As someone who is high on Mayfield as an overall player, I’m unfortunately fairly confident in saying that his deep ball is too often left short. He repeatedly made receivers slow up and let defenders get back into the play on 35+ yard throws. I think footwork and late throwing are the biggest obstacles to his deep ball. He hit 57 MPH at the combine so I don’t think you can say he lacks natural arm strength. He just needs to get more consistent (less jumpy) in his base and really drive the ball deep instead of lofting it so much. I think it is definitely fixable but will take time. I agree that the shotgun/spread thing isn’t a huge concern, but it always needs to be briefly mentioned for guys coming out of these offenses. I trust that he has the intelligence and drive to adapt to any system. I also think that his innate playmaking ability will translate anywhere he goes. Lastly, I think it’s a fair point that him being a 4 year starter gives him an advantage, but it can also be viewed through the lens that he is almost 23 years old and nearing his physical ceiling while other guys are still maturing. So it’s both a plus and minus in that regard.
Well done! You are litetally right on with Darnold and Allen. Thanks for the post! Also the Eli comparison with Rosen is as good as any. Very similar players coming out of college
I agree that I don't want a game manager. I want someone who can create and who will be more aggressive. I don't think one has to have more TOs however, as there are QBs in the NFL who are aggressive, but don't throw many interceptions and who don't fumble. Because he's young, he could grow out of that and learn, but that's not a given, especially if he starts immediately, which he very likely could do. If he's the #1 pick there will be a lot of pressure for him to play early this season. His holding the ball low is more of a concern for me and that may be something that's not an easy fix. That is an ingrained habit by now, and we've already seen how many times he gets the ball knocked out of his hands, fumbles in college. That will likely double in the NFL if not corrected immediately. Mayfield doesn't have either of those problems. He takes too many sacks, but he doesn't fumble and he doesn't throw many interceptions. We'll just have to agree to disagree on him. I think I'd almost rather have Allen or Barkley than Darnold. I don't like him at all.
Mayfield wasn’t even on the map a year ago and you want to go all in on a 1 year wonder that ran a spread offence and is 6’ tall.. the hype has taken over I guess?
If we went simply based on where prospects were ranked a year ago, Christian Hackenberg would’ve been the #1 overall pick.
Nice job, I notice you didn't include Jackson in your analysis here. Did you not watch him play or are you not high on him?
I actually like him quite a bit, but I really only do these for QBs the Jets might take. In past years I’ve looked into the depth of the class because they can choose to take a quarterback at any point, but this year they’re almost certain to take one of these 4 so I focused in on them.
Gonna back up some of my claims with GIF's (if they actually embed like I hope they will) Claim #1: Josh Rosen tries to reset his feet outside of the pocket instead of throwing on the run Resetting there allows the defender to strip sack him He even stops to square up before throwing the ball away (all he had to do was flip the ball out of bounds) Very awkward attempt of resetting his feet while rolling to his left When he does try to throw on the run, his accuracy is no longer pinpoint like it is from the pocket
Its so Eli / Matt Ryan esque ... both aren't good QBs throwing on the run ... it will take repetition.
As I said I would like to see more of Baker winning deep outside the numbers, but I think he dominates the middle of the field which is where a ton of the NFL game takes place. Here are some throws that I like... A very nice deep post, he starts looking to his left then comes back to his right and fires. A good example of his ability to make reads in addition to a nice throw. Precision on this slant gives his receiver the opportunity to make a big run after the catch Just a great ball in tight red zone coverage He makes this in-stride throw while under heavy duress and changes his release angle to make sure it isn't batted down He loves these outside touch throws while rolling to his right Almost a carbon copy Wow he really loves rolling right Did I mention he loves touch throws while rolling to his right? I sort of got side tracked in the middle of this post haha but I never noticed how many of his best throws are touch throws to the sideline while rolling out. It's interesting. Hopefully the first couple GIFs were more so what you were looking for.
very nice examples for sure! and appreciate the work put into it. those were some good over the middle throws, my concern though is for his 2k college throws, there are very few examples of those where he threw them nicely. Also the roll outs don't make me comfortable. he needs to learn to play in the pocket in the NFL. He does throw very well on the run, but i never see him throw opposite field on the run or make many throws from the pocket. I still don't see any fades, deep outs (especially form the opposite hash) seam routes, or other really important NFL throws
They are lacking in his tape for sure. I think a big reason why is that the Oklahoma offense likes to attack the side of the field they’re closest to. The hashes in college are much wider than in the NFL and when Mayfield makes sideline throws, it’s usually to the near sideline. That’s not to say that he can’t make far sideline throws, but they aren’t well represented on his college tape.
Thanks again! Just from looking at these clips what I see (and I admit being biased), is that his attempt as setting his feet shows a deeply ingrained discipline in his mechanics, so to me that's a good thing, but I agree he has to either get quicker at it, or recognize when he doesn't have the chance and either throw on the run or throw it away. On the last clip I couldn't really tell where the pass was so I don't know how far off he was, but it does show he's capable of throwing on the run. He's still my #1.
yeah that's kinda my issue with him, it's not so much that he can't do stuff, it's that there isn't enough film proving he can do stuff and that's a hard pill to swallow for a 3rd overall pick you are betting your franchises near future on
I could've put this in the Mayfield thread, but since this thread is pretty active and most are discussing Mayfield, I'll put it here. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/05/b...y-oklahoma-offense-draft-audibles-protections This is a good article IMO because it compares how he handled stuff 3 years ago, and then how he handled it last year, and it shows his growth and his ability to adapt. It may be biased because his coach is making the comments, but he has the tape to back it up so its not like he's making stuff up. This ability to adapt is a big plus IMO for Mayfield. Whatever his shortcomings are, he seems to address them and fix them, and since every college player will have to change, some more than others, this adaptability is key.
I don't know why he wasn't on the "map" before last year. Maybe because he was a walk-on and didn't get much publicity. However, if you check his stats for his three years at OSU, it's amazing consistency with gradual improvement each successive year. Definitely not a one year wonder. Not many QB's have put up that level of stats for three straight years. To compare - Mayfield's sophomore season: 3700 yds, 36 TD's, 68% comp. Trubisky senior year: 3748 yds, 30 TD's, 68% comp. Wentz junior year (did not play a full senior year): 3111 yds, 25 TD's, 63% comp.
Uh, yeah, he WAS "on the map", just not in the consensus for the top three QBs at that point, But having repeated - and improved - his performance this year, that did expand the discussion to include him.
Great post. This is spot on. It truly mystifies me why so many posters intensely dislike Mayfield and don't want him. I can't decide if it's a bias against his not being prototypical size (cue "Short People" by Randy Newman), that he played in a spread offense, if it's his immature acts like grabbing his crotch, or a combination of those things, but the kid can play. In terms of arm, accuracy, football IQ, leadership, competitiveness, and understanding how to play the QB position, the kid has it all. Anyone that doesn't want him on the Jets is frigging nuts imo.
