http://nflroughdraft.com/rays-top-15-quarterbacks-and-comparisons/ http://www.thehuddlereport.com/talentboard.shtml https://www.nfldraftgeek.com/2018-nfl-draft-quarterback-rankings/
I kind of liked it better when Mayfield was flying under the radar. I don't think the Giants would take Mayfield, but Dorsey is no dummy. He has a real eye for talent, and I'm afraid that he will shock the non-NFL world and take Mayfield #1.
I think the Manzel makes it harder for the Browns to draft a QB that will be compared to him just as it is harder for us to draft a QB that will be compared to Hackenburg. Dorsey also seems to like the pro-typical QB with good measureables. But yes, it could all be a smoke screen. I will hold my breath on Thursday. But we should end up with a choice of one of Rosen or Mayfield and that is a pretty good place to end up. I am still not sure which of the two I like better. Yesterday it was Rosen. But I will say this my track record on QBs is not great. I am much better at pointing which QBs not to take. Then again I was against Watson last year.
“Anybody who doesn’t take Mayfield at the top is making a big mistake,’’ he said. “Mayfield is head and shoulders above any quarterback.’’ Agree with you + the comment he made above. History shows that what he said is 100% true, rare for QB's to succeed at the NFL level... to think 4 will be great is wishful thinking. He's most likely right on the money that most of these QB's will stink and no reason to get too excited over them. Now, he may have it all wrong on which ones succeed, but they do match what I think 100%... Suspect this is going to happen: Darnold 1, Barkley 2, Baker 3 (NY JETS)... Can't wait as people are going to go crazy (in all directions)... it's going to be fun. Lol!
Thanks for posting these links. Very interesting stuff. The Huddle Report has some very interesting rankings. He has Derrius Guice ranked over Saquon Barkley, McGlinchey as only the 9th best OL prospect, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo as the top edge-rushing prospect, Jaire Alexander as the top CB prospect, and Bradley Chubb as the 2nd ranked DL prospect. He also has Derwin James as the top prospect in the draft. Here's his top 10: OVERALL RANK POSITION RANK POS PLAYERS SCHOOL TALENT GRADE Notes 1 1 S Derwin James Florida St 1.28 His talent is obvious, I believe you draft obvious 2 1 QB Sam Darnold USC 1.34 Dan Marino like passing. Courageous, accuracy 3 1 DL Harrison Phillips Stanford 1.36 Can play in multiple fronts, pass rush & run stuffer 4 1 OG Quenton Nelson Notre Dame 1.36 #56 a pure guard, good feet strength etc. 5 1 CB Jaire Alexander Louisville 1.37 Best corner in this draft 6 2 QB Baker Mayfield Oklahoma 1.38 Don't find this type of competitive nature often 7 1 ER Ogbonnia Okoronkwo Oklahoma 1.44 Clone of Robert Mathias 8 1 OT Connor Williams Texas 1.46 Aggressive, excellent athleticism, sloppy techniques 9 2 CB Minkah Fitzpatrick Alabama 1.47 Like Chiefs & Seahawks safeties, coach on the field 10 2 ER Bradley Chubb North Carolina St 1.47 Reminds of former Giants Justin Tuck
Those sites have Mayfield 1, 2, and 3. They also have Darnold 3, 1, and 2. Which means Shonka must think they haven't studied film or watched too many highlights on YouTube.
We are still 8 days away. How much will the media's perception of these QBs and where they might be going change over the next 8 days? It seems to have moved a lot in the last week. Any thoughts where we will be early next week? Will we have clarity on where things are going ir will be worrying watching each of the 1st 3 picks? My guess is we will be biting our nails until our pick is in.
Two things happen this close to the draft. Things start to leak out about who is going #1 and possibly #2, so all the talking heads and mocks start to reflect that. Second, people want to get in that off the wall hot take to create click bait for their site. The more outlandish the prediction and the more scathing the review of a sought after prospect the more likely people are to read it.
It is possible that we might see the browns sign the 1st pick early bringing more clarity to our position. But likely not more than a day early. I cannot recall the last 1st pick to sign early?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2008/12/15/most-likely-to-succeed-malcolm-gladwell From the guy who was in love with Chase Daniel and Joey Harrington. .
That used to happen in the past before the rookie cap was a thing, but now days most of those contracts have very little wiggle room and little insentive to work on early. Its also been rumored that the NFL does not want teams signing early or announcing early so that Draft night keeps the drama. Its all about the draft becoming a viewing product as much as bulding teams at NFL headquarters.
I think Allen has a quicker release and is more athleatic. I see similar issues with processing the game , both pre and post snap, and accuracy though.
Really interesting read. I can't see the NFL ever "lowering its standards" the way the article suggested teachers doing, but it was a great discussion on the psychological aspect of scouting these guys, and how in some ways, you just won't know until they are actually doing the job.
FYI: I posted this same article in the "Which QB Has The Lowest Floor" thread yesterday. It's amazing how varied "expert" opinions can be, and how off base some can be. The article that Joe posted in the New Yorker is a good example. Shonka is quoted as saying how much he liked Chase Daniel and Joey Harrington, and yet neither amounted to anything. It's hard to understand how someone who has studied players so in depth over the years, and then gets to watch so much film, can miss that badly. I don't know what the problem is, but I suspect a large component of whether a QB succeeds or fails lies in their mental make up which scouts like Shonka don't really get to examine. For example, to use perhaps an extreme case, Manziel had great measurables, aside from his height, but it was likely due to his "craziness" for lack of a better word, that made him fail. What's surprising in his case is how Cleveland never saw this aspect of him despite their own analysis. As to Shonka's assessments, I think he's too harsh, but I do agree with the basic conclusions he draws. Darnold has a lot of things to fix, and I really think he should've stayed in school another year. Allen too has major flaws, mainly rooted in his slow processing of information which will kill him when he plays at pro speeds. I hope we pass on both, and take Rosen or Mayfield.
Good read, Joe. I know we completely disagree on who the best QB is this year, I appreciate the info. BTW: Malcolm Gladwell has written some really interesting books, one of which, the Tipping Point, has a lot of great, counter-intuitive, ideas.
Just consider how you would prepare for a job interview. You're not going to show up unshaven, hair uncut in months, in your not recently washed sweatpants and football Jersey. You're going to aim to look sharp, and talk sharp. You're going to present the best you for all to see. In the case of prospective NFL athletes, they have millions of dollars on the line. There are agents coaching them and providing support, as the agents themselves stand to earn a cut of those millions. These guys are presenting their best self as seen through the eyes of professionals who've been around the league for a long time and know how to tailor a player's image to appear authentic and affable. There are very few job interviews that are more heavily publicly scrutinized than the NFL draft. The cameras are rolling, and the players know everyone is watching. What is in their head IS the X factor. How can anyone know that Tom Brady would have the most relentless work ethic the league has seen in the past 15 years? From a scouts perspective, they likely hear on a daily basis how wonderful all of these prospects are from those they get to talk to. The signal to noise ratio must be ridiculous working in that profession. It is likely easier to identify the problem prospects than the truly great ones. None of us know the real answer to this. The best QB may be in the 6th round of this draft, too. We don't know. I don't know if Mayfield is that guy, as much as I love what I see from him in every way that is accessible to me. In my opinion, if Mayfield, Rosen, Darnold, Jackson, or Allen fail at the NFL level, it isn't because of their talent. It is because of the machine in their head. Same was true for Geno Smith, and all the rest who don't find success with their innate gifts.
