INTERESTING - Inside look at Jets GM Joe Douglas’ new draft grading system

Discussion in 'Draft' started by LF911SC, Apr 7, 2020.

  1. LF911SC

    LF911SC Well-Known Member

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    Inside look at Jets GM Joe Douglas’ new draft grading system and how it could help revamp his roster
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    By MANISH MEHTA
    NEW YORK DAILY NEWS |
    APR 07, 2020 | 7:00 AM

    https://www.nydailynews.com/sports/...0200407-lo6l56dqjnesndljbhvs6wlani-story.html

    He had just landed the job of a lifetime when the thought surely crossed his mind last summer: We all have to speak the same language.

    Jets general manager Joe Douglas has a massive undertaking to re-chart a course for an embattled franchise. He is a careful, patient soul with a singular purpose to pull a wayward outfit back from the margins. He is devoid of glitz and glamour, a slow-and-steady-wins-the-race kind of guy, who knows exactly what is required to reach the NFL mountaintop.

    Douglas’ biggest challenge after taking over for Mike Maccagnan 10 months ago was aligning the organization’s vision. How could he teach the same people how to analyze the same problems in a different way? What could he impart to make a tangible difference?

    Coronavirus restrictions have prompted the NFL to turn the 2020 draft into a virtual experience with team decision-makers selecting players from home. The cancelation of most pro days and workouts will put a premium on the Jets’ year-long evaluations and reveal how successful Douglas was with implementing a new scouting philosophy and grading system.

    Sixteen of the 20 people tasked to evaluate college prospects are carryovers from previous Jets regimes, but they’ve been taught to find solutions in a different way.

    Douglas drew praise from former and current employees and co-workers, who spoke to the Daily News, for his ability to master an adopted draft grading system. He knows it like the back of his hand. Douglas’ charge was teaching his new colleagues to evaluate through a different lens.

    “He knows this scale inside and out,” said one colleague. “He’s really good about placing guys in it. He understands roles and value. He’s a really good evaluator.”

    Imparting his wisdom was pivotal.

    The Cleveland Browns model

    Douglas’ core scouting beliefs stem from the old Cleveland Browns draft model that places a premium on a prospect’s specific value and role for his team’s current offensive/defensive systems.

    While Maccagnan implemented a round-specific scale, Douglas’ grades are based on how a player fits into his coaches’ schemes.

    Embracing a role-specific focus was the biggest adjustment for Jets scouts, who had become accustomed to rate and review players before determining which round should be attached to the evaluation. Douglas’ system does not make any such conclusions. So, they no longer scout a player as a “first-round talent,” for example.

    Douglas, who was introduced to the system 20 years ago as a Ravens scout, laid the groundwork for his scale last summer, making sure that every Jets talent evaluator not only understood the tenets of the new system, but was aligned on how best to approach college coaches/NFL liaisons during scouting trips to maximize the type of information that mattered most for the Jets.

    Besides, there was no real value for an area scout to claim that a cornerback was a “second-round talent” without a firm handle on how the position looked nationwide. Once scouts purged the round mentality from their minds, they could be freed to truly dissect how valuable a player could be in the Jets offense or defense.

    What role would he fill?

    A more streamlined approach

    The Jets’ new grading scale technically maxes out at 8.0, but it’s highly unusual for a prospect to ultimately earn that score. In fact, none of the evaluators who spoke to the News recalled anyone receiving that mark. For all intents and purposes, a 7.0 is the gold star in this scale.

    Here are the five tiers of the grading scale that differentiate whether the prospect is a starter, backup or just a warm body:

    • Day 1 starter
    • Starting-caliber player with limitations (that might or might not be correctable)
    • Role player (aka — spot starter or significant contributor in sub packages)
    • Low-level roster player and/or practice squad
    • Training camp/preseason roster filler (aka — Camp body)
    A 7.0 is reserved for elite Day 1 starters. The rest of the prospects are graded on what scouts believe the player will ultimately become in 2-3 years. It’s essentially a weighted score.

    Most Day 1 prospects earn 6.7s. Although they’re penciled in as Day 1 starters, they still need to make improvements (like strength or technique) to realize their full potential.

    Players that score a 6.1, 6.3, or 6.5 are typically taken in the Top 100 (aka — premium players).

    Any prospect with a 5.8 or above grade is considered draftable. A 5.6 or 5.7 player would fall under the practice squad/training camp body category.

    The numerical grades come with “alerts” or “types” to highlight potential hurdles.

    A “Z” alert, for example, signifies an undersized prospect. So, a “6.7 Z” identifies an undersized starting-caliber talent. A “T” alert means that a player offers special teams value in addition to his offensive/defensive position.

    A “M” type signifies a mental alert if a team has concerns about whether a prospect will be able to grasp nuances of the scheme. Can he learn what is being taught?

    Character, or a "C" alert, plays an important — and sometimes nebulous –— role in the grading scale. A “C” alert could have multiple layers that play a part in the overall grade. Character matters, but there are always exceptions and amendments if the value becomes too great. It’s not as if Douglas only drafts choir boys.

    The new model is much more targeted to your team’s makeup. Douglas has a clear sense of what he’s looking for, so expect the Jets draft board to be around 150 players. Maccagnan’s boards that he kept close to the vest (on his laptop) were anywhere from 300-350.

    Some people felt the large number was simply window dressing, while others rationalized that Maccagnan didn’t have a firm handle of precisely what he wanted.

    His successor will have a more streamlined approach.

    Everyone has a voice

    Douglas has contractual control of the 53-man roster, but he’s hardly an autocrat.

    Part of his gift is making sure everyone is heard during this critical process. He isn’t the lone voice even if there’s a sliding scale.

    Douglas’ and Maccagnan’s systems overlapped in a fundamental way. Every prospectis graded on basic qualities like strength, speed, quickness and balance. Maccagnan asked his scouts to attach pass-fail, checks-minuses or numerical grades (on a 10-point scale) depending on the year. Douglas requires his scouts to give straight letter grades — A through F — for what he calls “core traits” for every prospect.

    Both Maccagnan and Douglas (and virtually every general manager) also ask scouts to give evaluations on position-specific traits. But how they determine the specific qualities differs.

    These “Critical Factors” in Douglas’ model are guidelines that vary by position created in collaboration with the coaches. It’s an inclusive process that helps scouts better understand exactly what coaches prioritize at each position. For example, pass protection is a critical factor for a tackle, but not necessarily a center. How a cornerback plays in zone and man coverage is a critical factor.

    There are no hard and fast rules on what the critical factors are each year. Instead, the system allows for flexibility to better meet the desired goal: Finding the best players to fit your schemes.

    CONTINUED---------------
     
  2. LF911SC

    LF911SC Well-Known Member

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    Collaboration with coaches


    There’s an art to managing egos that not everyone can master. Although Douglas isn’t going to force players on Adam Gase or Gregg Williams, he’s not ceding control of the most important part of his job.

    Douglas was entrusted to build the roster. His task is to create a path that makes the most sense for sustainable success. He’s well-versed in dealing with opinionated coaches (see: John Harbaugh), so don’t expect him to be significantly influenced by Gase or Williams.

    “Joe is very convicted in what he thinks,” said one league source.

    However, there’s nuance that shouldn’t be ignored. Douglas has never subscribed to the my-way-or-the-highway school of thought, according to people who have worked with and for him through the years. So, he will make every effort to supply Gase and Williams with players who possess the skillsets that the coaches say that they want.

    When Gase describes specific attributes that he’s looking for in a wide receiver, for example, Douglas will deliver a player that fits those parameters even if it might not necessarily be the specific guy that Gase wants.

    “You want a player who can do A, B and C?” Douglas might say to Gase. “Well, here’s a guy who can do all those things.”

    Although Douglas’ draft board is continually evolving, the coaches’ evaluations will not prompt a significant move up or down the board.

    Douglas’ most commendable trait is his willingness to learn from those around him. He might have a strong belief in his own evaluations, but he’s amenable to co-workers’ points of view as long as they are precise.

    Douglas doesn’t sit on the fence in his grades. He doesn’t want his talent evaluators to, either. If scouts can justify their grades with clear points, Douglas is willing to review his own evaluation. Dissenting opinions backed by smart evidence are welcomed.

    “Just because he’s the GM, he’s not going to say you’re wrong if he has a different opinion,” said another source. “If you can back it up, he’s going to go back and look at it again and see if maybe he was wrong. He’s a man of few words… but when we start talking players, he’s much different.”

    The conclusions in the Maccagnan and Douglas models also differ. For Maccagnan’s final draft, he wanted scouts to review a player’s strengths and weaknesses and where he fit in the league. (He changed what he wanted from the previous year).

    Douglas is consistent. He isn’t looking for scouts to write an opus. Instead, he wants a 10-12 sentence synopsis highlighting a player’s pros and cons. Scouts are required to add a bottom line section laying out A) the prospect’s specific role for the Jets, B) comparisons to any players on the Jets or around the league and/or C) players that the scout has evaluated in the past.

    Douglas will take care of the rest.

    It’s a thorough, consistent process that has helped Douglas for the better part of two decades. He’s hoping that the people around him now can help by looking at the same picture in a different way.
     
  3. No Fly Zone

    No Fly Zone Well-Known Member

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    I like the process and approach. I trust that he has reviewed the history of scouts he inherited and discounts those that made stupid suggestions / evaluations in the past.

    The one hole that sticks out here is that if he has 150 on the board that covers about 5 rounds of picks so he has no board for rounds 6 or 7 unless someone slips so how are picks in those rounds made? Those rounds are crap shoots anyway but I don't see here his plan for beyond the 150 on his board.
     
    #3 No Fly Zone, Apr 7, 2020
    Last edited: Apr 7, 2020
  4. LongIslandBlitz

    LongIslandBlitz Well-Known Member

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    If your drafting guys based on how they fit with your coaches schemes then what happens when the coaches get fired in a year or two.
     
  5. No Fly Zone

    No Fly Zone Well-Known Member

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    He must have a separate list for UFA to go after once the draft is over. If all 150 "draftable" are gone by rounds 6/7 does he trade those picks for future picks or draft players he deemed undraftable?
     
  6. FrontOfficeFanatic

    FrontOfficeFanatic Well-Known Member

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    Interesting read, thanks for posting.

    A couple of observations:

    I find it interesting to this day how many holdovers in our scouting dept. that Joe D. kept around from MM administration. I wonder if this is something that will filter out over time or if he was satisfied with the scouts.

    Scouts matter, if a scout tells the higher ups that a lineman moves well in a zone blocking scheme...you have to hope that scout knows what "moving well" looks like and knows how to compare to other prospects. That one statement is either true or false.

    Also, to second what @LongIslandBlitz picked up on, Joe D seems to emphasize scheme fit. I also had a concern with turnover--what happens if Gase leaves this year....also that would mean Greg Williams might go to. This makes it even more painful to have Gase as HC in my opinion--if he's not the right guy.

    Overall, this is the most comfortable I have felt about our front office in a very long time.
     
  7. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    Gase doesn't have a bad scheme, its the play-calling you sometimes hate.
     
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  8. FJF

    FJF 2018 MVP Joe Namath Award Winner

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    We know the answer to this , we’ve been living it forever
     
  9. chandler

    chandler Well-Known Member

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    agreed, this is the closest we've been to having a team identity and drafting aligned with that identity

    to those saying what happens if the coach is fired, i think the answer is JD would be hiring coaches who have schemes aligned, or roughly aligned, with what JD thinks a football team should look like

    might be out of left field a bit, but for those who watching cooking shows, there are some with the contestant is given a complete mishmash of ingredients. That's what Mac did. Individually there might be nothing wrong with any ingredient, but the result can still be putrid

    In contrast, even if the ingredients are more humble (e.g., an egg) it can be great if there's harmony with the other ingredients. JD is trying to provide pieces that should work together

    Or so I hope...
     
  10. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    How can you say that a scheme that’s produced bottom 5 production the last 4 seasons isn’t a bad one and that the issue is sometimes play calling?

    I like Douglas’s approach but if he drafts for scheme fit, that’s counterproductive because the scheme has failed 90% of the time. The only part that keeps me hopeful is the part where Manish claims Douglas will take attributes Gase wants and draft his own guy who has those traits, not the guy Gase necessarily wants. That could be the difference between Ruggs and Lamb.
     
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  11. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    Gase has had injury plagued rosters for the majority of the time and never had a QB as talented as Darnold. Players get schemed open, and there is some creativity ... look at the ways he used Crowder for example. His playcalling has always been inconsistent. But the scheme isn't bad. You can have a good scheme, have injured plague rosters that lead to conservative play calling which correlates to bad #s
     
  12. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    “The Cleveland Browns model”

    boy does that inspire confidence :(
     
  13. Jake

    Jake Well-Known Member

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    Maccagnans model was target 25 year olds that can be signed as UDFA later. Christ he was awful.

    Atleast Douglas has been around successful organizations as an executive.
     
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  14. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    So you’re saying he’s the unluckiest coach ever? Since the two years of having a HOF QB and an elite WR in his prime...

    2019: 31st in points, 32nd in yards
    2018: 26th in points, 31st in yards
    2017: 28th in points, 25th in yards
    2016: 17th in points, 24th in yards
    2015: 23rd in points, 21st in yards

    That’s an average of 25th in points and 27th in yards over 5 seasons. So for 5 seasons he’s been stuck with an injury plagued roster? That’s some serious shit luck. I look at his career, and most people look at his career, like a guy who has absolutely no clue what to do unless it’s right in his comfort zone and his comfort zone is in the super conservative range. So in that sense I agree. The problem is he’s too stubborn and/or dumb to adjust. No offense but being able to get a slot receiver open 4 yards from the LOS is not the work of a mastermind.

    Now if we have a full complement of offensive weapons including Lamb or Jeudy, I’ll have some confidence. For some reason I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt and I think relying on Robby Anderson to be your do-it-all guy probably isn’t ideal. Bell, Herndon, Lamb or Jeudy, Perriman, Crowder, Darnold. That’s not a bottom-third offense if you’re even a halfway decent coach.
     
  15. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    the plays
    Wow you don’t know fucking anything about the game of football.

    say what you want about Gase’s scheme, but it is absolutely not a conservative one.

    hell thats his issue, maybe he should get a little more conservative
     
  16. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    Yea a scheme that ignores the deep ball and relies on players making plays after the catch either at or behind the line of scrimmage isn’t conservative. Go watch the Broncos. They had elite talent at WR. DT turned chicken shit into chicken salad. Do you think it’s a coincidence that since Gase hasn’t had an elite receiver, he hasnt coached a competent offense?

    Do you know what conservative means? That doesn’t mean he throws the ball more than he runs it. Doing that makes him dumb, not conservative. See: Bengals game.
     
  17. 101GangGreen101

    101GangGreen101 2018 Thread of the Year Award Winner

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    Interesting enough, the one in bold was the only one where his skill position players and QB were healthy for the majority of the season and they were midway in points.

    Perhaps check out the games played by their key players in those other seasons. When you got shit on offense, you aren't going to be in the top 1/2 of the league in offense, more than likely you will go conservative. Gase had to scale things back in terms of play-calling, but his scheme isn't conservative in my opinion if the right pieces are available.

    If our key players stay healthy we'll see where they are in terms of #s. You can name all of those skill players but if the line is shit it won't make much of a difference when the QB his on his ass.
     
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  18. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    the “scheme” does not ignore the deep ball. Wowww

    Do you know what a “scheme” is? Maybe we need to start with the basics
     
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  19. BroadwayAaron

    BroadwayAaron Well-Known Member

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    At some point you’re going to provide something worthwhile rather than tell people you disagree with they don’t know what they are talking about. Please educate me on the offensive system that hasn’t change in 7 seasons that is well-documented all across the Internet for anyone to read.
     
  20. BrowningNagle

    BrowningNagle Well-Known Member

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    I’m not here to teach you about the game. It’s crazy to me, you spend a lot of your life on this website. Presumably a lot of money on gear or tickets and you don’t even pay attention when they play

    Do you see how the offense is spread out across the field? A conservative scheme would not do that
     

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