My take on 2018 QBs

Well it certainly takes quit some intellect to even fathom a search for it

 

Thanks. It's amazing what you can find on the internet these days.

 

No evidence that these would've all been tipped or picked. These are pro throws and absolute completions at the NFL level. He has uncanny accuracy, a quick release, and a very strong arm. People are acting like he's 5'9 or 5'10. He's over 6'0. These throws are not going to be all batted away

 

Mayfield is 6'0 3/8 and I believe Wilson is 5'10 3/8. Mayfield is about 2 full inches taller than Wilson. That makes a difference. He's not in the same class as Wilson height wise

 

You can't read. It's little wonder your reasoning powers are nil. I said that it doesn't matter where he was ranked last year, and it doesn't. It only means something to someone who is completely lacking in understanding about the draft and player analysis, i.e., you. Have you noticed that you're the only poster talking about this nonsense? This year is all that matters. Get that through your thick head.

Do you not realize that players rise and fall during seasons and the offseason? Do you not realize that the "expert analysts" that you love so dearly and whose every word you cling or like it's the gospel truth, are wrong more than they are right, and what they think means nothing? Keep track this season of what your experts say and then see where players actually go in the draft, and then make note of who develops in the NFL and who doesn't. Maybe you'll learn something.

 

Rockinz only loves boom or bust picks. He doesn't like safe picks.

 

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

Ya and your analysis of players is right up there with Ron Wolf

Just so you learn something most “experts” have Mayfield as the 4th/5th QB in the draft. Also FYI Allen is most likely going 1 overall so all your arguments comparing Mayfield to Allen is not valid unless you think you know more than nfl GMs and scouts

You fall in love with with prospects that are going to be terrible and it’s obvious that you don’t watch much college football. Drew Brees is Mayfields ceiling I think you would agree? Drew Brees came from a spread offence and was a 2nd round prospect so why in the world would Mayfields draft stock be tremendously higher (top 3 pick)? If you can answer that I might actually read some of the hogwash you post.

 

Wilson has a stronger arm and is better in terms of improvising though

 

Hopefully they take Allen at 2 if they do move up.

 

That would be some haul.

 

There are always choices. They have a pretty good team already, so perhaps could afford to give up that many picks better than some other teams; still, that would be a LOT to give up, and would hurt. I think it will come down to who they like and if he's still available. I don't think they'll pull the trigger on such a trade if their #4 choice at QB is there unless they like all 4 equally, and they may not even pull the trigger for their #3 choice. They could always take the BPA with their #1 pick, or trade it or another pick or picks this year for picks next year and target a QB next year

I don't think a season is ever a complete waste, at least it shouldn't be if the GM/HC are worth a damn. There are almost always rookies to develop/evaluate, and one can seek to work on things that have been weaknesses, to learn and grow, and become better at their jobs. If a team is tanking or is trying but losing most of their games, they can try different things, different lineups, different combinations of players, give young players a longer look than usual, etc.

 

That's why it will be completely hilarious when the Giants don't want to trade. The Bills are coming off a playoff year, yet rebuilding anyways as if it was a normal year for them. That organization has no clue and makes the Jets look brilliant in comparison. If they wasted their last season, it's because they chose to abandon ship rather than build around the factors that got them to the playoffs and take the next step.

Also the Bills don't HAVE to get to 2 to get a QB. They can likely trade into #4 by way of getting to #6 first. It's not like their only choice to to leapfrog the Jets and give a king's ransom. If they gave up THAT much just to bone us, then it will be fun watching them have another near 20 year playoff drought.

Chances are the Bills can stand pat at 12 and end up with Jackson. That wouldn't be too bad, in fact it's probably way better than giving up 4 firsts and more for someone that could be a bust.

 

For those of you doubting/knocking Mayfield because you say all his WR are always wide open, he doesn't make NFL throws, etc., ad nauseum, consider the following.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/22/baker-mayfield-advance-analytics-nfl-draft-oklahoma-pff

For some reason this site would not allow me to embed a video clip from SI, but the link is above where you can go and listen to it yourself if you doubt my claims of what the video says. In this video, it says:

Mayfield is the best QB in this draft class. No one has been as consistent or has efficient he has. He has the top 2 grades they've ever given to a QB and 3 of the top 5. Every year he makes fewer negatively-rated throws than any other QB. Last season, Baker had the 8th highest percentage of NFL throws in the nation in terms of attempts and by far he had the highest grade on those throws.

They go on to say that while Rosen, Darnold and Allen have the tools to become very good NFL QBs, Mayfield has those tools and already is playing at an NFL level.

 

First, let me say that I have been, and still am, a big fan of Mayfield, and have him close to Rosen in my wish list for the Jets, but I need to make the same comment to you as I made to SolidGoldBowles about his bias for Allen and against Mayfield. You're focusing too much on stats that show Mayfield as the greatest QB since Sammy Baugh, but you're ignoring some things that show him to have some flaws.

For instance, in the article you posted here, is this comment:

"Ben Solak at NDT Scouting took his own look at ball placement and split all throws into two fields—clear window and tight window. In Mayfield’s 2017 season he found 68 tight windows (compared to 261 clear windows) and while Mayfield’s completion percentage dipped from 82% on clear windows to 41% on tight windows, his ball placement remained consistent. Of course, these metrics lump in all sorts of throws, from shallow crosses to screen passes to quick slants. During Part 5 of our series on Mayfield, former Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell noted the Oklahoma offense didn’t require Mayfield make some of the high-difficulty throws he’ll be asked to make on a regular basis in the NFL.

“You don’t see all the throws,” Bevell said. “And it’s hard to tell velocity from tape. You don’t see him throw that corner route from the pocket, or make very many go ball throws, or throw the deep crossing routes. There’s not enough to say if he’s good or not at that.”"

And this:

Mayfield also scores especially high on Sports Info Solutions' Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) when under pressure.

But the numbers, on their face, can be deceiving, Manocherian says. “An interesting thing we’ve learned about “Under Pressure” stats is that they often have a lot more to do with the QB’s propensity to hold the ball than it is about the offensive line,” he says.

PFF’s analysts logged 11 sacks that were all or mostly Mayfield’s fault, rather than the fault of his offensive line. That number led FBS quarterbacks last year, according to PFF. “There are some plays where he’s almost inviting pressure,” Palazzolo says. “There are a few plays where he holds the ball a little bit long and instead of making a throw within the structure of the offense he looks to make a play outside of structure a little bit too much. He will look to make a big play instead of the easy throw. That will be an adjustment for him.

Solak noted that Mayfield’s passes tend to float when he can’t set his feet, and when “bodies obstruct his throwing hallway, in which he is forced to a higher release point due to his smaller frame.

“Teams running strict timing offenses should steer clear of Mayfield”

I'm not saying that these are "fatal" flaws, or that he can't learn to adjust, in fact I believe he can, which is why I still would like to see him on the Jets...assuming they can't get Rosen. But even in the article where they say he's the best under pressure, if you go and look at his tape, and watch when he's under pressure, his accuracy drops off - his receivers often bail him out, but he's not the same QB under pressure as he is when he's got a clean pocket, or when he's running free. Again, no QB is...look at Brady when they get in his face, he becomes mortal. Now what Brady has done - and Belichick has helped him - is to figure out how to get rid of the ball quickly and nullify the pass rush, but when his receivers are covered, and the pass rush does get to him, he isn't as good. So it's not a huge knock on Mayfield if he struggles under pressure, but it's not true that "he's great under pressure" because when he was faced with pressure from Georgia he sure wasn't as good. (And yes, he was hurt, which I have pointed out many times before. Still, he rushed throws and was definitely not the same QB as these metrics "prove").

My point, NC, is that he's not as perfect as you make him out to be. Will he succeed in the NFL? Yes, I believe he will. And I believe he'll be exciting, but if he doesn't put the effort in to improving these shortcomings, AND the team he joins doesn't build their system around him, he won't succeed.

 

I disagree that I focus too much on stats. I loved Mayfield from watching him play, but I couldn't quantify all the reasons why I like him and thought he was so great. The analytics and stats I'm seeing now are simply helping me to explain and quantify why I think he's the best QB in this class. I like Rosen too, but I don't think he's nearly as good as Mayfield, and Mayfield doesn't have the health issues that Rosen does, and he has a better build that should be more able to handle hits than Rosen.

I never said that Mayfield was perfect, nor do I believe that he is. I have spoken about his need to do a better job recognizing blitzes. I have said that he will have to adjust to not hold the ball so long in the NFL because he will take a lot more big hits if he does. He will have to pick and choose his spots where he extends plays. He needs to work on his platform and not have his feet so wide apart when throwing as this causes lesser velocity and some inaccuracy. He will need to learn to take more snaps from under center and learn the drops. He will have to make adjustments for bigger DL in the NFL and tighter coverage from DBs. He also needs to work on getting his left foot pointed more straight towards the receiver so he can turn his hips more fully and get fuller torque/velocity and not rely on just his arm.

I thik that Solak is full of crap with his comment about teams running strict timing offenses should steer clear of Mayfield. That's one of his strengths and several other scouts or "experts" have said as much.

If Mayfield's ball placement remains consistent, then his completion percentage shouldn't drop, unless his placement is consistently bad, and it isn't, so that comment/statistic doesn't compute.

I have no worries or concerns about Mayfield not working or not making adjustments. He did that all through high school and college. He's not gonna stop when he gets to the NFL. If anything, Rosen is the one more likely not to work hard in the NFL, although I think he will.

 

Fair enough. I guess I overlooked the shortcomings you noted about Mayfield in previous posts, but you have to admit they were pretty drowned out by your positives. And yes, I realize that you never said he was "perfect" but that's the impression I've gotten.

I too questioned Solak's conclusion that teams running timing offenses should steer clear of Mayfield, and can only guess that he bases this on Mayfield's drop off in accuracy in "tight windows" since timing routes are often bang-bang, the window's there and then it isn't. Personally, given Mayfield's accuracy in all other areas, I think he can improve in this area too if these passes are going to be a regular part of the system he plays in. And if he can't sufficiently improve, then I would hope the OC would reduce the number of timing plays accordingly.

In any case, I just wanted to bring to your attention these question marks and see what you thought.

 

Double post