It would be nice if tonights models and morning models start leaning towards the UKIE and give it some support and then they all begin to STAY the course with zero or minimal flip flopping , lets see what happens .
Waiting on the gfs now. Really need a shift south. Last few runs had us out of the game with the big snows starting around Albany
Nam looked real good,,,,,waiting on the Ukie but as I said earlier today there was and still is lots of time PS I just watched Bernie Raynos video and he says this thing will shift South n East and if you want snow thats what you hope for. PS An ice storm install NOT off the table still time
Ukie looks good ,,,still time for things to change either way and NOTHING /rain/ice/ or snow is off the table as I type I really would like to get to Thursday and see where things are at,,,,,,ps caped crusader pick up the green phone = call for Dr Jay
Euro MUCH improved,,,,,all models shifted in the right direction tonight but still time for more changes it is not Thursday yet,,,,,,,
" as of now " = Friday looks to be not a BIG deal , an inch maybe 2 -->but the weekend still could be anything and if it is ICE that will be a scary situation. Need the low to track farther South and East to keep us in the snow conversation if the low tracks more west = ugh---> ice for many. Still a lot of time for changes , me and Fjay are hoping for this thing to move more South and East
Gfs not our friend again. Euro seems to be a bit further south and east so that helps. Still fear this is going to be more liquid than snow or snow turning to rain and and washing away. Either way, Saturday night-Sunday is going to be a mess.
Fjay we need this thing to shift have you seen the Ukie or the latest Euro ? Euro shows an EPIC ICE STORM .
Yea. It’s a bit further south than the gfs though. Barely but it is. Not good. Still time though. Temps after the storm clears crash hard. Below 0 temps. If it’s an ice storm there can be some huge problems with power outages and brutal cold.
problem is the southern branch. Where the models wanted to merge the southern upper level Low earlier now it spreads it out....and you don't get the double barrel low with both branches Still way to early....and precip types will be a problem unless the southern branch gets it act together too. That setup lets the low leak north too early....we want a more benchmark track. There is enough cold air to the north....this track isn't tapping it fully. All the players come ashore on Thursday night...and will probably see better agreement and better forecasting starting with the Thursday night 930 pm NAM then the 1030 pm GFS and of course the 1AM (FRIDAY MORNING) EURO
Locals calling for a mix this weekend. Not much to get excited about. I was hoping this thing would turn into a Miller-B so we would get snow.
Cman---many locals are down playing this one and I am telling you its not wise. Until this gets on land tomorrow nite and the models hopefully get a better handle on this no one knows for certain what will happen. This can indeed be not much but it could still easily be a snowstorm or as a few models are showing = an Epic Ice Storm in many places,,,,one of the weather geeks can chime in but I agree that too many people are down playing this ---its a mistake
Yea, hold your tickets cman. This is not locked in yet. The euro may come in with a more south and east track .
There is going to be a lot of snow before the switch for most of us I believe. there’s going to be ice and rain and sleet and then a switch back to snow. Temps absolutely crash on the way out so a flash freeze Sunday nite will keep the driving tough all day Sunday into Monday.. cman , I think your good for 6-10 Saturday afternoon into Sunday.
Yep Fjay--------and now we are getting close to this system being over land so the intel SHOUD get better. If this system is more South and East and it very easily could be then every weather forecast we watched this morning will be way off. Heck a local guy just said that Sunday it is going to be 45 in Tarrytown and 47 in NYC and I would bet him A LOT of money that aint the case, as many models don't even have NYC hitting 37 lol. I personally still think there is a lot on the table for everyone nothing written in stone yet. Paging Dr Jay
