The question really is why not Baker?? I suspect the answer to that question may be coming over the next few seasons. I was watching a video clip of Francesa the other day where he was describing what a volatile pick Mayfield is in his mind. Anywhere from working out superbly to being the end of whatever NFL exec's career that drafts him and just about everywhere in between. From what I've seen I kind of agree with that assessment. The two biggest hang ups (three actually) that I have with him are his height, potentially volatile personality and the fact that the other three guys I think are more in the traditional mold of NFL QB. Grabbing the crotch or whatever doesn't so much bother me but little things like blowing off the Chargers playbook, some cocky responses in interviews, and getting dragged off drunk to jail taken as a whole make me wince. Any and all of those things I guess can be overcome but I'm going to have to see it to believe it. And actually that reminds me of a fourth major hang up I have about the Jets selecting Mayfield. If they really are happy to draft him why didn't they just keep their asses parked right where they were and pick him with the #6 pick? It seems "almost" impossible that all 4 guys will be drafted by then. My prediction is that he gets drafted in the 10-20 range and is a complete wild card if he works out or not.
I love baker but I must say the blowing off of the chargers playbook was alarming, I mean I get he doesn't want to go and get behind Philip rivers for a few years and he knows he most likely won't fall to a point where they could ever draft him but you have to be professional in the pre draft process. Still have him as my no 2. but yeah..
I am starting to join in the Mayfield hype. Not to the point that I would pick him over Darnold or Rosen, but to the point where if the Jets picked him I wouldn't hate it. He has a star quality that the other 3 don't have. Now I don't want a star, I want a QB, but there is a chance Baker could be both.
All I know is that if Macc has a shot at Rosen and passes over him, I pray he doesn't wind up in the AFC East, especially with the Pats! As the clock winds down, and all the hype and projected "potential" starts settling under the weight of reality, Rosen's ability to deliver right now, and not in some hopeful future begins to take on more urgency. Especially for Macc and Bowles, who while having been given extensions, don't have any margin of error. And god help them if they skip Rosen, and he comes back twice a season to make them regret it. The "good news" for them in that case is they probably won't have to endire more than one season of that torture, but us fans will.
Yep. That will be my worry not matter what. Likely Rosen or Mayfield. Whichever they choose, I will wonder what it would be like with the other one. Especially if the other one goes to Buffalo, Miami or New England. I've focused on those 2 QB's mostly because I expect Darnold to go to Cleveland or the Giants and I don't really want Allen due to the time it could take him to get on the field.
Wait what did Napoleon do this time? No wonder the Giants or Browns aren’t interested. If true more red flags. What if Teddy beats Mayfield in a competition ? How will Mayfield react?
I will say this again,,,I just don't trust Mac to make the correct choice----> I hope I am wrong but his track record is what it is. If it was me I would pick Rosen,,,,,but I don't have to GET IT RIGHT , I can be wrong but the Jets need to get this right but have 50 years of blowing it in their corner ! PS I would have fathered stayed at # 6 but thats me.
I keep reading more and more articles that have Mayfield as the best QB in this draft. Seems like a stretch but I would be fine with him at #3
The argument for Mayfield being the best is that he's the complete package. Great passer, great attitude, great leader, versatile skill set, 2nd place in terms of being ready to play sooner than later, doesn't have the durability concerns that Rosen has, and can overcome the scheme transition in a good system and with good coaching. Rosen's argument is that he wins the debate in terms of "pure pocket passer", which pocket passing has been correctly identified as a fundamental skill set to be a QB who can take a team deep into the playoffs. If you think any of the other QBs can't develop into a very good pocket passer like Rosen already is, then it is logical you'd look at Rosen as the best. Darnold's argument is that he has the best potential in this class due to not being flawed like Josh Allen is. He has everything you want from a checkbox perspective, can do more things outside of the pocket than Rosen can do, and if he cleans up his weaknesses is a total beast without the durability concerns. The argument for Allen is that he's the most physically gifted in the class, and comes out of a pro style offense. The argument for Jackson is that he is by far the most dynamic and explosive player in this class, and is the only true "dual threat" QB coming out. He's shown improvement every single year as a passer and is very underrated and underappreciated in this regard. He is a greater threat on the field than any of the four who are overwhelmingly seen as better than he is.
The whole interview is on tonight on espn, fwiw. It was just aired on ABC and he was pretty candid in it I thought. There's also shows with Rudolph, Barkley and JT Barrett.
One of the reasons the Jets are where they are right now at QB is that we keep taking QB's who are projects in some form or another. Then we fail to develop the project and we're back where we started. Since Chad was drafted the Jets have taken Kellen Clemens, Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith and Christian Hackenberg in the 2nd round or higher. Each of these QB's had significant development issues that the Jets had to try to iron out after they were picked. Clemens was in Oregon's Spread in 2005 after being in a more standard set in 2003 and 2004. He had regressed slightly from 2003 to 2004 before Belotti installed the Oregon Spread. His numbers looked much better in 2005 before he got hurt but much of the improvement was due to the change in the offensive scheme. There were easier throws to be made and less of a need to read the defense after the snap. Clemens knew where the throw was going at the snap on a large percentage of passing plays. Sanchez was a one year starter at USC and teams had not had a chance to adapt to him much. His big bowl game at the end of the year was against another new opponent Penn State who didn't know much about him. Geno Smith came out of the WVU Air Raid and was unprepared for the speed of the NFL game. He didn't read defenses that well after the snap and he often was blindsided by the pass rush. Pocket awareness is not something that an Air Raid QB has to have to succeed. Christian Hackenberg came out of Penn State and ran a Pro Set however he never completely settled in and mastered the offense his first season as starter, showing flashes here and there but not sustained excellence. Before his second season a new head coach arrived with a new offensive scheme, still a Pro Set but very different in terms of the pre and post-snap reads. The talent around him declined due to Bill O'Brien recruits choosing to go elsewhere and the new coach not being able to get similar quality players in his first year. The net effect was that Hackenberg regressed from year one to year two and then failed to recover in year three. One thing that is really important when evaluating college QB's is how their career progressed from year to year. Most good QB's see a marked improvement from year one to year three as the starter. Most busts are identifiable in retrospect by problems that they had adjusting as they went from year to year. In the 2018 draft we have four QB's that are commonly referenced as potential high picks. One of them, Josh Rosen, checks off most of the boxes you want to see checked off by a potential franchise QB. He started for three years for his school and his performance improved from his first year to his third. He started enough games that it's clear that his performance wasn't a fluke. He completed enough passes that it's clear that he can function at the required level for an NFL QB. He had a ridiculous number of 400+ yard games in his career in a Pro Set offense. This is high volume highly productive passing and it's consistent. Like all players entering the NFL he still has things to learn, however he is by far the most pro ready QB in this draft. Nobody else is even close in terms of likely ability to function well early in his career. Another of them, Baker Mayfield, checks off many of the boxes as well. He started for 4 years in college and his play improved year over year. His fourth season was markedly better than his first and second and a small step up from his third. His teams won consistently and he was a primary reason that they did so. His numbers were inflated by the Spread offense he played in but they were very high in the scale and it is not unreasonable to think that his efficiency at the NFL level will be good based on his efforts in college. The two check boxes that Mayfield does not check off are the Pro Set and Size check boxes. He played in a Spread in college and he is likely to have an adjustment period in the NFL as NFL players are bigger, faster and significantly better at keeping the QB contained in the pocket. In addition NFL defensive coordinators will find weaknesses as he adjusts and try to exploit them. The Size problem will be less of an issue if Mayfield makes the play adjustments necessary in moving from a Spread to a West Coast (or Ehrhardt-Perkins or whatever) offense. If he has trouble with the play adjustments the Size problem will become an aggravating factor. If you take Mayfield you are stating that you can get him over the hump of changing from a Spread to a Pro Set and compensating for the Size issues and generally adapting to the NFL at a high efficiency level. I make his chances out at about 50/50 with his accomplishments and attitude making up a large part of my hit rating and the offense he is coming from and his size making up most of my bust rating. Sam Darnold is widely seen as the best prospect in the class. This is a terribly misleading evaluation of him that flows from his spectacular season last year when called upon to lead his team after an injury. In fact he is a decent prospect who may well develop into a good NFL QB however he has many flaws that are going to have to be corrected before this happens. He has a hitch in his throwing motion that both slows down his delivery and causes inaccuracy high on some throws. His footwork is a work in progress. The Cow on Ice evaluation was harsh but there is some truth to the notion that he has a lot to work on before he gets things settled. He has stated that he is not planning to change his throwing motion to get the hitch out and speed up his delivery. This is not a promising start to the needed development process. It is likely that Darnold will take a couple of seasons to develop and at the low end may never develop at all due to the number of things that need to be fixed. I make him out as the third best QB prospect in the class but I do not think he is substantially better than Lamar Jackson. I think the two of them are fairly similar in star/bust potential. Josh Allen is a train wreck. He's never been a particularly accurate passer. He's never faced consistently good competition and he has not played well in the games where he did face major competition. Like Darnold he started for only two seasons in college and he regressed significantly between his first and second seasons. The difference is that Darnold, while regressing, still maintained a productive level of offense. Allen just fell off a cliff. He lost nearly 2 yards per attempt on his passes, going from a good 8.6 to a below average 6.7. His deep strike ability declined also and he began eating the ball on a lot of deep patterns and taking sacks or pushing forward for small gains in those situations. He consistently looked unaware of where the pressure was coming from on his drop backs and he had a strong tendency to retreat too much in the face of the rush. The difference between his first second seasons as starter is very similar to the regression between Hack's first and third seasons. If an NFL team drafts Josh Allen high in the draft they are making the statement that they can teach him how to be a good NFL QB who plays significantly better than he ever played in college. I have a bridge to sell anybody who thinks they can do this.
Excellent summary! I truly hope all the "Mayfield is a lock for the Jets" talk is just smokescreen and the Jets do the srmart thing and take Rosen - if he's there, which won't surprise me if he's not. He is clearly the best QB in this class, and even if a team thinks they can develop the potential in the other three, why do that when you could have the nearly finished product Day 1? If Rosen is there and Macc skips him, it will be such a SOJ move that it might be the last one I ever watch.
I think it is 50/50 that Rosen is there. If he's there and we pass him up we'll probably regret it for a decade or so.
I do respect your opinion most times but I also know that you take liberties with stats and just make blanket judgments after that on many occasions. Can you explain your decisions about Rosen and Mayfield listed above statistically so we can know your real rationale?
The primary differences between Rosen and Mayfield are the offenses they came out of and the size differential. Mayfield actually had the better college season if you look at what you'd expect the numbers to look like out of the UCLA Pro Set and the Oklahoma Spread. However he has to make the transition to a Pro Set now and history tells us that QB's making the transition from a Mike Leach Spread to the pros has been very iffy. The Air Raid has produced no quality starters at the NFL level outside of Nick Foles and he has had a mixed career so far. Now throw in the fact that Mayfield will have to make the transition at 6' or so and I think it's an open question if he can do that. Rosen was a quality QB when healthy in a much more standard offense and with less of a supporting cast than Mayfield had. He's a high volume passer who has to read the defense both pre and post-snap. He has worked extensively in play action where he has to turn his back to the defense and then make reads after that. He's widely viewed as having excellent mechanics. He has much less to learn at the pro level so he will be able to devote more time to making the adjustments necessary to compensate for the difference in the speed of the game. Also, a 6'4" he has the size needed to throw from the pocket without having his sightlines routinely blocked. He has a much easier transition to make than Mayfield and he is a better prospect. For the Jets Rosen is a much better prospect than Mayfield because the NFL has not done a good job of successfully developing Air Raid QB's to date. It's not reasonable to think that the Jets will get it right where nobody else really has because... Jets.. Do you really think there is a good argument that a quality QB coming out of an Air Raid is as valuable as a quality QB coming out of a Pac-12 Pro Set?
This is terribly misleading because it is wrong. Clay Helton replaced Max Browne with Sam Darnold not because of any injury but because the USC offense "needed a spark" (in Helton's words) that he hoped "Sam can provide." Max Browne did suffer an injury and a season-ending one at that but it was after he left USC, transferred to Pitt and was playing for the Pitt Panthers against Syracuse while Sam Darnold that same day was throwing for over 300 yards and 3 TDs against Oregon State. "Think Philip Rivers doesn't have flaws in his delivery? But he gets it there.....You throw a football like you do a rock at a streetlight...it's gotta be natural....if you're trying to manufacture a throw it isn't gonna work." .. - Sonny Jergensen, QB, Pro Football Hall of Fame. Sonny Jergensen on Sonny Jergensen: . "People didn't like my motion. They said, 'uggh!..what are you gonna do with this motion?...HE WINDS UP, HE TAKES LONG!' ....I said: "well, let me ask you this: if the ball gets there before the defender gets there, who cares?....I threw sidearm, behind my back...I was 2 for 3 left-handed."
Saw this on Twitter... Comp % on 40+ yard passes: Josh Rosen: 71.4% Lamar Jackson: 36.4% Baker Mayfield: 31.6% Sam Darnold: 30% Josh Allen: 12.5% Staggering numbers for both Joshes
