Agreed and obviously not that I'm pessimistic or anything, but if some team is going draft Josh Allen and develop all of those tools he has into becoming a franchise QB, is it really gonna be the Jets that do it?
@SolidGoldBowles @Borat I enjoy reading your opposing views. It really is a pleasure to read it. Thanks guys.
to be fair, taylor isn't really a QB we should be shooting for. Every team gave up on him and he's starting for cleveland out of desperation. he's far from a FQB. he's also a lot more mobile then mayfield which has allowed him to stick around in the NFL. 1/3rd of the NFL coming from a spread offense doesn't mean a lot. it just means 1/3rd had to learn an offense and did. one example is cam newton. but he's a massive guy who is running a option offense in carolina something mayfield couldn't run so not a fair comparison at all. also Wrs sucking and dropped passes aren't mutually exclusive. mayfields WRs were contantly getting open. PFF said 80% of mayfields pases were in "open windows" aka wide open targets. That happens in the spread offense when you have a good OC and good targets. he hasn't had to throw into tight windows like you do in the NFL all the time. Darnold, rosen, and allen all ran pro offense and had to throw into tight windows way more often. If you claim allen had 7.84% dropped that makes him an 63% passer if you negate the drops. Personally college stats are meaningless for the most parts when you transfer it to the NFL. I'd rather take a QB who has run a pro style offense, shown the ability to make all the throws you need to in the NFL, and a player who put a shitty team on his back to salavge a decent season, over a QB that hasn't shown any of that and inflated his stats with "layups" I broke down films before and allen throws some excelelnt routes, while mayfield struggles hitting WRs in stride and making NFL level throws
Boy draft day is going to be both exciting and excruciating. Here's hoping that for ONCE we get the cream of the draft.
But PFF also said that hitting open receivers is a high predictor of success. After all, if a QB can't complete passes when receivers are open, he's going to struggle, and this is exactly what we see with Allen. In fact, he often lags in deciding if his receiver will be open and then "makes up for that lag" by throwing his fastball. Many of the "drops" attributed to his receivers are due to having to try and catch a hard thrown ball that's contested. If Allen were better at reading situations he might have easier windows, but he also struggles with hitting open receivers.
that's not what the film shows at all. I see allen fitting the ball into tight windows and making NFL throws, and mayfield missing often high to wide open WRs limiting their YAC ability
Even when you analyze the "NFL throws" though, but look at the entire data (not highlight film), you still have Allen way down and Mayfield on top: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-can-pff-data-predict-success-at-the-next-level .
while i appreciate what they do, and it's a good site overall, even they said it's a very small sample size and "they did the best they could"
Brees ran a spread offense. https://whodatwarriors.com/2015/04/17/can-a-spread-offense-quarterback-play-under-center-in-the-nfl/
You say a lot of good things that makes me think you are unbiased but then go ahead and say something like this that is just downright false. None of the metrics or film speak to what you say above. In fact, they show the complete opposite. When throw aways and dropped passes are taken into account Mayfield is on target 84% of the time, so he really just doesn’t miss many throws at all. His WR’s have he highest YAC because he hits them in stride more than all other qbs in this class. I get people like Allen’s huge arm, potential and all, but wish they stuck to that vs making up stuff to support their argument...
Under 30 attempts per game average + little to no layups = 56 CMP% Over 30 attempts per game average + a lot of layups = 70 CMP%
Sure, we can discount everything but the highlight film you saw. We can ignore adjusted completion rate, rating on throws of 20-plus yards downfield, and passer rating under pressure, QBR, completion, etc, and excuse that for poor teammates and tough opposition. We will look at the highlight video and combine results and say Allen is the best thing since sliced bread, even though analysis of his entire data set indicated otherwise, and the poor completion rate is unparalleled to any successful modern day NFL QB. I hope Browns will do just that.
PFF themselves said that 80% of mayfields throws were in "open windows" you can't judge a QB based on 20% of their work at best. on top of that if 80% of his Wrs were wide open and he only completed 70% of his passes that's kinda a cause for concern isn't it? again this is "stats and PFF analysis" not even my opinion. I also don't think Allen is the best thing since sliced bread either so IDK why people keep inferring that. If i had to pick a QB as the "best thing since sliced bread" in this draft it's bradford.
There’s a big difference between a college offense that manufactures open receivers & throwing windows compared to scanning the field,going through reads,finding the open man & delivering an accurate ball w good velocity in a tight window.”open” in the NFL is drastically different than the types of throws neccesarry in Oklahoma’s offense. After hearing that PFF footage I thought there was a disconnect with that portion.Hitting open receivers or “easy throws” in the NFL is drastically different than that at the college level in a non pro style offense. That doesn’t mean Mayfield can’t do that..but PFFs explanation did not let Mayfield off the hook or give their M.O any justification
nope http://www.pastapadre.com/2010/06/18/ncaa-football-11-team-by-team-list-of-offensive-styles here is a highlight film you can see him running pro style offense He also looks much better on film there then mayfield and was a 2nd round pick
The article you linked to is from 2010. Brees was drafted in 2001. When he played for Purdue they ran a spread. http://www.purduesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/101399aaa.html http://www.espn.com/espn/wire/_/section/ncf/id/3607167 http://digitaledition.chicagotribun...spx?guid=aaa60523-bc0f-47b3-88d3-d3ebf12321f1 http://smartfootball.blogspot.com/2009/01/rise-and-fall-of-spread-via-purdues.html https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...618/jeff-brohm-purdue-head-coach-offense-2017
look at the thread i made brekaing down a highlight reel. If you want me to break down a video of a game post it. i made that offer to everyone. I even broke down one of allen's worst games upon request
look at the video of brees i posted. He wasn't playing a full spread. it was a "mixed" offense. Tiller mixed in a lot of spread philosophies and reading your articles, basically led to the large amount of spread offenses we see in college today. but in the early days when brees was there ti was mixed. You can see that on the video i posted
Not according to NFL Draft Scout. Here's their old scouting report on Brees. https://www.canalstreetchronicles.c...ers-baker-mayfield-nfl-draft-scouting-combine Negatives...Has lived in the shotgun his entire college career. Played in a classic spread offense. No idea how to play under center or take drops...Lack of size is going to be a concern. Though not extremely short, he’s giving up vital inches that will make vision and healthy primary questions at the next level...Somewhat reckless at times with his decision-making. Will throw into tight coverages, trusting in his accuracy that will lead to interceptions in the NFL...Can have a bad tendency to hold the football trying to keep plays alive. Opens him up to frequent hits and also fumbling the football.
