Jay How does Tuesday storm look? It was showing snow and now it is showing Rain for Madison? Bring on the Saturday storm. No issues. Monday/Tuesday is problem for me.
Can you post a link to an image or model run indicating this. I'm trying to understand how you guys interpret them.
This could be a trend beater FM. Possible. I'm struggling with seeing how far north this could get but..well...lets see what the models bring us today. One thing is certain...at least temps...winter is not giving up without a fight all due to a very stubborn upper low in Canada which will not close the cold weather source...just keeps pumping it in..and it might be another 10 days before we can say spring.
Ok...see that 1030 high pressure to the west? Bad position is the number one red flag for a northern track. Should be over the Great Lakes to Maine. Secondly....the Jet flow...the way out for the storm racing northeast from southern MID Atlantic on out. Very progressive...very fast...nothing to slow this thing down. Third...Nothing in this map shows me any kind of coastal track...follow the precip to the coast and still...so many outs for this storm to race to sea. That's it in a nutshell.
Not saying it will not happen...it will...just think a more southern track affecting D.C to maybe Philly to south jersey for accum numbers. Could be wrong. Many sites keep talking about the trend of the winter for models to come north. Well..its possible..but its less than 48 hours away and I just don't see where that will happen. Could easily be wrong.
Hmmmm....now this could be a problem. Check out the temps and the jet flow on this one. Thank god its a model run and not for real because this one would send people to their local bridge...and jumping. Not a setup you want to see for almost mid April. Hopefully it will change. This is a much more classic winter storm set up for the coast...but again...too far south? Maybe...but this would concern me.
Storm is not even on life support,,,I will look and see what the overnight models say I always do but my plan is to NOT leave early and cut it short,,,I'm leaving Saturday morning,,, ,,ps models show different things for Monday and Tuesday so we might not be done just yet but as far as this one goes I'm rolling the dice and staying it looks like a nothing burger even down south, ,thoughts ?
Jay a few models are trying to bring this back to life in the Virginia area,,,that energy down South just looks weak and this entire setup is moving fast ,Im curious to see todays model runs but I think I'm almost out of the woods,,edit here = but models still giving Virginia to DC a chance at this,,we decided to leave Saturday morning for a few different reasons,,,,Jay or anyone else feel free to chime in with thoughts ?
I think Saturday morning will be fine sir. Believe you will not hit an issue until Virginia and that would be late night by the time you get there. Should be over by then. Will there be snow on the ground? In VA? MD? DE? Not sure...but it will be over.
JAY thank you " sir " ps You confident it will be OVER ?---- I have been looking GFS, 3 and 12K nams, and a few others and they have me worried about start and more importantly END time as they have it still precipitating 36 to 48 hours from now ,,,,
Current conditions (just north of NYC): blah Temp: 42 F Humidity: 79% Winds: s-10 mph Feels like: 36F 24 hr. forecast: .Tonight, .mostly dark, .changing to widely scattered light by morning . (courtesy Geo. Carlin) .
