High cap number? Mosley makes over double that, its a cap number equal to his value. Even hurt its still a good price when you consider top price for linebackers. He is worth a 4th or 5th. Cap number for him is fine. The injury is the only worry. But that 6.5 that could be half of signing Scherfs plus a 4th or 5th. Yeah we would have to bring Hewitt back so that take part of it but I doubt much. I can see the side of drop off and having to replace him. But Williamsons cap figure if fine.
Value in the NFL, like many other sports, is more logarithmic than linear. An average player is worth something like (1 player value unit). A good player is worth 4 or 5 times (conservatively) what an average player is worth. A star player is worth 5 or 10 times (conservatively) what a good player is worth. This is in a vacuum with no other factors taken into account. Ok, now add in age, which is essentially (expected longevity/growth potential/possibility of decline). Add in salary and cap hit, which is essentially (other opportunities forgone). Add in team value, which is essentially (knowledge of the system/team knowledge of how the player fits/morale in the clubhouse/fan attachments). The first factor, which is player value is the most important, however each of the other factors, age, salary/cap hit/team value then modifies that first factor based on any number of circumstances that may be present: e.g new system, new coach, injuries, cap problems, etc. This is more true in trade value than in salary. Each team has something like $180M in cap space to allocate each year but they have only 1 premium pick, 2 fairly high draft picks, 2 mid-round draft picks and 2 low draft picks with which to operate. Giving Williamson 3% of the cap is not a huge deal although he probably is more worth like 1.5% based on his player value. Giving Williamson (effectively) like 3% of expected future value in the form of a 6th or 7th round pick is probably a bit of a stretch given that he is in his prime right now and likely to decline in a couple of years. However it's not a crazy idea if a team has a real hole at ILB and he would fill it for them. It's probably dependent on whether the team acquiring him is just a couple of players away from being where they need to be next season to contend seriously. The Jets made this type of trade from the other side repeatedly between 2007 and 2011, although Mike Tannenbaum was a high roller and he only wanted premium names attached to more value on the draft picks leaving town. If you look at the Jets specifically you realize very quickly that the results we've gotten over the years make the argument that you should *never* spend excessively on an average or good player and even elite players can cause problems down the road. Avery Williamson is a decent player. He fits very well in the system. He got hurt this year and by the end of the year we are talking about him as a trade asset because Gregg Williams and the Jets staff coached up below replacement value players to about where Williamson resides in the decent to above average category. The guy who preceded Williamson for the Jets was DeMario Davis, who was a below replacement level player at times and a decent to above average player at others. Williamson, Davis and the guys the Jets found this year are part of a huge pool of talent that if given the right coaching can get the job done if not a lot more than that. You should almost never trade a pick that has the potential to be a great player for a guy who is clearly an average to above average player. The only exception to that rule is when you are so close and that one position is going to hurt you all year long if you don't find an average player to fill it. Then the predictability of the guy you are trading your 6th or 7th round pick for makes some sense (until he gets injured in camp and you are f*cked all over again because you traded for this guy instead of bringing in a half dozen UDFA's to fight for the position). The same is true for free agency on a greater scale. The impact on future value for the team is not hit due to loss of a draft pick. It's hit by the loss of the other opportunities that cap space would have represented and all the other decisions that you made based on tying up so many resources in one basket. There's even an argument that signing your own players to significantly above player value deals hurts the team. Joe Flacco's contract killed the Ravens. Russell Wilson's deal has downgraded the Seahawks from division winners to wildcard teams. Darrelle Revis deal with the Jets was clearly part of the cap problems they experienced from 2010-2013, a period in which they went from a good team to an also-ran - this happened before John Idzik's first draft BTW.
About that OL "flawed logic" argument... San Francisco is going to the Super Bowl behind RB Raheem Mostert who shredded Green Bay by rushing for 220 yards. . 220 fucking yards. Raheem Mostert was on the New York Jets practice squad in 2016. Offensive line: maybe not the be all or the end all in building an offense. But the flashy "lights, camera, action!" offenses still call for a QB to have time to get the ball to his playmakers and (if need be) go beyond first reads while going through his progressions. Got an OL that can spring a journeyman RB for 220 rushing yards in a Conference Championship game no less? . All the better. First thing Jimmy Johnson mentioned post-game: SF's offensive physicality on the LOS...and I wouldn't call Jimmy Johnson emphasizing SF's OL physicality as "flawed logic." But what the fuck do I know. Adios.
I’d like to mention though also, the Niners emphasizes speed from their backs. Mostert, Brieda, Coleman and evening McKinnon were all speed demons from the RB spot. Their OL has been stellar though all year.
I think it will be Cee Dee Lamb. I hope the Jets are prepared and have Johnny Lamb Jones announce the pick. If not Lamb then Jeudy but I think they are going wide receiver. I think they will be very active in free agency and might make a few trades when it comes to the OL. Douglas gets a pass on Kalil- Alex Lewis shows me he has an eye for O-line talent. I think Douglas's background in scouting and the OL will have him getting a gem in the second and third rounds- with that being the plan.
He died last year - that would be quite the spectacle if he's there to announce the pick....lol. That being said I think you're probably right. Lamb or Jeudy UNLESS the Jets were to sign a guy like Amari Cooper. Then they probably hit another key position in the first round - the WR class is deep. They may be able to grab a guy like Pittman at the top of the third round to pair with Cooper in that scenerio....
If you look at the 49ers drafts in the last 5 or so years, they did draft a OL/G/T high in the draft but only in few drafts. What s pretty amazing is that many of those 49ers’ draft picks are with the 49ers if not still playing with a NFL team. They also made couple of key and immediate impacted trades The point is here, we know we need a OL and WR and who goes in what order in my opinion is really irrelevant. More importantly the Jets have to land and hit solid with most if not all of their draft selections, which we know has been pretty pitiful the last 10 years. I am looking at their five picks to be key picks, that will make some impact. Can we finally get a good draft?
Did you read today's NY Post? There was an article on Pittman. I don't think it is a given Pittman makes it out of the first round. He is ranked the 5th best receiver before the combine and he put up some great stats this year. If he has a great combine and the Chiefs win the SB he would be a fit in the first to pair with Mahomes. If not I think he goes early in the second- like JuJu Smith Schuster. Don't anyone fall in love with Pittman because honestly- the only time he will be there is at pick 11 and you can't select him there- it is too much of a reach. If he is ranked 5 now, a good workout and combine and he could move up to 3 behind Jeudy and Lamb. If he gets to number 3 receiver I don't think he is even there when the Jets pick in round 2. If he is there in round 2 the Jets had better jump.
I am sad to hear that- may he rest in peace. If the Jets select Cee Dee Lamb I hope they go the obvious route and have Mallory Lewis and famed puppet Lamb Chop announce the pick. If not Harrison Ford who can say "In the Fugitive I was on the lamb, with the 11th pick the Jets select Cee Dee Lamb",
I don't believe for a minute that Pittman is one of the top 5 WRs or that he will go in the 1st round. That is unless some of the scouts and GMs have lost their minds. In his college career, following are his stats. 2016 - 6 receptions, 82 yards, O TDs 2017 - 23 receptions, 404 yards, 2 TDs 2018 - 41 receptions, 758 yards, 6 TDs 2019 - 101 receptions, 1,275 yards, 11 TDs He basically blew up his Sr. year, but otherwise his stats are less than pedestrian. I'll bet I could find at least 10 WRs maybe 20 who have better stats. Yes, one can say that he learned and progressed, but I don't think his production warrants a 1st round pick, especially as high as the top 20.
The senior bowl has started out great for the Jets with both Herbert & Love starting off looking great and garnering a lot of buzz. Obviously the two of them going top 10 along with Burrows & Tua would be fantastic for the Jets. Even if one of them are available trade down options should exist.
Pittman is going to be a stud. Don't forget that as a junior he was getting the ball from a true freshman quarterback that forewent his senior year in High School to graduate early and join USC. His stats are not a good reflection on the type of player he's going to be. I don't think he will run well enough to shoot up the boards but all reports are that teams are going to love this kid from an interview standpoint. A strong foundation at home, NFL pedigree from his father and he's coming from a program that churns out NFL receivers.
I know that stats aren't the whole picture or determining factor. I didn't know that his father played in the NFL or that as a junior his QB was a true freshman. That makes a difference. The fact that his father played in the NFL is definitely a positive, and should make him more NFL-ready. He could definitely develop into a stud. Perhaps NFL teams are desperate enough that they'll use a first round pick on him. As far as the program goes, they've had so much turnover in coaching staffs, HCs, etc., that I don't think one can use that as a positive. I like him and think he has a lot of potential, I just don't see him as even a 1st round pick, much less a high first round pick. That's what I was responding to.
I didn't say he would be a high first round pick- I said a good combine might get him to number 3 and a team like the Chiefs- based on all the other attributes might grab him. If they don't he is going in the second- he is not falling to the 3rd. This is precisely why I would like to see the Jets trade down. Get an extra 2nd and grab Pittman with it.
I haven't seen him in the top 5 outside of that one you linked. Most people's top 5 are Lamb, Jeudy, Shenault, Higgins, and Jefferson at this point. Ainyuk and a few others are also generally rated higher. I like him more than some of the 6-10 rated, but he's not top 5. Oh and Ruggs and Reagor are both rated higher. Ruggs is top 5 on some as well.
This is without the "Daniel Jones/Patrick Mahomes" factor- as we progress another prospect will emerge and one team will fall in love with him. They were good picks for both teams but go look back- no mock drafts had them going in the top 10. This always happens and allows great players to fall. Based on this years draft the Jets have the right pick at 11 to trade with a team who wants to draft the under the radar guy they love. Look at Alex Lewis- Joe Douglas knows how to evaluate line talent- I think the Jets can get a great OL with pick 20-25. If they trade down and pick up an extra second rounder I am confident Douglas can find another high level OL talent with that allowing him to also draft Pittman.
Unless JD works a trade down perhaps.....but I used Pittman as an example in my scenario. The draft is loaded with WRs....no excuses for the Jets to come up empty handed and I am not counting their annual 3rd day swing and misses ….
