quick format time on video down and distance, formation (SG = shotgun, UC = undercenter), PA (play action if applicable) Video link: 00 1st and 10, SG, clena pocket, plenty of time, sails the ball high over the head of the WR 9 yards downfield. poor throw on an easy completion to an open target 08 1st and 10, SG, PA, clean pocket, plenty of time (5 seconds from snap to throw), throws deep (about 60 yards in air) to a WR in man coverage downfield. a little underthrown and in front of the WR but WR makes the adjustment on it for a TD. Good throw but not a great one 18 2nd and 9, SG, PA, clean pocket, no pressure. he takes of an runs 27 3rd and 4, SG, PA, Clean pocket but he rolls out instead of standing in it, creating pressure. Completes a nice throw for a 1st down, but i can't tell the TE route due to the camera so i'll give him the benefit and call it a good throw to an open WR 35 3rd and 8, SG, free runner on the blitz, he rolls out to buy time, steps up in traffic and delivers a nice ball downfield for the 1st down 42 2nd and 15, SG, quick read delivered right away to an out route on the same side as the ball. nice through on a routine play 49 3rd and 5 (from the 7), SG, plenty of time in the pocket. he scrambles and eventually tries to take off but gets sacked for a loss of 2. total playtime 11 seconds. way too long, he needs to throw it away or take off sooner. they take the 3 points so can't complain too much here based on the down and situation 1:02 1st and 10, SG, quick throw outside on the WR screen. good throw placed well 1:11 2nd and 10, SG, clean pocket, plenty of time. sails the ball way high to a wide open WR for an incomplete 1:19 2nd and 20, SG, quick throw underneath on the drag route against a soft D. throw well but simple throw. WR and blockers do their job and pick up 22 yards for the 1st 1:28 1st and 10, SG, hits a wide open WR sitting down in the zone. nice throw, but an easy throw 1:42 1st and 10, SG, PA, easy quick throw to wide open TE thanks to the PA 1:47 1st and 10, SG, PA, nicely thrown ball dropped by the WR who looked up field before securing the catch 1:52 2nd and 10, SG, PA, WR screen again on the other side. nicely thrown ball on an easy throw 1:59 3rd and 5 (from the 11), SG, delayed blitz up the middle, he fades back under pressure and sails the ball high for an incompletion. 2:05 1st and 10, SG, avoids a delayed blitz up the middle and takes off running for a 1st down 2:14 2nd and 9, SG, PA, clena pocket plenty of time, he bails out early creating pressure on himself and throws a wobbler short for a few yard gain, but the WR makes a nice move and turns it to a big gian close to a 1st down 2:26 3rd and 3, SG, quick pass to an open WR, throw it too far out in front and WR reaches out but can't get to it. bad pass that should have been an easy 3rd down conversion
2:28 4th and 3, SG, free rusher and he panics and throws a bad pass that is picked off. Defense read him and jumped the route easily 2:41 2nd and 10, SG, pressure up the middle, he rolls out and completes the easy pass underneath nicely 2:49 2nd and 10, SG, PA, good protection and easy throw to wide open WR for a TD 2:56 2nd and 20, SG, blitz coming but o-line picks it up nicely and prtection is clean, he rushes the throw right into the defenses hands who drop and easy INT. terrible pass 3:02 3rd and 20, SG, clean pocket but he gives the play no time to develop and takes off running after 1 read 3:12 2nd and 8, SG, PA, he gets away from a sack and runs for a 1st down 3:22 1st and 10, SG, PA, quick screen. nice pass, but easy pass 3:33 3rd and 3, SG, PA, full house blitz gives him no time to throw. either called a sack or INT grounding 3:48 2nd and 10 (from his own endzone), SG, all day to throw, sails it high to a wide open WR for an incompletion 3:56 1st and 10, SG, PA, all day to throw (10 second play) rolls around and settles on a short gain. nice pass low and away though on the run 4:09 2nd and 6, SG, PA, thros an easy slant route behind the TE for an incompletion. poor throw 4:16 3rd and 6, SG, clean pocket, all day, throw behind the TE on a slant route again for an incompleiton 4:24 1st and 10, SG, clean pocket, nice throw on the slant route only 2 yards from the LOS though 4:29 1st and 10, SG, PA, all day, throws intermediate down the sideline to a wide open TE who jogs the 25+ yards YAC for a TD I'll do a conclusion here in a bit
So overall he threw 27 passes (26 pics and likely they INT grounding incomplete throw away) Trends 100% of snaps were from the shotgun about 50% of the time PA 90% of the time he had no pressure and a clean pocket 3rd down plays 2 for 8 (25%) 2 good passes for a 1st (both to wide open targets) 4 bad passes (should have been complete but bad throws) 2 times he had to throw it away or take a sack. 1 wasn't his fault he had no time, the other he took way to long with the ball What he did good made most of the throws you are supposed to make completes the short quick routes nicely threw a pretty nice 60 yard bomb for a TD buys time with his legs, can take off for positive yardage throws well on the run what he did bad was poor throwing the slant route inside didn't handle pressure very good doesn't progress through his reads often. 1 read then scramble. doens't stay in the pocket. gets "happy feet" passes over 8 yards or so inside sail high or are thrown behind the WR 9 were bad passes out of 26 thrown (not including the throwaway) mostly high, but a few behind. every incomplete was his own fault with the -exception of 1 pretty bad drop he threw a bad INT and a 2nd ball that should have been picked but was dropped has a tendency to "jump throw" or throw off his tippy toes in the pocket What you can't see due to the offense lack of "NFL throws" (deep outs, deep ins, fade's, sideline routes, back shoulders, throwing WRs open, anticiaption in tight coverage, fitting the ball into tight windows) no snaps under center very few progressive reads conclusion: what i seen in this game was a QB manage the game. he didn't make many big throws or do good on 3rd down, but he made a lot of safe short throws allowing the WRs to get YAC and make plays and took advantage on big plays when his wide receivers were very open. nothing on this film says 3rd overall pick or NFL FQB.
I prefer this analysis of Mayfield's first two throws. https://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2017/11/17/16668928/five-throw-friday-baker-mayfield-vs-texas Flick of the wrist Naturally, the first play I show you is a bomb. Mayfield’s 1st throw of the game he got through his progressions and hit the receiver a little high, but it should’ve been caught. Count that as a drop. The 2nd play was a 54-yard touchdown. 3 things jump out at me here; going through your progressions, keeping your eyes downfield, & flicking your wrist for 60 yards effortlessly. Here’s the play: Let’s talk about the progressions first. The route concept from top to bottom was post-out-flat. Judging by his helmet Mayfield wanted the out route. It’s cropped out, but it wasn’t open. He comes down to the flat route to the tight end and comes off that quickly. You can tell he knows the offense by how fast he’s going through his progressions. That’s a big deal. Instead of scrambling he keeps his eyes downfield and shows off patience in the pocket. So we’re 2 for 2 here. The process has been great and he hasn’t even thrown the ball. He sees the receiver has a step on the corner and with zero effort he heaves the ball 60 yards in the air downfield. That’s impressive. Some guys would need to crow hop and put everything they have into making that throw. If you want to be nitpicky you’ll say that the ball is underthrown. I’m fine with the placement here. You don’t want to lead them out of bounds. Give him a chance to make a play since he already has position. An all-around hell of a play by Mayfield here.
i''ll elaborate on the plays you picked out. first though i will say, it's very sad that people here, instead of forming their own opinion, opt to post someone else's so often. also that site is a chargers site? so it's made by a chargers fan who has some weird assesments to say the least (he thinks jackson is a better QB then baker FYI and that darwin james is the best defensive player in the draft over chubb and edmunds) but none the less lets break down this further first he titles this throw "flick of the wrist" which it's anything but. this is a full on wind up "giving all i got captain" type of throw. it's clearly not an easy flick of the wrist throw, it's very high effort. now i called it a good throw, because throwing 60 yards downfield is tough and he completed it, but here is why it's not a fantastic throw as you can see he fades his body to the left causing the ball to go left now we can't see how big his lead was on the DB due to camera, but by the time they are in view he still has a setp and a half, he's also adjusted his route already breaking in on the ball here you can see the ball hanging as now they are stride for stride. what should have been uncontested in stride is now a jump ball. you can also see the WR giving the "NFL shove" to the DB he makes the tough catch, but the DB who was beat now had a good chance at the ball that's why i don't consider it fantastic, but still it was a good pass all things considered. he even says in his analysis "if you want to be nit picky it was underthrown" so he sees it, he just disregards it. In short though, i'd really like to see people post THEIR analysis instead of posting links to other people. for all I konw someone could be posting my analysis as proof on another forum instead of doing their own research. it honestly just comes off as lazy
I mostly agree with your assessment here, but the "flick of the wrist" is a bit of an exaggeration. No, he didn't throw with all his effort, but he did put some "ooomph" into it. And while maybe a perfect throw would've allowed the receiver to catch it without breaking stride, that's being picky. He deiinitely shows the arm strength he needs to have.
wasn't his assessment, it's from the link he posted on some guy who blogs and is a chargers fan. Also the same guy said jackson is a better QB then mayfield and that james is the best defensive player in the draft over chubb and edmunds just for a point of reference
Hey SGB, thanks for taking the time and effort to break down that film! I do think you're being more critical than you would be if it were Allen, but I also see some "cracks" in Baker's game, although I believe they're fixable. The main negative I see in this footage is that as the game wore on, and it was close, he seemed to press, and his accuracy suffered, and he did tend to bail too quickly to running. That said, he did make a lot of nice throws, and he was able to move around and buy time to find open receivers usually - when he had the patience to. He also shows a fluid elusiveness and an ability to read the field and know where the pressure and seams are. Off your list of negatives: was poor throwing the slant route inside - They weren't great, but they weren't "poor", definitely needs work. didn't handle pressure very good - I don't fully agree. Mostly he did, but as the game got late, he did seem to get frustrated and antsy. Overall though he sensed pressure well and escaped it. Towards the end he bailed too quickly to often as you said. doesn't progress through his reads often. 1 read then scramble. - Again, earlier in the game he showed multiple reads, but later seemed to lose patience. doens't stay in the pocket. gets "happy feet" - His "happy feet" enabled him to move when needed and I don't think this contributed to making him leave the pocket too soon. passes over 8 yards or so inside sail high or are thrown behind the WR - He threw a couple of bad passes, as all QBs will do, but that doesn't make this a throw he can't make. Based upon his accuracy on other throws he can make these, and in another game/situation probably does. I see the problem more stemming from impatience and frustration which he's going to need to work on. 9 were bad passes out of 26 thrown (not including the throwaway) mostly high, but a few behind. every incomplete was his own fault with the -exception of 1 pretty bad drop - 17 for 26 is a pretty good effort, and Texas wasn't chopped liver. In a way I look on this as a positive in that he didn't have an easy time of it, but hung in there and got the win despite a so-so day personally. he threw a bad INT and a 2nd ball that should have been picked but was dropped - That happens to all QBs, he's human. has a tendency to "jump throw" or throw off his tippy toes in the pocket - So doing what he needs to do to be effective is a "negative"? Actually it shows that he knows how to adjust for his "lack of height". What you can't see due to the offense lack of "NFL throws" (deep outs, deep ins, fade's, sideline routes, back shoulders, throwing WRs open, anticiaption in tight coverage, fitting the ball into tight windows) - The tape was short and chopped so hard to really see everything, but I saw him making throws into some tight windows that his receiver didn't hang onto. I'll ding him for the same thing I ding Allen: not anticipating better and forcing the ball into the tight window and making it a hard ball to catch, but sometimes that's all you get to do. For the most part though he showed good anticipation and allowed his receivers a good chance to catch the pass. no snaps under center The no snaps under Center isn't a problem IMO because these days most teams run at least half their plays in SG - the Iggles did 70% of the time - and I saw him going through his progressions, at least through most of the game, very few progressive reads -See previous comment. So I see some of your complaints, but I don't think they're as fatal as you seem to. I would suggest that you go back and watch some of Allen's tape using the same criteria you used here. I think you'll see many of the same issues with Allen. Again, thanks for the effort!
If you read my allen thread, you'll see I was equally critical. This is the 3rd overall pick, not a flyer on some guy in the 7th round. Our franchises future relies on this pick as does mac and bowles job. the difference in the right vs wrong pick here results in being a playoff caliber team, or sucking for another 4-5 years. it's a huge deal. So with all that in mind, I don't think being overly critical is a thing. I'm sure the jets scouting department is watching the living fuck out of every bit of film on all of the top 4 guys and criticizing every sneeze, twitch, cough, step they take. I'm not comfortable with "good enough" in this position personally. was poor throwing the slant route inside - They weren't great, but they weren't "poor", definitely needs work. - he missed back to back easy slant throws. he only threw like 3 in the game and missed on 2 of them. those are easy NFL throws you expect a QB to make nearly 100% of the time didn't handle pressure very good - I don't fully agree. Mostly he did, but as the game got late, he did seem to get frustrated and antsy. Overall though he sensed pressure well and escaped it. Towards the end he bailed too quickly to often as you said. - he does show good ability to buy time, but as you said he gets antsy and bails too soon. he also doens't get out and make "intermediate throws" he had the 1 chuck it deep but the rest were short under 5 yard throws. You'll also notice he doens't throw any outs from the opposite hash mark. that's an important throw to make. If he cna't make that, defenses in the NFL will scheme against it easily. as evidence on his 4th down INT the defense knew what he could do, they brought the house and jumped the underneath resulting in an INT. they knew he wasn't going over their head while under pressure. QBs in the NFL need that threat. also on the dropped INT was the only intermidate throw he tried making under pressure and he threw it right at the defensive player and should have been picked doesn't progress through his reads often. 1 read then scramble. - Again, earlier in the game he showed multiple reads, but later seemed to lose patience. - Which is a red flag for sure. Most NFL games are decided by a TD or less, he needs to play well late in the game and not do that to be successful passes over 8 yards or so inside sail high or are thrown behind the WR - He threw a couple of bad passes, as all QBs will do, but that doesn't make this a throw he can't make. Based upon his accuracy on other throws he can make these, and in another game/situation probably does. I see the problem more stemming from impatience and frustration which he's going to need to work on. - but when the sample size is that small it's cause for concern. I know all QBs will do it from time to time. but 2 out of 10 is much better then 2 out of 3. 9 were bad passes out of 26 thrown (not including the throwaway) mostly high, but a few behind. every incomplete was his own fault with the -exception of 1 pretty bad drop - 17 for 26 is a pretty good effort, and Texas wasn't chopped liver. In a way I look on this as a positive in that he didn't have an easy time of it, but hung in there and got the win despite a so-so day personally. - numbers wise yes, but when 14 of those 17 were "layup" throws, and the majority of actual tough passes were the bad one it's a major concern at the NFL level where you don't see many layup throws he threw a bad INT and a 2nd ball that should have been picked but was dropped - That happens to all QBs, he's human. - I agree, but again sample size. when you are only attempting a handfull of NFL throws and failing on a majority, it's a scary thing. If he was making tough throws 90% of the time it's much more forgivable. If PFF is to be trusted 80% of all his passes were to wide open WRs. He won't have that luxury in the NFL has a tendency to "jump throw" or throw off his tippy toes in the pocket - So doing what he needs to do to be effective is a "negative"? Actually it shows that he knows how to adjust for his "lack of height". - If he can do it successfully that's fine, the issue is those awkward throws were sailing high or thrown behind the receivers no snaps under center The no snaps under Center isn't a problem IMO because these days most teams run at least half their plays in SG - the Iggles did 70% of the time - and I saw him going through his progressions, at least through most of the game, - the eagles are the exception and wentz was barely over 60%. even if the NFL average is 50% (i read somewhere it was like 45ish %) that means half the time he's passing in the NFL he'll have to do something he's never done before. it's tough to take a guy 3rd overall with 0 film or experiance doing something he'll need to do in the NFL half the time
Of course I read your Allen thread and I still disagree - you weren't/aren't as "picky" with Allen and you make excuses for his shortcomings, which you don't do at all for Mayfield. I think I've shown you my objectivity, and while obviously not fully agreeing with you on all points, agreed that Mayfield isn't "perfect" and has some holes. Can these be fixed, I believe so, but honestly I don't know how big of a problem each is to fix. My opinion is that Allen's reliance on his big arm is a hard problem for him to relearn after all these years relying on it. Whereas Mayfield;s problems seem more fixable, but I admit this could be bias. I won't respond to each counter-argument you made because this post will become encyclopedic in length, but I do want to say that making a determination that Mayfield "cant throw a slant pass" based upon 3 throws isn't valid. If he threw 10 more he might complete 7 of them. I'd want to see this problem repeated over several games to say he "can't" throw the pass.
I mean you say, but it would mean a lot more if you can give me an actual example from my post where i gave "allen" a pass but didn't give one to mayfield. I gave mayfield a few passes ont he account of "trying to make a play" and it "not hurting the team in the long run" and a pass on an under thrown ball because it was still completed and was a deep throw. If you want to give me a game example i'll watch it for slant passes over the middle 5+ yards and see how many he attempts and completes.
I don't have time to do this now, but will try to get to it ASAP. But you could just go re-read the play by play breakdowns you did of Allen and see where you had almost no negatives as absolutely stated as you do about Mayfield. I will undertake this exercise myself, but as a I said it might be a little while.
I had quite a few negatives on allen. even some where i didn't give him the benefit of the doubt but i gave it to mayfield. I was actually a little harsher on allen so that I wouldn't get these types of comments.
It's the same reoccurring themes when you watch Mayfield game tape: "Clean pocket", "plenty of time", "wide open", "easy throw"...etc...etc. Wash, rinse repeat.
Mayfield has MASTERED his offense and VERY GOOD to GREAT decision maker, but that is where it ends for me. His college production deserves first round consideration but top 3 is crazy talk IMO.
Utter Nonsense! Your bias is showing. If Mayfield had such a clean pocket all the time he wouldn't be cited as being the best QB in the draft in extending plays, creating, moving in the pocket, and wouldn't be criticized for taking too many sacks or not recognizing blitzes.
