Is that in order of least likely to bust? Because Jackson has some of the highest upside of anyone in his draft if a team can give him a box for all those tools, but he's also incredibly raw. Like Allen, I see him as a boom or bust prospect.
Yea I don’t know that Jackson should be on a “least likely to bust” list at all unless you’re listing out the entire draft class. He’s got massive bust potential. That being said, I’d still take a shot on him in the late first over Allen in the early first.
Yeah I think Jackson has the greatest toolbox to potentially grow with. Teams have soured on QBs like him because they get hurt with such frequency that their development so often doesn't pan out. If he pans out to be on an equivalent level with Tyrod Taylor, then it's a successful, if disappointing pick. His range for bust and success is tremendous. The team that takes him has to have a solid vision for what to do with him.
If your talking late first its a team that can let him sit for a couple years, and that would be an ideal situation for Jackson, or Allen. Earlyfirst is too risky for a guy that needs a red shirt type year.
I would think he can be a better verision of Taylor if he develops. Taylor is far too limited in the Intermediateand deep passing game. Jackson can do it all with that arm.
What's great about Taylor is that he's effective at everything. He has no limitations. The problem with Taylor that has kept him out of the upper echelon of NFL QBs is that he's inconsistent. You see the flashes of greatness, followed by mediocrity. I too think Jackson can be even better; closer to Michael Vick dynamism, but he has to stay healthy, and that is a tall order for any QB that uses their legs. At the same time, if you try to make him a pure pocket passer, then you are denying him what makes him a great QB. As a pure pocket passer, he doesn't rate with the rest of this class. But using his legs to keep a defense unbalanced he is a tremendous threat.
My Top 4 QBs: Josh Rosen Baker Mayfield Sam Darnold Lamar Jackson Brief reasoning (Sorry, I feel like we should be able to all add a few notes to the end of our rankings): Josh Rosen- If he didn't have the injury concerns, he would be the consensus #1 overall pick in my opinion. Baker Mayfield- Tons of starting experience, has great vision, and has terrific accuracy even though his percentage is inflated. Height=non issue. Sam Darnold- Lacks college experience and had a lot of INT's and fumbles. If he can learn to protect the ball better, he will be absolutely fantastic. Lamar Jackson- His elusiveness and play-making ability are undeniable. He will need to sit and learn for a year or so.
Josh Rosen - Prodigal son, enough said. Doesn't have the highest ceiling, but by far the highest floor with a really good ceiling. Sam Darnold - Big Ben / Andrew Luck like potential; will need time to develop. Highest ceiling. Lamar Jackson - He's Vick (not as fast, just as elusive) with Russel Wilson like traits (throwing on the run; strong arm). An OC with an open mind will get this guy to be one of the best dual threat QBs in the league (maybe history). He can be better then Watson. 2nd highest ceiling. This QB showed the highest level of growth in college. Josh Allen - Elite arm talent; great physical size; slow at processing the defense. Needs the game to slow down for him big time.
Rosen Darnold Mayfield Jackson / Allen but I'm not truly smitten with anyone really and wish the JETS stayed at 6
Agree with everything you said. Yeah I just think the worst case scenario with a high first round pick is a bust. Even if a player never becomes a HOF'er or a FQB. Need those first round picks to be better than average contributors so I stacked them in what I think is the "least likely to bust" order. Not necessarily who has the highest upside etc. Just least likely to be a wasted pick.
Darnold Rosen Mayfield Tebow Allen I don’t think Allen is a bad QB. I do know that the Jets will ruin whatever upside he has.
1) Darnold (10% bust chance) 2) Rosen (25% bust chance) 3) Allen (50% bust chance) 4) Jackson (65% bust chance) 5) Mayfield (80% bust chance) I also like Ferguson as a sleeper in the 5th round. I think he can go on to have a decent career in the NFL
for the record, i would have stayed at 6 and picked lamar jackson rosen jackson/mayfield darnold/allen
it's funny, my very first eary mock draft i had us trading down with the bills to 21 (back then we had the 6th and they had the 21st and 22nd picks) and taking jackson
