I mean i could say the same form you. Both QBs have plays where they do it well and plays where they don't, but you have this absolute thought allen can't do it when he does, or mayfield does it all the time, when he doesn't. You fail to see the grey areas I'm not a self proclaimed expert, I'm just a fan, but at least i acknowledge that. I also am a jet fan and want what's best for our franchise, not looking to be right or make a quick buck with a click bait article If you can find me an expert that's always right, i'll be happy to listen, but as long as they are all wrong quite a bit (and they are) again it comes down to what i said a million times over. all of us including myself, other posters, experts, and NFL GMs, are just assholes taking out best guess and are likely to be wrong. I acknowledge that, the sad thing is others can't see their own flaws. There is a good chance i'm flat out wrong, but others think they can't be wrong and that's where the eyes fool them. they double down on everything and will write it off or disappear when it's all said and done 3 years from now and we know who was right and who wasn't.
This is quite the bailout response. I understand why you wouldn't want to click a link that completely supports a theory you disagree with though.
and full game clips cut down to the throws only. Highlights give you a ceiling. it's their best plays. If highlights look mediocre, what do you think actual games are going to show?
because all it is , is another opinion. I'm not saying people can't have other opinions. I'm saying there are no facts, just opinions. If they were facts, nobody would ever make a wrong pick in the draft. there would be no busts. There would be no back and forth either. You can't argue about the world being round, we know it is. It's a fact. In the case of prospects, it's all 100% opinion
Something else to consider here, and I have NOT done this, but I certainly hope the Jets have and it would be great if some of you have- - look at their incomplete passes and when these QBs do miss, where are their passes going? You want to find a QB who misses low. An incomplete pass too low in the dirt is way better than a incomplete pass too high that can be picked off. If you watch Brady he always misses low. Rodgers too. Geno Smith & Sanchez always missed high. I heard where some teams look very carefully at this and it has a lot to do with how they evaluate guys. so what say you TGG? anyone look at this with the QB prospects?
The only 2 I've really watched an ass ton on is mayfield and allen and both always miss high and in mayfields case also behind. I could go back and watch more of darnold and rosen to see where their misses are. Mayfield misses high over the middle a lot which is what i pointed out from watching the film. when he tries to gun it, balls often sail on him. also when the throws form the pocket over the middle you see a lot of "jump throws" or throws form his tippy toes.
that's false though, it's still interpretation. whats an open window? what's a close window? how does one decide the difficultly of the throw? how does one decide if ti was in a bad spot or not? I've had people argue obvious bad throws as good throws then disappear when i broke it down further explaining it. I also have yet to see anyone here actually break down a video like I did. If they did i'd be happy to read that thread.
I have not seen such a stat but it would be helpful. One such type stat that is helpful like this in the NFL is dropped interceptions. For example in 2010 Sanchez had less turnovers than normal but that year he not only led the league in dropped INTS but he led it by 9 over the 2nd place guy. He also had 9 fumbles that year but only only lost. If you looked at his base stats he looked better than his normal in turnovers but if you looked at dropped INTs and fumbles recovered you could say if he was just the 2nd luckiest QB in dropped INTs then he would have been at his normal historical level of 26 turnovers per year. I read an article at the end of the 2010 season saying don't believe the stats on Sanchez he is very bad much because of the predictive value of the dropped INTs and also becuase of the types of situations he was throwing in. Very low pressure throws where he would not be exposed often to a pass rush. The article predicted very bad things for Sanchez in 2011 when the training wheels would come off. It was dead on. But yes, I would like to see a percentage of bad throws as to how bad they are. I have seen a lot of people post that Mayfield when he misses will sail his throws high. But I have not seen any statistical data. The closest thing I have seen is data that defines incompletions based on fault. But that does not really show how bad the bad throws really are.
Good post. These are just tools. The problem with analytics in this case is it's trying to make a projection to throws at the next level without having next level competition and schemes in place. It's a simulation and simulations are often way off because the data isn't really that good or comparable. I'm going to make a guess that in most cases NFL grading is more similar than we think. A good GM isn't really using analytics when they look at tape but we assume they are coming to the same conclusion as analytics would. I would bet that most if not every NFL GM has Barkley and Chubb 1 2 based on their grading. The CBA that was negotiated in 2011 makes betting on a 1st round bust relatively low cost. The flip side to that is if you hit on a great player you have him at a bargain price for 4 years. If it happens to be a QB it gives you a window to quickly build around a low cost QB and actually go from a bad team to competitive very fast. There's huge pressure to take a QB. My guess is Allen and Mayfield would normally not be considered 1st round picks. Allen based on tape and Mayfield based on size and a couple of incidents. Looking at this rationally I can't see why Allen is a better prospect than Kizer was last year. It would have been interesting if Kizer had stayed in school. I think he would be in the conversation right now for the No. 1 pick. Pretty interesting that Green Bay traded a pretty good player for him after watching NFL tape and seeing what they had behind Rodgers. Mayfield is definitely moving up boards because of analytics. Maybe to No. 1? Is that any dumber than moving up to No. 1 based on arm strength? The nice thing about these arguments is we get to see the results. What gets lost in this argument is the idea that QB's are so valuable and rare that value no longer matters. What's lost in the analytics of comparing one QB to the other is football is still a 53 man game with a salary cap. Playing the analytics game without playing money ball is going to kill a lot of GM's.
So many of these questions could be answered if you just watched the film. Again, I know why you aren't, but it kind of makes it hard to have any kind of discussion when one person only wants to believe what they want to believe.
Sanchez usually missed high when he threw outside the hashmarks or deep down the middle. He usually missed way low on anything short/intermediate in the middle of the field. I've never seen another QB screw up in quite the ways he screwed up. The longer he was here, the worse his footwork became, and he started missing more often and by greater distance.
exactly why stats can't be taken as fact. look at 2:56 form this video, should have been an easy INT but was dropped Now look at 3:59 form this video, should have been a 37 yard TD on a great throw but was dropped statistically speaking, both passes go down as an incompletion, but realistically speaking one was a great throw that should have been a TD, and the other was a poor throw that should have been an INT
I've watched so much film on allen and mayfield it's beyond sickening to think the time I wasted with it. I'd love to see YOU break down any game, hell you can pick the game, on both allen and mayfield as i've done instead of parroting someone else's opinion. I'd read your assesment, i'm not going to read an assesment of clickbait for money
There is nobody here who thinks they can't be wrong, that is a narrative you tell yourself in order to feel better about your cherry picking of data points. You believe in the purity of your arguments, if not their fallabity. Part of what makes a person intelligent is the ability to comprehend a wide variety of information and sources, and the fusion of all that information to generate an analysis. When the analysis is wrong, it is then on you to understand WHY it is wrong. Your arguments get more kickback than others who don't like Mayfield because you refuse to acknowledge anything that challenges the purity of your anti Mayfield point of view. The ability to see and weigh both the pros and the cons fairly and with an open mind will give you a context that is more consistently close to the truth. None of us have the ability to be consistently right because none of has access to all of the individuals involved. Even if we had access to one or a handful of individuals, it isn't enough for a comprehensive evaluation of everyone, comparatively speaking. This applies not only to fans, but the majority of analysts as well. Take Rosen for example, it is pretty much universally accepted at this point that he's the most "ideal" prospect in this class from a pocket passing perspective. We have some third hand information that alerts us to the possibility that what is in his heart and mind, as evaluated by those who have knowledge of him, may be a problem. But it is information, not knowledge. A hypothesis, not a fact. That is why no one can be right all the time, including the experts. In deriding the experts for this, you miss out on all their experience and wisdom which 99% of the time is likely greater than your own. You can listen to any and all experts without taking their views as gospel, but rather, more information to help you form your own opinion. None of us has the time or resources to account for every single possible bit of information. That is why we are fans, rather than people making a living doing this stuff. Understanding that, you can have reasonable arguments with reasonable people you disagree with. But when you publicly bury your head in the sand, expect to not be seen as reasonable. To your defense, there are some "experts" who just flat out suck. I totally get ignoring those (the minority). Here is an example (it's a highlight video but the beginning is an "expert" take):
I have not once pointed to any data so your whole statement here is either 1) illogical or 2 ) directed at the wrong person. I don't have an anti-anyone view. the fact you see it like that, is a poor conditioned result that being pro for someone (and it's not allen, i'm pro rosen and darnold) means you have to be con someone else. it's a very poor view of things. You can be pro-someone without being con-someone else. My arguments get more kickback, because they are mine and mine alone. My opinion base don my eyes. nothing else. I don't post long stats or links of people agreeing with me, because i can care less about articles. I asked others to make their own assesment in the same manor, but nobody has stepped up. If you want to make a thread breaking down film with your own eyes, i'd be happy to read it. same goes for all the posters here. I can care less about what writers say, which is ironic people here even go to writers and such after hating on mannish and Francesca on a weird obsessive level. yes you can, but the thing when it comes to play, is why should i "trust someone's opinion" when i can watch it myself? In terms of personality you are correct, interviews can be tricky. you can't get a gauge on someone's personality without knowing them, however it hasn't stopped people here form attacking mine or rosen's as well as loving mayfields so essentially you are saying that should all be written off?
Serious question since this thread is 68 pages long. Did you post any of your film review for us to see? I saw you cherry pick two throws in #1354, which someone could easily do in reverse. I would love to read/see your analysis of film breakdown.
Bro...these are just two plays from their college careers. I get your point...both plays are incomplete, but it doesn't defeat the analytics done on their completion percentages. Mayfield threw more accurately and completed more tight window throws than Allen. Fact. Not made up.
