St. Augustine FL.... 1/2 mile from the ocean... 2 blocks from the marsh....oldest house on the street (= lowest) Matthew put 15"+ of water in my house
here is what I just looked up and learned = in the past 50 or so years there have been many other Hurricanes that were located where Florence is currently and NOT ONE OF THEM hit the east coast . BUT-----but---BUT = they ALL hooked north at some point , its hard to argue with that.
Stinky not a jinx,,,,,,its hard to argue with it,,,,,,,,depending on that high to the North of Florence what happens. Gotta be a reason why all of them turned
exactly... the High is stronger than some anticipated. I HOPE IM WRONG but I try to follow the ones that show consistent trends. EURO and GFS have been all over the place, and the latest GFS is batshit crazy. It's currently moving WSW....... Still early, and we'll get a better idea tonight after they send in a recon plane. Ok, I'm going to check the surf
IM BETTEING ON HISTORY,,,,,something has gotta give, either the HIGH to the North of Florence or something. There must be a reason that THEY ALWAYS turn North ? Maybe that high to the North is being over emphasized and will weaken or shift ? I think Florence will turn North at some point history is on my side
From reading this, I'm just glad I had all my gutter and downspout work completed over the summer. I'm halfway up on a hill about 750ft. in elevation so most of my water just keeps on flowing downwards. Locals starting to pay attention to Flo for next week. Gordy or what's left of him is passing thru tomorrow with several inches of rain. Kudos to LeafFilter Leaf Guard gutter systems. Has worked exactly as advertised and from all appearances, it will get severely tested this winter.
Last 2 euro runs were pretty much identical. North Carolina and tracking up through Ohio /western Pennsylvania. 967 mb at landfall . Very believable imo
We'll see.... they've been flip flopping ALOT.... and have been initializing the storm way weaker than it's been. At least the OBX population is pretty sparse if that happens
I wouldn’t sleep on this storm,gfs spit out some silly track at 6 that puts jersey in play. Right now I would say if you are in jersey stay interested,if you are south of Virginia be concerned.
Stinky,,,,,I hear you! Im told that this high or Ridge to the North of Florence that is steering her West is "HISTORICAL " and that none of the storms over the past 50 years had anything like this steering or guiding them West,,,,,,I still find it hard to believe that the High to the North can't be overdone on the models or shift or weaken and that this storm cannot or will not go North this far out time wise ? I mean this is science but it aint exact science ! I feel like the guy on the original Pelham 123 movie saying "there has to be a red light " = they all have turned Northwest's in the past.
The pictures I posted on the last page change with each new set of model runs, so my comments are eventually going to stop making sense. If you look at the pictures now you can see that the split on predicted intensities is still there, with some runs making it a tropical storm/Cat 1 in 6 days and others making it a Cat 3/Cat 4, but now there's also a split on the path, with a bunch of models having it curve around to the north the way stinky has been talking about. The issue is that high that is sitting in the North Atlantic, north of Bermuda. The so-called "Bermuda High" is more correctly called the "Bermuda-Azores High", since it drifts from east to west and west to east during the course of the year. During the summer it tends to be more westward, which is why Bermuda has great weather. As the calendar turns to fall it typically weakens and drifts to the east, which is why most tropical systems that originate off Africa eventually turn north and head out to sea (and why Bermuda does get the occasional hurricane). These forecasts of a Carolinas landfall are all based on the prediction that that high is going to stay where it is and stay just as strong (or even strengthen), which would be very unusual; the runs that now have it going out to sea predict that the high will weaken and/or move to the east. Edit: last word should have been east, not west.
Correct.... good analysis. I'm just hoping that the UKMET is overestimating the HIGH.... but historically the GFS has a tendency to underestimate them. We'll see or we'll be looking at another Dora... I sure hell hope not. There's still plenty of homes not recovered from Matthew... and you'll see more fall into the ocean.... and all of downtown STA will be underwater btw... you can toss any forecast saying she'll be a TS/Cat1 in the trash. She's about to BLOW UP
