Excellent analysis all around Big Cat. Good stuff, thanks. I agree with your analysis on Rosen and that is why I view him as 3rd to Mayfield. Forgetting the whole stupid discussion on his parents and all that, I have strong concerns about his durability and longevity. When I was looking through game films to watch older games of these guys, it was almost always Rosen who was missing games that were big by UCLA's standards. Even if we ignored the fact that he got concussed twice in a 6 week period, he gets the shit beat out of him in a way the others don't. I feel that Rosen may have more upside than Mayfield but is simultaneously riskier. I totally agree with Darnold not having the giant red flags Rosen and Mayfield have, and in a sense that makes him the "safest" pick. That said, he's also likely the least ready to play on day 1 of the three. He's a guy who will benefit tremendously from a team with a strong plan for him. Finally, I also have Allen fourth and to me he isn't close to the other 3. I think a great fit for him would be the Giants AFTER the Giants trade down and accumulate a bunch of extra picks since they can afford to keep him sitting for a while. If I were any of the teams picking at the top, I wouldn't gamble on Allen when the other 3 choices are there. Potential is so enigmatic in the NFL and the overwhelming majority of quarterbacks statistically regress in completion percentage. While there are many more factors at play than completion percentage, you really need to be at least a 60% passer to have sustained success at the NFL level, and if he is able to accomplish that it would put him in a very stratified exception list, as there are so few who have done it the way he needs to. I'm sure some team out there will feel they are the ones who will get it out of him, but I personally wouldn't gamble with my job in this manner.
He wasn’t even talked about in the top 5 last year... At least by none of the Mayfield fan boys on here... he skyrocketed this year and most of it is hype.
Nobody was talking about him last year.. not even the experts... the “experts” mentioned Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Rudolph and Allen and started labelling this a QB draft year and even insinuating the Jets will tank for 1 overall but through all that hype he wasn’t even a whisper??
What exactly is the value of this talk? Honestly, I've never in my life heard of a quarterback who can attribute their NFL success to who talked about them over a year before they were drafted.
Guy, you need to give that BS up, and that's what it is, utter and complete BS! It doesn't make a rat's ass whether any of us were talking about a player a year before. That's just plain nuts. It doesn't even really matter who the "experts" were talking about a year earlier, either. Players rise and fall every year. Players who were loved by the experts bust, and players they never mentioned turn into solid starters, if not stars. If you used your own eyes looking at game film and decided that Mayfield wasn't a good prospect, I would think your vision needed checking, but would respect your opinion. I'm sorry, but this nonsense deserves no respect. You're better than that. The comment about most of Mayfield's popularity being hype is also utter BS. If you had bothered to do any research you would know that he's the only one of the top 4 QBs who has started for 4 years and shown steady progress, and his stats his sophomore year were as good or better than Darnolds, Rosens and Allens in their best year.
I think you have a point in that Darnold, Jackson and Rosen were the most talked about prospects at the beginning of last season, hence the "suck for Sam" expression. He was supposed to be the next great QB (and still may be) with all the analysts gaga over his skills. However, as NC points out: others rise and some fall, and as Gaius Sallustius Crispus, the Roman historian reminds us, "All fame.....is......fleeting.'' (I looked that up, so don't think there's any great intellect behind this post!) As highly touted as Darnold is, he has certainly come down a peg or two after his last season. So, as we approach draft day, what remains is the body of work, the stats, and the film. What was said a year ago, should have no bearing.
Mayfield wasn't on the map, I think perhaps he had a 3rd to 4th round grade on him coming into the season. Lamar had around the same grade. It was Darnold, Allen and Rosen. He made the best of his stock and for that you give him credit.
My point is Mayfield skyrocketed and wasn’t in the conversation last year and he had 3 years under his belt last year. He’s a 6’ tall, spread offence 1 year wonder. Do some research and look back what some of the best analysts in the country had to say on the QB pool this year. He wasn’t even a whisper. Alarm bells should be going off at this point! It’s not what I’m making him out to be it’s simply fact. I’ve watched plenty of Mayfield and he has a chance but he’s not the prospect you label him to be. He needs to go to the right system or he will be a bust. A system that runs a lot of shotgun and zone read. Mayfield would be terrible in a west coast offence and Bates runs a version of a west coast offence.
Ok but at least analysts who do this for a profession and most either played in the league or scouted in the league or managed in the league would know who he is and talk about him as an NFL prospect would they not? NOBODY knew who Baker Mayfield was last year and he had 3 years under his belt... Hype and a 1 year wonder made him an NFL prospect. Your fooling yourself if you think any different
Why would Mayfield be terrible in an offense that’s predicated on quick timing routes over the middle? He dominated that playstyle at OU
It doesn't matter that he wasn't in the conversation last year. The reason he may not have been in the conversation is his lack of height, the same reason so many posters are ruling him out now, which is a concern, but not the concern that many here have stated. I've done a HELL of a lot more research on Mayfield than you have. That much is glaringly apparent. I don't give a shit what the "best analysts" say. They're all wrong more than they're right. Many of them don't know any more than you or I do. I use my own eyes. It's obvious that you don't. You just blindly swallow what a bunch of talking heads say. You're totally wrong about Mayfield being terrible in a WCO. That shows your total ignorance of what the WCO is all about, and your total ignorance of what Mayfield's strengths and attributes are. You need to stop, because you're just making yourself look more and more ignoran and foolish.
Saying that none of them knew who he was last year is just flat out stupid. They knew who he was, they just weren't hyping him then. Your reasoning powers are sadly lacking.
There was a question and concern about Darnold coming out for the draft and they were very viable concerns. At 20, his age is his asset but it can also be his downfall if put out on the frying pan too early. jmo but I don't see any reason for the Jets, should they draft him, to play him over Bridgewater or McCown the first year, I think he'll be red-shirted because of this reason, but with a slight chance he'll play toward the end of the season. I can see the Jets playing Bridgewater to dangle him as trade bait to QB needy teams at that time.
You just answered it. He’s going to get torched if he starts throwing balls down the middle of the field. He won’t be able to see clearly. Just like Wilson didn’t see Butler jump the route on the super bowl play. Short QBs can’t see the middle of the field on short throws over the middle because of the OL.
All talk, no actual proof to dispute the argument. Just the norm name calling. No wonder SGB lost his damn mind.
You have no idea how much film I’ve seen on the QBs this year so don’t put yourself on a false high horse. There is a reason most including yourself who didn’t mention Mayfield last year. Mostly because he’s not a typical pro QB. Also he’s a product of a spread system. This draft has been hyped for over a year as a QB draft and until Baker won the Heisman he wasn’t in the conversation as he shouldn’t be. He’s a 2nd rounder at best but his personality has got him noticed in the press and you fell in love with him... kinda sad actually As for the WCO he would be a disaster. He can’t see the middle of the field unless in shotgun and in a short passing game over the middle it will be tips and interceptions gone wild. You think Sanchez had it bad he would make Sanchez look like Joe Montana.
