaper than they are today. So I shouldn't spend today but instead wait for tomorrow. And then tomorrow comes, and I wait for the day after tomorrow. And so on. And while some people's spending habits won't change, other people's will. And even a small number of people refusing to spend or invest will crater the economy.
People buy new phones/tvs/etc when they know that same exact phone will be cheaper in a few months/years. I don't disagree, but I don't know, and no one knows. Hear me out though, if Bitcoin were to take over as the global currency (not saying it will), Bitcoin will become the black hole of finance, governments could try to print more fiat but it will just all go into Bitcoin if Bitcoin is the global currency. They can ban Bitcoin to but unless all countries ban Bitcoin, the countries that ban it will be the ones financially ruined because the rest of the world will be using/wanting Bitcoin not fiat....and if your country has no Bitcoin you will be essentially poor. Also this debt bubble can crater the economy to, so it's not like inflation is good either. Is there a hoarding issue with Bitcoin? Hell yeah....this image is from 2014. It is hoarding but it is also potentially the greatest transfer of wealth the world will ever see, and the ones who bought and held early will be the wealthy in society.
People buy new phones because they're new. Or they're like me and buy the old ones on purpose to save money. But that isn't the same thing as holding off on buying a phone because of the value of the currency itself. And the real issue isn't consumer spending, it's investment. Those phones are built by publicly traded companies that raise revenue by selling shares. But if the currency itself is deflationary, people won't buy those shares because they can get risk-free real returns by holding the currency. Which means the phone manufacturers won't have the capital to make the phones, so no new phones. In small amounts, inflation is one of the driving forces behind economic activity. Taking that a step further, unless Bitcoin is fundamentally changed, it can't be the reserve currency of a successful economy. Where it may have long-term value is as a commodity that acts as a hedge against too much inflation. The two major commodities are real estate and precious metals; maybe Bitcoin can be a third major commodity. Or maybe not. Another issue with Bitcoin is it's only one cryptocurrency. It's the first major one, so it has a first-mover advantage, but that doesn't mean it'll be the most successful one in the end. Finally, you're right that the debt bubble can crater the economy, but odds are it won't be through inflation. A more likely outcome (if we're looking at worst-case scenarios that may never happen) is a situation where future growth is kneecapped by a Fed-supported zombie economy that has to stay propped up to avoid a depression.
Have you looked at the on-chain data of Bitcon, just curious? The raw data is actually interesting it's part of the reason why I'm bullish: The amount of Bitcoin holders is evergrowing the, amount holding certain amounts listed above is evergrowing, also the length of time people are holding Bitcoin just continues to grow. The amount holding 1000+ continues to grow as well:
4 days until Bitcoin halving; Bitcoin surges to $10,000 however in order to set it's first macro higher-high in two years it will need to to break $10.5k
Really good post. I would also add that you have to be a very sophisticated personal investor to have currency and/or commodities as core holdings. I suspect Soxx has Bitcoin as a very large portion of his core holdings. If so, that would be an extremely dangerous position.
I wouldn't say you have to be very sophisticated to hold commodities, I have some as a small part of my assets. The reason they can't be a big part is because they don't provide consistent returns. I hope Soxx doesn't have most of his assets in Bitcoin, that's essentially gambling.
Im pretty overexposed, however im in my 20s so if it goes to 0 ill recuperate my losses. Its gambling if you have no understanding of what Bitcoin is. I understand what Bitcoin is, and either its going to zero or its going to millions. The noise in between doesn't phase me, Bitcoin dropped 60% in March, it didn't move me at all, thats why I came on here to post that Bitcoin crashed. Bitcoin will continue to be volatile as its still in its price discovery, once when it does discover its price (10 trillion dollar marketcap+), I expect the volatility to slow down. The alt-coins on the other hand are essentially gambling, they all lack serious fundamentals and are essentially highly speculative assets in the most volatile market space anyone has ever seen.
