Stinky I still have lots to learn about this stuff but I believe that the GFS has not done well in the past with Hurricanes,,,,,,Euro although a shell of its old self has done better . Might be time to send up the Bat Signal and get The Jayster involved especially if this might be headed his way
While there is some truth to that, they're pretty close IMO.... GFS tends to overhype intensity, but I'll say so far with this storm it's been the only one close.... and If I remember correctly, GFS was the one that nailed Irma last year For this storm the EURO has been flip-flopping worse than John Kerry, so I don't know what to believe. This storm is defying all odds really.... cooler temps and wind shear and it ramped up to a Major in a day I do have a bit of a pit in my stomach on this one EDIT: If you like the EURO... you should see their last update.... plowing rt into Charleston
this storm has strengthened since yesterday big time---> no one saw that coming. Also I do not know how reliable the Ukie has been in years past but last winter I thought it did very well and right now it appears to be in the Euros corner,,,,,,,,,,this stuff freaking fascinates me
Yeah, who knows at this point.... but I like to look at trends. Yesterday, their forecast was the polar opposite... with the storm just cruising out to sea, not to mention they were way undercalling the intensity. Lets just hope for a big beast storm to slowly make its way to Greenland
Latest Euro says hello Jay,,,,sends Florence straight for the Jaysters neighborhood. Hopefully this changes still lots of time
Bermuda is certainly at risk here. If you didn't know, they get almost all of their water from rainfall (the roofs of almost every building are set up to direct rainwater down into cisterns in the basement, resulting in the classic Bermuda white stepped roof - see https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-38222271), so storms can be a good thing, but obviously a strong hurricane is a different matter. I was there a month ago on a cruise (it's a wonderful place to visit - if you haven't been I highly recommend it), but if the storm decides to head that way any passengers who have booked to leave New York this weekend won't be going there, that's for sure.
This forecast is an outlier, but UKMET was last year too, and was the one that nailed IRMA's track.... when I was saying "WTF is up with that?" Maybe I should call in my final insurance $ inspection.....
Stinky the Ukie did real well last winter and other times as I remember,,,,,,,,,still lots of time ,its almost a week away but oh my = the early model guidance
GFS is looking REALLY bad for you guys........ YES it will change, but I've watching the trends and they continually trend N. UK has also trended slightly north than earlier. Hopefully it scoots more east
Not only all this but Stinky I just watched a video of a MET who was saying that this storm ( did something he has never seen or I have never heard of ) sucked up a shit load of sand and is currently a sandstorm as we'll as a CAT 4
Probably inhaled some of the surrounding SAL (Saharan Dust Layer) usually that's a death knell for tropical systems....but Aunt Flo is an angry beeeotch
That bitch better not swing any further south. I'm not looking to redo the house I just about finished and I can't even begin to understand how pissed you would be.
Cool, but he might be just a little too excited about it, no? Now getting that excited about Sam Darnold, I get.
Holy crap - all of a sudden the GFS has Florence making landfall on Jersey shore/Long Island next Thursday/Friday! https://imgur.com/a/ffp7Zhl
