he's still need those flowers if we reach and draft a shiity lineman too. giants did that with flowers and how did that work out? he was awful and they just cut him. I'd rather have a derrick ward then a flowers anyday. we also have free agency and trades and more picks to use on lineman. It all depends on the draft. luckily this year is a good draft for lineman so we should be able to get a good one in the 1st round but it doens't always work out like that
exactly. there is no 1 way to run a draft. you have to play it by ear and be prepared. mac did try and trade up for tunsil when he slipped he did bring in long he did bring in beechum. it's not like he isn't trying to improve the o-line but right now in the NFL good lineman are rare
You wouldn't have traded down in 2017 and taken Ryan Ramczyk? He is a stud at LT. I love Jamal Adams and wanted him, but would have been happier if Mac had taken Mahomes, or traded down, added a couple of extra picks and taken Ramczyk.
The thing is that when you picking in the top 10, there are a limited number of scenarios to consider, and all should be considered prior to the draft, so in reality, they have a lot more than 15 minutes to make their decision. Once they're on the clock, the only thing that should cause any hesitation is if another team calls them with a trade offer. I didn't like Trubisky, so I'm glad that he didn't fall and we didn't have to find out what Mac would have done! lol If he thought Watson and Mahomes weren't worth it, then there's a very good chance that he's not the right GM. I never thought he would take a QB last year because he had taken Hac in the 2nd round the year before, but with Hack looking so bad in his rookie season, and potential FBQs sitting right there (especially considering that Hack was a reach), and with it having been so long since we had had a topflight QB prospect, not taking one of them was a fireable offense imo. I love Adams, and he is a leader and great player, but would you rather have him and Darnold, or would you rather have Mahomes and have had 2nd round picks this year and a 2nd next year? With regards to the OL, I didn't like Garrett Bolles, but loved Ramczyk. I was truly surprised that he lasted that long. I also would have been very happy if Mac had traded down, taken Ramczyk and added an additional 2nd and 3rd round pick or maybe an additional 1st round pick in 2018. In the 3rd round, Antonio Garcia was there, but he hasn't panned out any better than Stewart. I probably would have taken either Garcia or Chris Godwin. In the 4th round, I wouldn't have traded down. I would have taken Samaje Perine or Carl Lawson.
I agree with you that reaching out of need is a bad idea. It almost never works. If you can't trade up or down to get a player you really like at a position of need, then staying put and taking the BPA is the way to go, unless there's a player at a position of need that is only slightly behind the BPA in ranking. Trading up/down can be difficult. One has to find a team willing to move up/down and then you have to agree on a fair price. Still, if I were a GM and had as many glaring holes at key positions as the Jets did, rather than just standing pat and taking the BPA when there was absolutely no need at that position, I would have traded down, even if it meant taking less in return than ideal, and I would have taken someone I liked at a position of need, or if there wasn't someone I liked at that spot in the draft, would have either tried to trade down further or would have taken the BPA at that spot and tried to use the other picks added to try to upgrade the team at those positions of need. With some positions being more important than others, that can boost a draft prospect's value as well. Yes Long was/is a good value, but he wasn't the best Center in FA as you claimed. That was my point.
There is some truth to what you say, but it's not as clearcut as you make it imo. There aren't always topnotch players available in FA, and at some positions there are almost never any really good players in their prime available. The only one who are have off field issues, bad injury histories, or are well past their prime. Yes, adding top end talent (stars or playmakers) is important, but one can still upgrade the talent of the roster by trading down upgrading positions of need in a big way, and adding more new players of talent, rather than taking one very talented player at a position with no need. Cheating towards need in the later rounds is generally a wasted effort. At that point, it's probably best to just take the BPA at that point.
People also thought Jack Conklin was a reach when the Titans took him 8th overall a couple years ago, and he turned out to be a stud. The problem is most GMs severely overestimate their ability to evaluate players. So if you go solely based on who you think the BPA is, is your success rate really that much higher?
and they did that and they told adams if he falls to them he will be a jet, he fell and they picked him. same goes for darnold he was on top of their board and they had backup plans for another QB who we'll never know but that was part of trading up as well. not sure of your point but mac has always looked prepared for anything in the draft. well trubiskly is looking great right now as is mahomes. watson is not. and to be fair how many GMs passed on watson? 15 or so? how many GMs passed on rodgers? 24? how many passed on brady 32 for 5 rounds? come on man. you can't make a decent point to save your life. your just driveling nonsense out of dislike. i'd love to see you be a GM you can't even talk about being a GM decently on a forum let along actually be one. i'd rather have him and darnold. mahomes looks great now sure but he has a stacked team that alex smith the classic mediocre journeyman QB had 10 wins with. and he has andy reid. and tyrek hill. mahomes is in the best position of any young QB overall. eveyrone was on watsons nuts after 5 games last eyar and now he looks medicore. you need a long resume before you slobber on a QBs balls and say who was right and wrong. and your looking in hindsight not looking in real time.
so the idzik theory stockpile picks then blow them all? there is no 100% way becuase it depends who is on the board on when. sometimes a great player falls and it's stupid not to take them, sometimes they don't and you want to trade back but nobody wants to trade up. you need to lay off madden. that's now how the NFL works in real life
not much of a reach. most had him as a mid 1st rounder like the 10-18 range. he went 8th. that's not a massive reach. more often then not massive reaches don't pan out
The point was that you said that 15 minutes wasn't very much time to make a decision. I was pointing out that that was nonsense as teams have time leading up to the draft to make their decisions. Whatever. I knew it was a waste of time to take you off ignore and respond to you. Your reading comprehension is at about a jr. high school level (or worse). Before you attack someone and try to claim that their points aren't clear, perhaps you should learn how to use our language and learn that there's a difference between "your" and "you're." It's funny that you seem to be the only one who doesn't see my points. Others may disagree with my points, but they see them. You know you're wrong. I exposed your factually incorrect statements, and then all you have is to attack me personally. Pathetic and utterly lame. My point was clear that with the Jets long history of sorry QBs, with both Hack not looking very good and never seeing the field during the season, and with two potential FQBs sitting there at the Jets' pick in last year's draft, that he should have taken one of them (Mahomes) even having taken Hack in the 2nd round the year before. You're again wrong that everyone was "slobbering on Watson's balls after 5 games." (Why am I not surprised at your crassness?) I certainly wasn't. I never thought that Watson would be a topnotch starter in the NFL. He was a great collegiate QB, but I didn't think he had a strong enough arm for the Meadowlands, and didn't want Mac to take him. As for Mahomes, yes, he is in a great situation now, but that doesn't change the fact that I wanted him in the 2017 draft, but never thought that Mac would take him. If Mac had taken Mahomes, there would have been no need to trade up this year. With the #37 pick, the Jets could have taken James Daniels, C, who was considered a perfect fit for the Jets' blocking scheme, and with the #49 pick, the Jets could have taken one of Connor Williams, OG, Derrius Guice, RB, James Washington, WR. As much as I love Adams and like Sam, I'd rather have Mahomes, Daniels, and either Guice, Williams or Washington and our 2nd round pick next year.
if you have a high pick yeah you have enough plans you don't have to worry and mac has always been prepared and gotten his guy he loved. after the 1st round though that changes drastically but yeah i should have known better to reply to you lol i didn't attack you but you just did so reported. i said you can't make a point, that's not an atatck. you jsut look for reasons to hate specific players to people and base all your posts around that,
In the salary cap era you shouldn’t be shopping for top notch talent in free agency. That’s for the bottom dwellers. Most teams winning March tend to be losing in December. Moving around in the draft is fine and definitely has it place but it’s still about adding talent over shopping for positions. And I say it’s ok to cheat later in the rounds because the players are rated closer together. A guard rated 200 is closer to a lb rated 220 than a guard rated 5 is to a lb 20. Obviously it’s not an exact science and every now and then a team has to make something happen rather than be happy sitting still and collecting what comes to them but long term, taking talent is always going to be the best way to draft. Unless the cap goes away.
No way, I wanted Mahomes badly that draft but I thought Adams was the 2nd best player in the draft and no chance I’d trade him for Ramczyk. The only one I would’ve taken over Adams would have been Mahomes but after drafting Darnold who I rated higher than Mahomes im happy with the way it worked out. Ramczyk had questions whether he could play LT pre draft and we still don’t know that he can, he certainly wasn’t worth a top 10 pick. I’m sure Mac made some mistakes in the 2nd and beyond as far as the OL goes but I can’t really remember who I might’ve taken with those picks, definitely not In the first rd though. To me the biggest mistake was not going all in on Norwell who would’ve only cost cash in which we are in abundance with and he is young and elite. Next draft there will be no excuse not to go OL early and often with it looking like it will be the strongest class since Mac has been GM.
Nobody's advocating massive reaches, just balancing who you think the BPA is with what you think your needs are.
i get that for sure. i'm just saying sometimes the cards don't fall that way. yes we need o-line help but funny enough as of now our o-line is top 5 in run blocking and middle of the pack in pass protection but regardless yeah we need o-line help, but if your on the clock and there is an excellent player your in love with there and no o-line worth taking and nobody willing to trade up so you can slide back, it's much better to take the excellent player
I believe you're also forgetting the pick we had in the first. If we'd picked Mahomes, and thus didn't need to draft Darnold, we'd still have the 6th overall, and could have, if the board remained the same, drafted a Quenton Nelson, Roquan Smith, etc.
You're right! I had just noticed that. At #6, the Jets could have taken Quentin Nelson (although I'm against taking an OG that high), Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James, Roquan Smith, Mike McGlinchey, or Marcus Davenport. Alternatively, they possibly could have traded up to take Bradley Chubb, or possibly traded down, added an additional 1st round pick in 2019, a 2nd and 3rd, or 2nd and 4th round picks, and taken one of Calvin Ridley, Frank Ragnow, Billy Price, Isaiah Wynn, DJ Moore or Hayden Hurst. Thus, by taking Mahomes or Ramczyk last year, not only would either of those have filled one of the Jets's biggest needs, but with their other picks, they could have at a minimum added an edge rusher this year and/or gone a long way towards rebuilding/upgrading their OL. Mahomes, Chubb, Daniels (they probably wouldn't have had to trade both 2nds this year and their 2nd next year just to move up a couple of spots for Chubb, but even if they did, I think that Mahomes and Chubb > Adams & Darnold Mahomes, Roquan Smith, James Daniels, Connor Williams, and our 2nd round pick in 2019 > than Adams & Darnold Mahomes, Fitzpatrick, James Daniels or Courtland Sutton or Harold Landry or Mike Gesicki, and Connor Williams or Donte Jackson AND our 2nd round pick in 2019 > than Adams & Darnold Mahomes, trade down with Bengals & conservatively get a 2nd and 3rd round pick - 1st - Calvin Ridley or Frank Ragnow or Billy Price or DJ Moore or Isaiah Wynn, 2a - James Daniels or Courtland Sutton or Harold Landry or Mike Gesicki, 2b - Connor Williams, 2c - Donte Jackson, 3a - Shepard, 3b - Malik Jefferson or Martinas Rankin or Orlando Brown > Adams and Darnold Ramczyk (trade down with Colts and conservatively say that they added just a 2nd and 3rd round pick), 2nd - Quincy Wilson or JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chris Godwin or Kareem Hunt , Darnold this year > than Adams & Darnold The possibilities are mind boggling. The bottom line is that the Jets could have filled most of their glaring needs and dramatically have improved the talent level on the team.
So I was curious about how well Macc has been performing draft-wise, so I went through every pick from 2005 to 2014 and graded them to gain an idea just how many players we could expect given the picks he has had. The TL;DR version is that he seems to be at least an average drafter or better, depending on how our better talent pans out. My grading system had 6 levels: Hit - Top Tier: These are the cream of the crop players in the NFL, the type of players you'd hope you draft "the next..." of. e.g. Nick Mangold, Aaron Rodgers, A.J. Green, Khalil Mack, Dez Bryant. Hit - Solid: These are good players that you'd be happy to have drafted, Pro Bowl level typically, or at least consistently one of the better players at their position. e.g. Carlos Rogers, Muhammad Wilkerson, Aqib Talib, Matthew Stafford, Eric Decker Hit - OK: These are players that can start in the NFL. Not necessarily good starters, but starters nonetheless over a reasonable time span. e.g. Ronnie Brown, Sheldon Richardson, Eric Ebron, Domata Peko, Spencer Long Hit - Long Term: These players took a while to become starter level or better, and typically aren't the best draft picks because of that delay. However, they still eventually show they belong in the league. e.g. Michael Crabtree, Morris Claiborne, Marshawn Lynch, Greg Olsen, DeMario Davis. Hit - Role Player: These players are typically depth players, not people you really want starting, but can fill a role either as backups or special teams over several years. e.g. Cordarelle Patterson, Vladimir Ducasse, Drew Coleman, Jacquizz Rodgers, Shonn Greene. Miss - Didn't pan out. e.g. JaMarcus Russell, Dee Milliner, Trent Richardson, Luke Joeckel, Jace Amaro. I tried to be fairly generous with gradings, and there would probably be numerous disagreements on how I graded certain players, but hopefully that all comes out in the wash given the sample size. My biggest struggles were very early years, where I wasn't following the league at all and so hadn't heard of many names and was relying heavily on google/wiki, and also 2014 where players have barely had enough time to establish themselves. Basically to be OK or better, they typically needed to start for several years, including years past their rookie contract (I figured players typically were forced into starting positions by coaches during this period), unless they were running backs because of their shorter shelf life. An example of that would be Doug Martin being graded as Solid since the Buccaneers got some really good years out of him. Anyway, based on this, I got the following chances of success (rounded to the nearest 0.1 percent) over that period: Round 1 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 19.4% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 52.4% Hit Rate - OK or better: 67.1% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 72.1% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 81.5% Round 2 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 6.6% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 20.1% Hit Rate - OK or better: 41.8% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 46.5% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 64.2% Round 3 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 4.0% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 10.0% Hit Rate - OK or better: 22.0% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 26.6% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 45.7% Round 4 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 2.2% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 7.1% Hit Rate - OK or better: 18.1% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 21.4% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 42.2% Round 5 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 1.1% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 5.0% Hit Rate - OK or better: 11.4% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 14.2% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 32.3% Round 6 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 0.8% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 2.4% Hit Rate - OK or better: 9.2% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 12.3% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 30.4% Round 7 Hit Rate - Top Tier: 0.2% Hit Rate - Solid or better: 0.9% Hit Rate - OK or better: 4.1% Hit Rate - Long Term or better: 5.9% Hit Rate - Role Player or better: 20.8% ----- With that hard slog done, the next thing I did was look at what Maccagnan has had pick-wise to draft with. Since 2015, he has drafted a player with 4 x 1st round, 3 x 2nd round, 4 x 3rd round, 4 x 4th round, 4 x 5th round, 6 x 6th round, and 3 x 7th round. With these picks and the hit rates above, this gives the following expected returns on investment in terms of number of players in each category or better: Hits - Top Tier: 1.3 Hits - Solid or better: 3.8 Hits - OK or better: 6.7 Hits- Long Term or better: 7.7 Hits - Role Player or better: 12.4 --- So how would I grade Macc's picks so far? I'm really hesitant to try and grade anyone as top tier this early, as the time frame each player as been in the league hasn't been long enough, so I'll just go for OK or better as the target, as well as role players at this stage. Macc's Hits - OK or better: 8 Leonard Williams, Darron Lee, Jamal Adams, Sam Darnold, Marcus Maye, Jordan Jenkins, Brandon Shell, Lachlan Edwards (I list Edwards here since we've seen the disaster of having a shitty punter in the past) Macc's Hits - Role Player or better: 14 Players listed above plus Nathan Shepherd, Juston Burris, Christopher Herndon Jordan Leggett, Elijah McGuire, Parry Nickerson, Trenton Cannon If I had to say any of these players were Solid or better in my on judgement at this stage, I'd pick Leonard Williams, Darron Lee, Jamal Adams, Sam Darnold, and Marcus Maye. Based on this, I'd hazard to guess Maccagnan is batting about average in the draft currently. If Sam Darnold and one of Leonard Williams/Darron Lee/Jamal Adams/Marcus Maye becomes elite with the others being Solid, I'd say he's batting above average. I could probably refine it to be more nuanced based on exact draft position, but the sample size reduces 32-fold for each pick, and just a quick look at the 1st round pick-by-pick, the hit rates didn't seem top-biased at all. I've also had a quick look at hit rates by position in the 3rd round as well due to the speculation of trading for various players with those picks, but I'll address those in the appropriate threads. It's late here, so I'll have a look at how other respected GMs have drafted over that period sometime this weekend.
I’m a Mac fan but I still can’t understand how poorly he picked last year in rounds 3-5. Just a college football fan an I liked Stewart and really liked Leggett but the fact that after 1 year he cut Stewart (and was so sought after nobody claimed him so we did) and Hansen (who got cut from TWO separate practice squads-WTF) and Leggett, hurt all last year and but for his 1 TD really hasn’t shown much of anything. Not to mention Donahue. He’s GOTTA make hay in rounds 3-5. I think we got a player in Herndon but busting on 4 picks in rounds 3-5 one year after they’ve been drafted is no way to build a team. Even for at least depth.
