well its only the NAM--> but its a step in the right direction as it shows the LOW more South and colder we shall see what the other models say tonight
the main reason the predictions will be too low by most is because of the "mixing" issues...heres what I see....I see a mixing issue after about 90% of the hardest stuff falls. This is the typical snowstorm followed by some sleet,...so when you go to shovel, on the surface is ice and then all packed snow under it. The moral of the story is believe the high numbers....and most of those numbers will be hit before 11pm SATURDAY night. Again...lion in lamb out. Lion precip falls as snow...lamb precip sleet. Close to if not a foot of snow...then sleet.
high midlevel temps...high uppers....rain. high midlevel temps low uppers sleet. low midlevel temps low uppers snow Temps mean nothing on the surface...that's why you see temps in the 40s in the fall and spring and snow flurries. What will happen with t his storm is at is it gets closer, warm air will rush north just ahead of the low...how far? Then the storm passes east...and boom...the cold air comes in the backdoor in a HUGE way. I think most of the snow will be on the ground before sleet enters the pic north of I80. Sleet will arrive after most of the precip is on the ground. Then the storm passes and leftover stuff falls as snow.. back to snow...and temps DROP....BIG TIME. Why do the temps drop? COUNTER CLOCK WISE ROTATION of the storm....back door.
An atta boy from jwayne talking weather is the equivalent of tiger saying nice drive as you walk off the tee box
So last night many of the models trended South but the Euro was very warm n North,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I hate to think differently then you Fjay and the Big Guy but I am real curious to see the scenarios the models spit out today but man AS OF right now I can't help but feel this is initially heavy snow for many and then Rain along the coast and a real bad ice storm ,especially by me and maybe even by you also Fjay , am I way off base here ? I mean the Nam is almost in its wheelhouse and it is hinting at a real bad ice storm for many and it is not exactly the only model saying this, lets see what todays model runs bring. You guys know I want snow but I'm really on the fence here = Thoughts ?
Yep looks like a heavy dump for many right off the bat but ,,,,,,,,,I will be cranking my Generator shortly .
I know we've been doing this for a while, and I should know where everyone is, but when you talk about area specifics, like CBG, when you say "Yep looks like a heavy dump for many right off the bat", can you say where you mean? It would help me in a big picture kinda way. Like, "Yep looks like a heavy dump for many In N. NJ right off the bat" Thanks!
At last check for me Bergen County (Fair Lawn, NJ) they say snow starts late Saturday afternoon around 4 and continues to around midnight before changing over to rain. Rain will continue until about 10 Sunday morning. It says 3-5 inches of snow expected.
Fred keep in mind that even though I post here I am very raw at this and to be honest there is SO MUCH science with this that I don't understand . That said IMO this could still all change as the storm track is not written in stone and this is a very complicated system ( the track has a lot to do with what will happen ) and it could still be Rain or Ice or Snow for many look what happened in November . As of right now I think anyone NORTH and West of NYC could get a good dump to begin with ( again this could change depending on the track and what really is going to happen but just looking at the overnight models and not seeing todays guidance = I think anyone North of NYC could get heavy Snow as soon as it begins,,,,,I could be wrong won't be the first time lol --->anyone else thoughts ?
This is what I wrote for my guys who live on Long Island. North and West is gonna get clobbered, especially upstate and Vermont.. I actually put all my plans on hold this weekend to go skiing it looks so good. I hope I don't look dumb for sending this out. LOL Here’s how I see it shaping up. Saturday sometime in the evening, it’s going to start snowing, between 5 and 8PM. Accumulations of probably 3 or so inches. Overnight it will switch to sleet and possible freezing rain. It depends how far south the storm goes and how much warm moist air it brings up. It’s cold here, and that’s why we will initially get snow when the storm hits the cold air up here, but this will change over to all rain, on Sunday. The backside of the storm will bring some really cold air, which could give us another blast of snow Sunday night. Total snow 3-6”, but it’s the ice we gotta watch out for. It will be over 40 on Wednesday, so it’s a short lived cold snap. Shovel earlier rather than later, because it’s not going to be easy to get it up once it freezes.
let me add that I am NOT saying the city cannot get snow or Ice out of this it could still happen it all depends on the track of the storm
I don't think its dumb at all , it might be accurate but if nothing else it is cautious and I think everyone should be with a storm like this on our doorstep,,,,,I would rather we are wrong better safe than sorry just my opinion
HA... as long as he's here before 3pm kickoff . He works for JetBlue, so he's just waiting last minute to hop on a plane (as long as there's no earlier cancellations) I already warned him it's not going to be fishing weather on monday either
