I have seen that throw and it is incredible where he is able to put that ball. Doesn't get any tighter of a window than that.
We don't know (as it's been stated before by several people not just me) if baker is actually reading a defense or just doing a "canned" look one way throw another since it's always a 1 read throw. Rarely do you see him actually survey the field unless he bails out of the pocket. It could be called plays to lok one way and throw the other with no real thought put into it. As far as projects, outside of rosen, all the other Qbs are pretty big projects. none of them are 1st year starters in the NFL save for rosen. Rosen coming in here could truly compete for the job as a rookie with Mccown and Teddy. Any other QB we take including darnold, would have to sit for a year minimum.
It comes back to the "petty" problem. One scout said in all of pettys college career, he only found 25 throws that were "NFL" throws. I've seen even less then that form mayfield. that throw is a great one, but i've seen all the top 5 Qbs in the draft make that throw. the question is can they do it several times a game, and not once a year.
Comparing him to Petty is not quite fair. He is much better and his tape shows it. Talking about his lack of NFL throws compared to Rosen and Darnold is completely fair. It is one of my main knocks on Baker. His style of offense and the overall weak Big 12 defenses make it really hard to figure out if he will translate to the NFL. Not saying he couldn't, it just seems Darnold and Rosen will translate easier and are safer picks.
I love Namath, but a comparison of 7.7 to 8.2 and 8.1 to 8.3 is not statistically significant imo. To me the real deal is if the guy can WIN and win a SB..whether surrounded by average or above average personnel. Who cares how many more passes Brees completed?? what was the RESULT?
Great Post..especially for the guys who think you are winning a SB drafting defense for 8 years or BPA..Safeties back to back .smh.I am ready to heave my lunch
No, it's not always a 1 read throw. Watch the tape,,,he goes through progressions, unlike Allen who DOES usually make 1 read throws, or he quickly bails out and begins running/scrambling, and if he does then throw it's usually under duress and not very accurate. And if the Jets take Mayfield, I think they'll tailor their offense around him and get him playing his first season.
i'm not comparing him to petty, he's obviously a better prospect then petty, I was just saying the lack of NFL type plays on him, is comparable to petty. It's a scary thing to ignore when picking 3rd overall. If mayfield was being considered as a 2nd round flyer like hack, i could care less. But whoever we draft in 10 days, cost us the 6th overall pick plus 3 2nd round picks. That's a tough pill to swallow with so little film proving they can do what we need them to do
I did go through lots of film. most of the time it was turn and fire, or turn and bail out. Allen has the same issues, but i've seen allen work the pocket more keeping his eyes downfield. Both have a ton of stuff to work on. Neither are worth the 3rd overall pick. I'm really hoping rosen falls into out laps. He looks like a pro QB already with very little work needed. I'm almost convinced at this point i'd rather have jackson over mayfield and allen. He needs a ton of work too, but his upside is ridiculous and his legs will go a long way in buying him time in the NFL. he can make things happen with his legs none of the other Qbs can and that's scary and i've also seen him make a ton of good throws.
Agreed, but all that matters is the production the Jets get out of the #3 pick. So we will see come training camp, the 2018 season, 2019 season and finally see if the pick was right around the 2020 season. I, you, and the entire Jets fan base hope it is!
It's significant because Namath did it on a 50% completion percentage while Brees did it at over 70%. The point was Namath didn't need to be as accurate as Brees to move the team the same distance per pass attempt because he blew him away on the distance per completion. Brees's great completion percentage didn't move his team 1 yard further on his passing attempts than Namath did with a huge statistical difference in completion percentage. If you actually take into account that Namath did it outside in the wind, with rules intended to reduce the passing game and the ball spotted on the sidelines it's a freaking miracle what Namath did.
I dunno. Back in the old NFL/AFL days, they did a lot of deep passing. May have something to do with the average per pass attempt.
i randomly picked a video of one of his best games only 4 times in his 35 throws did he survey the field from the pocket 1:15 completion 2:28 sack 3:58 took off for 1 yard run 7:18 TD pass none were completed downfield. also notice the big time gap? in the 1st half where they only scored 3 points, compared to the 2nd half where the offense was simplified down to quick throws and roll outs every time. less PA as well. he stared down the receivers when he didn't have PA, the PA was his essential fake out of the safeties not looking off. Mayfield doens't like to use the pocket, he always rolls out and most often to his right (like most right handed Qbs for obvious reasons) That's not going to fly in the NFL, he isn't athletic enough to pull it off at the NFL level and NFL defenses will roll coverage knowing he won't throw back across the field
You always investigate hard, but you always have one statement that sticks me the wrong way lol. You said he doesn't like to use the pocket, but i'm not entirely sure what that means. Do you mean that he leaves the pocket before he has to? If so, I don't agree. He does move around though for sure, but usually it is to find open receivers.
Granted he has awesome protection on this play, but it does highlight his vision. Looking short right then deep middle. Moving to his left on this play. It's only one play because I don't have the ample time needed to find more examples lol. They are out there though. He definitely goes through progressions and I see him as a player who can learn this quickly.
The best QBs work the pocket, they know how to slide in it and step up and keep their eyes downfield ready to throw, mayfield doens't like to do that at all, he bails out instead of sliding in the pocket or stepping up when pressure comes, costing him the ability/opportunity to make a big completion downfield. it's a whole new skill he will need to learn in the NFL. the only QB in this draft that can play outside the pocket in the NFL is jackson but even then, he needs to learn how to play inside it as well
Exactly right. If you're throwing the ball down the field you're completion percentage is high but you're not getting either yards after catch or throwing the ball deep down the field it doesn't make you an elite QB in any era. It makes you a nice game manager. The reason I used Brees as an example is he is a lock HOF QB and has both the YPA and completion percentage that match up near the top in both categories for his era. Mayfield has both also. Allen doesn't have either. Big red flag for Allen. You can make a case that if he was really throwing the ball down field and had good YPA even though his completion percentage was low it doesn't matter that his completion percentage is low. The fact that he isn't matters a lot. Of course what a guy does in little league doesn't mean he won't mature into something else in the bigs. Allen and Mayfield are going to be drafted for what they can grow into at the next level not what they did in College.
Couldn't agree more with that. All these guys have to learn that, but that isn't something they emphasize in the college game. At least from what I know.
I broke down that whole game here http://forums.theganggreen.com/threads/baker-mayfield-vs-texas-every-throw-broken-down.90290/
