Watched the tape, here's what I saw: 1:27 - Scrambles to the left, good throw to left sideline, receiver drops it. Ball placed where only he could get it. 2:08 - Looks left, throws to the middle for completion. 2:18 - Looks to the right, then throws left, complete. 2:28 - Goes thru 3+ reads but no one open and takes the sack 3:17 - Multiple reads, finds no one, scrambles to the right looking upfield, and finally runs t for first down. 3:57 - Multiple reads, stays in pocket, no one open, runs straight ahead for a couple yards. 5:19 - Drops back, looks right then throws left for completion. 5:42 - PA, looks to right, pocket collapses, scrambles to left and throws left, completion 5:55 - PA, rolls right, looks to the middle, throws right over top of defender 6:25 - PA, looks left, throws middle for TD 6:43 - Looks to the right, throws to the middle, completion 7:15 - Looks to the right, rolls left, throws left, TD. I did see him staring down receivers, but also saw him looking them off. He used the pocket quite a bit, and rolled to his left, not always to his right, as Allen usually does. I don't know if he didn't throw back across the field because he couldn't - as you imply - or because he didn't have to because he found guys open without having to make that type of risky pass. To summarize, I can see some potential issues with his game, but more positives on balance.
Allen does it too, never said otherwise but it's more undstandbale with his o-line. it's "david carr syndrome" just becuase Allen has the same fault, doens't mean mayfield doens't. Niether QB is worthy of the 3rd pick so not sure why you keep bringing up allen. I want rosen on the jets.
I also saw a guy that almost never forces plays under duress for INT's. I saw a guy that got the ball in the EZ and led a team for a W AT OSU. I saw a guy that moves around exceptionally well and has great vision all around the field. I saw a guy that makes reads ahead of time to make good plays, and then makes plays after the play breaks down too because he's aware of everything and has the ability to anticipate things ahead of time. I saw a guy that throws well while on the run. People need to find a better a game nitpick. That was a bad example
the 2:28, 3:57, and 7:15 I agreed with it. you also missed 1:15 where he did it as well for a short completion. 1:27 pocket bailout (as you said) 2:08 look off 1 read (as you said) 2:18 lok off 1 read (as you said) 3:17 bails out with no pressure 5:19 stares WR down 5:42 Bails out 5:55 Bails out (could be by design though) 6:25 stares down WR (follows him left to over the middle never looked off) 6:43 look of 1 read in other words, outside the 4 i pointed out, The rest were bail outs or look off 1 reads. in othr words he didnt' play form the pocket, or he knew where he was going with the ball pre-snap. the look off was pre-determined. it's not the same as reading a defense and looking off a safety. I fi know i'm throwing a slant right and i start looking left, there are no decisions to be made, in the NFL he needs to play from the pocket and make those decisions and only 4 plays out of 35+ did he show that and none were completed passes downfield. it's a huge red flag in his game and If i can see it that easy, imagine how bellichick can see it and design a defense to make him look silly.
I saw a guy who rarely played from the pocket. A guy who rarely read the defense, a guy who didn't make many "NFL" throws (deep outs, curls, back shoulders, skinny post, short slant) , a guy who didn't use the middle of the field much. While it's true you can't knock a QB for executing the plays calls, especially when they plays work, it still doesn't show any film that's usable in the NFL level. Mayfield is playing "street ball" that doens't fly in the NFL
If you don't think he reads D's then you don't what you saw. That TD over the middle was anomaly I guess. I a bet you're a Deshean Watson guy. Knew he was a baller. That 'street ball' cliche' is nonsense. As is the unusable film bs.
What really impresses me about Mayfield on film are: 1. How he always keeps his eyes downfield despite pressure. 2. How quickly he processes information. Probably the number one attribute in an NFL QB. 3. How fast he gets the ball out when he sees something. 4. How he almost places the ball in the best ball placement position away from the defender. If zip is needed he adds zip. If he needs to loft it over a defender he uses touch. 5. The accuracy is pretty amazing. 6. Throwing from so many different angles and keeping accuracy. 7. His ability to process and throw on the run. 8. Love his use of the middle of the field. 9. Great discipline staying behind the line and not running. 10. I love watching him progress through reads and looking off and setting up defenders. He is so advanced and smart. 11. Calmness under pressure. He does not force bad plays. What scares me: 1. He spends so much time out of the pocket. It makes me wonder if he can work and survive at the NFL level. The NFL is still about playing in the pocket I have questions on his ability to transition from the streetball ping pong styel he plays. 2. I wonder how well his play style will hold up at the NFL. He will take a lot more hits and he will have a much harder time running around like he does extending plays.
You'd have to be more specific on the play then the "TD up the middle" if you want me to comment on the play. That game i seen 4 plays where he played from the pocket and read the defense. 1 was a short completion, 1 was a great pass for a TD (albiet a short one) 1 was a sack, and 1 was a 1 yard run up the middle to avoid a sack. That's not a lot of "NFL" plays to look at in that game and the few one's there were, were a mixed bag. I'm not going to fault him for sacks because you can't tell who was open or not and sometimes taking a sack is the right play. and the TD was a great play but i'm not banking the 3rd overall pick on 1 great play. I can pull plays here and there like that from any prospect to "prove a point" but that's why you have to look at the whole picture (full game and context) and not just plays here and there
I didn't overlook or ignore the sections you noted, but I do draw a different interpretation. Where you conclude that he's "locking onto a receiver", I would say, why not throw to the first guy if he's open? Making extra reads for the sake of making extra reads isn't useful. And if these were designed, predetermined look offs, so what? He still executed them. And I disagree again...he DOES look downfield, even when he leaves the pocket. From what I've seen both Allen and Darnold leave the pocket more often and more quickly than Mayfield. I agree with what Noam said, as far as "red flags" with Mayfield: What scares me: 1. He spends so much time out of the pocket. It makes me wonder if he can work and survive at the NFL level. 2. I wonder how well his play style will hold up at the NFL. He will take a lot more hits and he will have a much harder time running around like he does extending plays. Can Mayfield learn to play from the pocket more, and use his scrambling more judiciously? If not, his career my be cut short by the pounding he'll take. There's a reason that pro teams prefer pocket savvy QBs: The defenses don't allow for much successful scrambling as a rule. Exceptions like the Eagles system are rare at this point, although I could see it becoming more widespread. However, their system is possible because of a great OL that can run and pass block equally well, and excellent RBs that take the pressure off the QB because of the threat they represent. The Jets currently don't have any of that. If they want to go that way, and draft Mayfield this year, they're going to have to find their OL and RBs - QUALITY ones, not cast offs - next year in FA and/or the draft, so Mayfield represents a multi-year process, unlike Rosen.
as i said i'm not going to ding him for executing the play or for his 1st read being open, the main point was the lack of film proving he can do what is expected from an NFL QB and sounds liek you drew the same conclusion, the film just isn't there. is it mayfields fault? no, does it mean he 100% can't do it or learn it? no. But it does mean that we literally have no idea if he can or how he'd look trying and that is a tough pill to swallow on the 3rd overall pick you are betting the future of your franchise on. when you couple the lack of film, mixed with the immaturity, the height, the small hands it's just too many red flags for such a high pick. yes he does when he leaves the pocket, he doens't do it from the pocket though, that is the red flag. Allen's o-line was awful, he was running for his life most plays not to mention i'm not even discussing other Qbs here so why the need to bring the other prospects into it? just because mayfield has a flaw doens't mean it's justified becuase another QB shares the same flaw. That's why I'm very high on rosen, all the film points to him doing NFL things and having no flaws in his game really. he's not as impressive as a play extender as the other 3, and his arm isn't special like Allens, but he is a safe pick filmwise. I'm actually coming to prefer rosen over darnold the more i keep watching film (because i haven't stopped watching film on anyone except jackson of the top 5 QBs) Notice how you always ding darnold and allen in arguments but never rosen? because all his dings are "off the field" and IMO overstated. I think rosen is the man for the jets and those are huge red flags. I'm not into taking a flyer at 3 where it kills the franchise, it's not "disliking mayfield" it's the fact mayfields film doens't prove he can play at an NFL level, it doens't mean he can't ever, but the lack of it is too much of a risk for me to be on board. If i'm going to take a risk i'd much rather take that risk with Allen or even jackson (if we can trade back for more picks) then to take the risk on mayfield. At least Allen has an elite arm which is a known quantity. even in todays NFL not many QBs can throw a ball like Allen can. he has big ben like upside. Sadly the more and more I think about it, the more i see this class of QBs as overrated. If rosen isn't there at 3, i'd much rather trade back and reach for jackson in the middle of the round and get those picks back. we could even do a 2 for and grab another QB later on. it's not like we need to keep hack or petty on anyway
Agree. I see the same things; all your points in the first list particularly. The second list are the obvious negatives that are part of any scouting report and what teams have to analyze, and determine if he fits what they want to do. Also if they see what we see in the top list but with much better insight than anybody on this forum. One thing for sure is he has balls and I really doubt the NFL is too big for him to adjust to as far as it's demands. That is much easier said than done. Can he adjust at the line of scrimmage in order to compete remains to be seen. The guys that can't get to the point where they're competing and not thinking are the first to fall.
To be fair I believe Urban Meyer said something to the effect that this was the best game he has ever seen a QB play.
I don’t think “bailing out” is a negative every time. Some of the top QBs in the league break the pocket on a regular basis. Aaron Rodgers routinely gets to the perimeter before throwing.
On balance I agree with your post here, and fully agree on Rosen. I'm all in on him. But while I agree that Mayfield has serious questions, I also am sure that Macc is hellbent on taking a QB, and he couldn't have possibly been certain that Rosen (or whoever he thinks is his #1) will be there at 3, so it stands to reason that he's okay with at least 3 if not all 4 of the top guys. In that sense, it's a strong possibility that somebody other than Rosen is the pick, and of the other 3 I'm most comfortable with Mayfield despite these questions. I understand you're not so we'll have to agree to disagree on that.
I never said it was, that wasn't the point of the post. The point of the post is the lack of film of mayfield standing tall in the pocket, surveying the field, and delivering on the throw. Very little tape of him exists doing exactly that. that's what scares me. it's not a knock on him as a player, it's a knock on the lack of film of him doing NFL QB stuff
the assumption is, mac has to like a 3rd guy. We assume he likes rosen and darnold, but there has to be a 3rd one he'd like for an "in case of emergency break glass" situation if rosen and darnold go 1 and 2. However he could feel that rosen or darnold will 100% be there at 3. the best thing for us, is for the browns to take allen. However NFL GMs have been caught with their pants down before. He could only like 2 and has a hot tip the giants are taking a non QB and not trading out meaning that 3 guarentees him one of those 2. Nothing is for certain though. the only thing we really know for certain is cleveland is taking a QB 1st overall. with that said, I'm not against anyone preferring mayfield or allen if those are the 2 options we are left with. While I think allen is better, We are all just assholes guessing and i wouldn't be happy with either at 3 but i'd be less pissed with Allen at 3 then mayfield. But everyone is entitled to their opinion on it. I'm just hoping cleveland takes allen or the giants pass on a QB. I'd really love to get rosen and i'd be pretty stoked with darnold as well. All we know is that mac is going to call the name of a QB next week and no matter what the name is, some people will be happy and others pissed, but i'd hope we all root for whoever it is.
