Like all numbers, they need to be taken with some level of context. While draft depth typically varies year by year, the numbers I'm drawing from is over a 10 year period, which should even that out somewhat. At this stage, I'm a bit hesitant to include 2015-2018, since evaluating how good a player is in that range gets a lot hairier. 2014 was a bit iffy just because of how recent it is. I could maaaybe include 2015, as a lot of the players are nearing the end of their first contract. The Mac comparisons all have disclaimers on them basically, since they rely on players panning out over the next few years. Draft depth is definitely something to consider, and if 2015-2018 was surprisingly deep overall, Mac's drafting results become inflated, and if it was shallow, he's better at drafting than his numbers may suggest. I'll have to go back for each of those GMs and see whether they were hitting in deeper or shallower drafts! Gettleman I listed as average to above average rather than good. In those two years at least, he drafted well enough to bring in more starters than expected, but no one top tier. Since it was only looking at 2013-2014, the 2015-2016 picks may end up dragging him below average, since a two year sample size is pretty small. And this is really only one aspect of a GM's duties, so it isn't indicative of their overall GM skill, just the drafting portion.
As I've said before, my main issue with Macc is his misses in rounds 2-4. Hack, Smith, Stewart, Hansen, Mauldin, etc..... I get that every GM has misses, but Macc has had too many so far. My second issue is that he has stated that a good OL can be built with mid round picks. Well, the results of our OL speak for themselves. If he is retained, he needs to change that belief and hit on more post round 1 picks. Otherwise, Darnold's rookie contract years will go to waste.
My biggest criticism of your approach is that since you're a Jets fan, by grading the players yourself, you're introducing bias even if it's unintentional. This wouldn't be a problem if you were looking to evaluate the overall value of draft picks, but since your goal is compare Mac to the other GMs, it's a problem.
Fair point. The basis of the stats presented definitely has a subjective element to it (Elite vs. Good vs. OK. etc.). Not sure there's a way to avoid bias on evaluating Mac's picks except maybe talking to someone with no emotional stake in the team haha.
I'd consider using Approximate Value per season to measure the players. It isn't perfect, but at least there's no chance of bias.
Imo players must simply pass the eye test each weekend win lose or draw. Take Darnold versus Trumaine J for example. Sam has nothing to work with and a bad OL yet it some games has put up excellent numbers ...OTH going backwards, Johnson really sucked this past Bills game and his numbers aren't very good even before the boo boo that sidelined him...guy is 72 million bust (ouch).
When Mac first came in, with a bunch of money to spend (and a WIN mandate) the JETS went from a last place team to 10-6 & classic Fitzpatrick choke away from the playoffs.... the good thing about all the contracts he doled out was that they had an easy out for the JETS and that's why they have a ton of cap space available again.
Judging a GM/Coach is always difficult because the relationship to one another is intertwined. One buys the groceries, the other one uses the groceries to the best of their ability. Could Maccagnan's picks have been better under a different coach, I would say probably, but Maccagnan's scouting background and public comments about building a team through the draft directly contradict his entire tenure here. I would post his entire draft history again, but there's no need. We all know who the players are that are still on this team contributing, vs those who have either been cut, or never see the field. He's a middle of the pack GM, who hasn't maximized his return on mid round investments. Perennial playoff teams traditionally fill their roster with 3rd and 4th round picks that not only provide great depth, but even turn into impact players. I think the jets can do better, and should do better. He comes off as a very nice guy and carries himself well as a GM, but this team needs to people at the helm that believe in winning in the trenches and providing a rookie QB with a solid supporting cast. Cutting Hansen, Stewart and ignoring o-line high in the draft have left the jets in a position where even though they have a promising rookie QB, he may regress do to the shitty product around him. And again, the jets should be swinging for the fences in 2019. They have 100 mil in cap, a likely top 5 pick, and a 21 year old rookie QB who everyone thinks will be good. It's not a terrible job to take on, but Jets ownership has to be aggressive and go after a GM/HC duo that will make Darnold their primary concern.
BUMP - If We do not fire him this off season with the new coach. More likely we will fire him next year, leaving the new coach (again) having a new GM with a coach that is not connected to him. (idzik +rex)
Wonder how these picks would of done under competent coaching. Sometimes talent needs to be effectively coached up and I don't think our coaching staff especially on offense has done that in the last 4 years. Macs getting under the spotlight now which is fair. Just really hard to evaluate when you know that those he picks have been given to a poor coaching team. I like henry Anderson but unfortuanlty 4 years and haven't addressed the pass rush. That's my biggest problem with Mac currently Sent from my SM-G610Y using Tapatalk
The fact that none of his picks that are no longer on the team are contributing elsewhere is not encouraging.