I think Kurt above made a post I mostly agree with in that I think any indecision is between Allen/Mayfield. Let's be honest, no one knows for sure, so all way have are our opinions based on things we read or see...Mine is that nothing has changed since the beginning of the college football season in terms of rankings of QBs in that Darnold/Rosen are the most sure things, Allen is probably number three and then Mayfield...And by sure thing I mean what most teams projections are as we all know there's no real sure thing...If there was a sure thing/QB that everyone was sure was head and shoulders above the rest, the Browns would already be negotiating with that player as he would be the most valuable asset in the game by far and there'd be no need for posturing. But I can see the back/forth on Allen/Mayfield. If you're the Jets and you have the #3 pick you need to be prepared for the realistic option that both Darnold/Rosen are off the board, then have a consensus as to which way to go...The only way to be sure will be to see how it all unfolds on draft day, but my guess is that Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Mayfield will be the way this goes, unless the Bills (or to a lesser extent the Browns) are just taken with Allen's size/arm etc... If you're the Jets you have to plan that picks 1-3 will be QBs, if #2 is not, then it's like heaven...but I don't see how the Giants don't draft a QB or trade to a team wanting to draft a QB...wouldn't seem to be the smart play if you're the NYG...But I think best case (realistic) scenario for the Jets is that Clev goes Allen (per Mort's report) which I doubt they will, then Giants take Darnold or get a king's ransom for him leaving Rosen to Jets...or Clev takes Darnold and Giants take Barkley, leaving Rosen again for the Jets...Anyway, I think best case scenario is Rosen getting to #3 as I don't believe Darnold falls out of the top 2...the worst case scenario, and by worst I mean least sure thing of the options, is that #3 comes down to Allen or Mayfield...again which I think is the actual debate for the Jets...then again, what the hell do I know. If I'm the Giants and have already decided I'm not drafting a QB unless Darnold is there, and Clev takes Darnold, my first call is to the Jets to see what if anything they can extract from NYJ to then still end up with the best non-QB...If you think about it, there's no downside for NYG as anything they get is a plus...Then if you're NYG, you could sit at #3 and try and offer up that pick to Denver (and still have two of either Barkley, Nelson or Chubb available) or basically take the 2018/2019/2020 draft from the Bills to trade with them...If Eli was 32 instead of 37 NYG would be perfectly situated...But personally, I think the NYG would be crazy to be picking this high and not take a QB...
It's certainly reasonable that if it comes down to Allen/Mayfield the Jets take the "safe" pick and take Allen, but I think they won't because while Allen has a lot of potential, the Jets aren't in a position to wait for him to achieve it. For that reason I think they take Mayfield if Rosen isn't there at 3. And I agree that if the Giants don't want a QB or Barkley at #2, they should dangle that pick to the Jets, and then consider trading down again. The Giants are sitting where we were supposed to be.
With Allen having such a low floor and great bust potential, there is no way that he is a "safe" pick or a "safer" pick than Mayfield. Yeah, sickening isn't it? We should be sitting in the prime position at #2, and then still have three second round picks. Damn Bowles!
Bowles just makes his OWN problems You KNOW he favors Vets..to death Whoever the Jets pick...Allen Mayfield Rosen ..whoever lights it up in preseason... will sit for an eternity even if by some miracle we are leading by 3 TDS in the fourth quarter...Andy Reid let Mahomes play at least a quarter this year and it was enough to convince him to let A Smith go...will Bowles be as smart? Bowles will let Teddy B be crippled or McCown run out of battery life before the kid sees a snap And no disrespect to Bridgewater but he is a brave guy relying on the reconstructed OL
These Mayfield fanboys need to enlighten us with the lists of other QB prospects in the past that were 6'5" 240 lbs athletic with elite arm talent who turned out to be busts. When you have been blessed with the type of God given ability Allen has, your floor from the Day 1 is higher than most. He could never improve his accuracy or processing speed and still end up being a more athletic bigger arm version of Blake Bortles. Cam Newton may never master the nuances of QB'ing and still remain successful until Father Time strips him of his athleticism. As long as Allen has his head on straight, all signs point that he does, there's ABSOLUTELY NO WAY IN HELL that he's the guy with greatest bust potential. From what I can tell the kid is not dumb, not a partier and he doesn't have an affinity for cough syrup. "Low floor" and "high bust potential" are just another in a long line of overused phrases like "boom or busts", "project", "not ready Day 1"...etc that get thrown around this time of year without any real thought put behind them.
Yeah... and I'll eat my hat if he's not in the top 3 QB's drafted. My assumption is that he'll be top 2.
Recently I scribbled down a range of QBs that reminded me of each prospect. I only started following the NFL in 2010, so I've only included QBs I've actually seen play. None of them is a perfect fit of course, but it gave me a feel for what I could see each player becoming. At this stage I'm a bit put off by both Mayfield and Allen, but that could be because they are under the most intense microscopes on this forum currently. Overall, it made me prefer Rosen as a prospect based on what I can see him becoming, and my preference for that style of play at QB. So take these ranges with a pinch of salt! And feel free to disagree / add your own thoughts on it . Sam Darnold: Andy Dalton (Does enough to keep his team in it) Sam Bradford (Talented QB who never quite put it all together, & always injured) Mark Sanchez (Never learnt how to read defenses) Andrew Luck (Gunslinger with great athletic ability) Alex Smith (Game manager who took a while to develop, 'safe' pick) Brett Favre (Gunslinger) Aaron Rodgers (Crazy talented QB who can pull something out of nothing) Josh Rosen: Kevin Kolb (Concussions and injuries killed his chances) Philip Rivers (Pocket QB who doesn't quite do enough to get his team over the hump) Tony Romo (Underrated QB overall, but good at reading defenses and driving down the field) Carson Palmer (Pocket QB who does well in a good system) Matt Ryan (Solid QB) Peyton Manning (Field General that would be peak Rosen) Josh Allen: Brandon Weeden (Could never develop touch) Jake Locker (Strong arm, poor accuracy, never fixed) Josh Freeman (Strong armed QB who struggled to read defenses) Ryan Tannehill (Athletic and erratic) Colin Kaepernick (Strong armed one read and run QB) Jay Cutler (Strong arm, inconsistent) Joe Flacco (Strong arm, inconsistent) Matthew Stafford (Strong arm, slowly got consistent but relies on arm talent too much) Cam Newton (Strong arm, athletic, inconsistent accuracy) Ben Roethlisberger (Put it all together) Baker Mayfield: Blaine Gabbert (Spread QB who failed hard in the NFL) Marcus Mariota (Still an unknown really) Ryan Fitzpatrick (Pre-snap read QB) Tyrod Taylor (One read and run QB) Russel Wilson (Short QB with ability to extend plays) Drew Brees (Short QB with outstanding accuracy and football IQ) And just for giggles, Mike White: Tom Brady (Really poor measurables at the combine, late round gem)
Pretty good except the parts about Mark Sanchez being better than Andy Dalton and Ryan Fitzpatrick being better than Marcus Mariota. And get rid of the ending.
The problem is you can play the same game with Mayfield. As in "These Allen fanboys need to enlighten us with the lists of other QB prospects in the past that put up Mayfield's college numbers and were drafted in the first round who turned out to be busts."
I never put a first round limit on my ask. There's been several examples of guys putting up big numbers in the Spread and busting in the NFL making Mayfield just bust-able as Allen if not more. Most of these high producing Spread QBs were not talented enough to earn 1st round grades. Colleges run the Spread specifically because it can yield a lot of production from very little talent and skill. The fact that Mayfield even has a 1st round grade (deservingly so I might add) DESPITE coming from the Spread is a testament to his talent and skill as a potential NFL QB NOT his production. The cardinal rule of scouting is that you evaluate talent NOT production. There's is a reason why Allen is in consideration for the 1st overall pick while Mayfield is not. That's because he is a SUPERIOR TALENT!!! That's NOT me being a fanboy or a Mayfield hater. Mayfield is a 1st rounder in this draft but NOT a top 3 talent.
IMO my limit is as justified as yours were. The point is to distinguish Mayfield from QBs like Colt Brennan who clearly weren't good enough for the NFL. You're free to disagree. I'm also aware that scouts look for talent rather than production. But that doesn't mean they're right. You have to consider both.
Jim Druckenmiller Drafted: Round 1, 26th Overall He had great size (6'5") for a quarterback and a cannon for an arm. The story was that the kid from Allentown, Pa. could throw a football 100 yards. Dan McGwire Drafted: Round 1, 16th Overall McGwire was a beast physically, a big guy who stood 6'8" and who was a strong-armed passer from San Diego State. JaMarcus Russell Drafted: Round 1, 1st Overall 6’6” - 250 lbs - Russell was said to possess a rare combination of arm strength and size. Ryan Leaf Drafted: Round 1, 2nd Overall 6’5” - 235 lbs Completed 55.4% his last year in college. Was said to have a bigger arm, prototypical skills and higher ceiling vs Manning.
no shit sherlock, you do realize this is an internet football fan board right? if i knew for sure how his game would translate id be working in the nfl. that said, i have watched enough football, especially college football to have the ability to have an opinion on whether the guy will be good in the nfl. so kindly shove it up your ass
i now see that your previous post is only because you appear to be a baker mayfield dick rider. lamar jackson has some special talents, i honestly dont know if they will translate, they very well may not he could be a superstar. mayfield on the other hand i predict to be a non factor in the league.
So you're saying Pretty or Hack are the same as Mahomes. That giving the QB the KNEW would be their starter in 2018 is the same as not playing 2 QBs who very well will be off the Jets? Can you even fake having a clue?
When I use the word "safe" (which is why I use the parentheses) I meant it in the way that a GM could say "Hey! How could we know he'd be a bust with all those physical gifts!" His big arm gives GMs cover.
None of these guys have the blend of size, arm talent and athleticism Allen possesses. Furthermore, it can be argued 2 of the 4 busted due failure to handle life off the field.
These GMs try their best but at the end of the day there is no way of knowing what's in a guy's heart. All things being equal, if everyone of those top guys get into to league and work on their craft as hard as a guy like Brady has Allen would end up being the best of them all. That's because he has much more to work with. If only Allen was a knucklehead, dumb as a doorknob and/or his subpar production could not be at least partly explained, then it would so easy. Then it would provide GMs "cover" to pass on him, a way out if you will. Unfortunately for them and to Mayfield fans, he's neither of those; he "seems" to be a good kid, who's as competitive as they come, smart, coachable and loves football. It would be criminal to pass on him for an inferior prospect. This is the dilemma facing Cleveland right now and potentially the Jets on Draft day.
