”Of the 54 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 1998, just five (Peyton and Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Joe Flacco) have won a Super Bowl. Of the 33 quarterbacks drafted in the top 10, just two (Peyton and Eli) have won a Super Bowl.” I think Carson Wentz would have been the third. During the 15 years from the 2002 draft through the 2016 draft there have been 187 QBs drafted 43 of which were drafted in the 1st round. Of the 43 in the 1st round only 14 have become the face of their franchise if you count Bortles. Of the 187 QBs drafted only 28 have had successful careers with their team or serving as nomad starting QBs like McCown (Jets), Smith (Redskins), Cutler (Miami) and Palmer who just retired. Brees and Brady have been around even longer, but counting them too you have 30 QB in 17 years for 32 teams. Can you guess where that puts the Browns and Jets? Having a franchise guy for a long period is the key to having a successful franchise and teams need to keep drafting until they hit the lottery. There are 6 QBs that might be taken in the 1st round this year, which would make it historic and maybe 16 QBs selected in the draft which would also be historic. The down side is, based on averages it would be lucky to get 2-3 quality franchise QBs out of the whole draft. Odds are less than 50/50 the Jets will get the right guys, but what’s new? No matter who the Jets select he will probably suck and in 4 years we will be drafting a QB in the 1st round again, but cross your fingers and just maybe our GM will get the right guy. Based on the Jets GM previous QB picks I doubt it, so Thursday can’t come soon enough.
It is a huge crapshoot. Takes incredible luck to hit. Green Bay Packers hit the jackpot twice and it makes you think they know more than other teams, but it isn’t true. If Packers knew what they were getting out of Rodgers, they would have been more proactive and traded up to get him. Same for all the other QBs who were drafted in the mid rounds. In my heart, I am hopeful that this is the time the Jets get it right and pick a perennial pro bowler, but we know...the odds are against that.
On the bright side, picking a QB in the first round more than doubles our chance of getting a good one (33% vs 15%).
Matt Ryan would be the 6th QB on that list if his team didn't choke away a 25 point second half lead.
If you extrapolate this further (say 35 years) you have guys like Elway, Marino, Eason, Kelly, Aikman, Bledsoe, Dilfer, McNair, Collins. All started Super Bowls. Some won, some lost. But QB's of varying ability but all good enough to at least get there. Of all the QB's taken in the first round since 1983, 18 have started Super Bowls. Some multiple times. Plenty of guys in that group that never reached the dance but did start and win playoff games. Sanchez, Bortles, Rivers, Testaverde, Harbaugh etc. We can't be looking Super Bowl right now. Let's find a guy we think can get us to the playoffs first. That's hard enough.
So let's never draft a QB again since we're automatically going to select a bust? You have to take the plunge at some point to escape QB hell.
If any QB we draft turns out to be as good as Ryan, then the move up will go down as perhaps the best trade in our team's history.
I think we will end up with Darnold or Mayfield. Either way I like the pick, but it's still a 50/50 crapshoot.
There have also been 52 SBs and 12 QBs won 32 of them. The NFL unfortunately isn't as unpredictable as we'd like to think.
How great it would be to have a QB that can get you to the dance repeatedly? I want a QB that teams are afraid of and the media drools over in a good way.
Yes...nothing is EVER guaranteed A couple of months ago Greensleeves posted that 67% of First Rnd QBs historically are adequate/good...as you progress down each rnd e.g. 2nd 3rd etc the chances of someone DECENT....NOT NECESSARILY HOF goes less and less And you are also right to keep drafting a QB till you get REALLY lucky...so that's life in the NFL Mac made the RIGHT move to grab the 3 spot for one of the better QBs talent wise...his odds just went up Have faith and let's see how a lot of other variables affecting a rookie QB e.g. Attitude Coaching play out!
Yes ..maybe But I would rather have 50/50 than 80/20 AGAINST sucess that later rounds may offer The Bree's and Wilsons from round 3 are complete outliers...I mean gun to your head/ job on the line do want Kyle Lauletta or Sam Darnold????
We know how this goes. We draft a dud in the first round and the Patriots will draft Lauletta in the 3rd round. In a couple of years Kyle Lauletta will be worth a first round pick in a trade or taking the Patriots to the SB.
Nah, in a couple of years I would guess Brady and Belichick have both ridden off into the sunset..along with anybody else any good having followed them. McDaniels will be running the team and they will be mired in the cellar of the AFC East.
